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Will US Legacy of Debt Spur Next Crisis?

By TOM RAUM
,
AP
posted: 127 DAYS 10 HOURS AGO
comments: 5
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WASHINGTON (July 4) - The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It's the national debt.
The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.4 trillion — equivalent to about $37,000 for each and every American. And it's expanding by over $1 trillion a year.
The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.
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"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.
Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services — or a combination of both — may be the inevitable consequences.
The debt is complicating efforts by President Barack Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.
Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year — the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.
The United States went into the red the first time in 1790 when it assumed $75 million in the war debts of the Continental Congress.
Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary, said, "A national debt, if not excessive, will be to us a national blessing."
Some blessing.
Since then, the nation has only been free of debt once, in 1834-1835.
The national debt has expanded during times of war and usually contracted in times of peace, while staying on a generally upward trajectory. Over the past several decades, it has climbed sharply — except for a respite from 1998 to 2000, when there were annual budget surpluses, reflecting in large part what turned out to be an overheated economy.
The debt soared with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and economic stimulus spending under President George W. Bush and now Obama.
The odometer-style "debt clock" near Times Square — put in place in 1989 when the debt was a mere $2.7 trillion — ran out of numbers and had to be shut down when the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008.
The clock has since been refurbished so higher numbers fit. There are several debt clocks on Web sites maintained by public interest groups that let you watch hundreds, thousands, millions zip by in a matter of seconds.
The debt gap is "something that keeps me awake at night," Obama says.
He pledged to cut the budget "deficit" roughly in half by the end of his first term. But "deficit" just means the difference between government receipts and spending in a single budget year.
This year's deficit is now estimated at about $1.85 trillion.
Deficits don't reflect holdover indebtedness from previous years. Some spending items — such as emergency appropriations bills and receipts in the Social Security program — aren't included, either, although they are part of the national debt.
The national debt is a broader, and more telling, way to look at the government's balance sheets than glancing at deficits.
According to the Treasury Department, which updates the number "to the penny" every few days, the national debt was $11,518,472,742,288 on Wednesday.
The overall debt is now slightly over 80 percent of the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, as measured by the gross domestic product.
By historical standards, it's not proportionately as high as during World War II, when it briefly rose to 120 percent of GDP. But it's still a huge liability.
Also, the United States is not the only nation struggling under a huge national debt. Among major countries, Japan, Italy, India, France, Germany and Canada have comparable debts as percentages of their GDPs.
Where does the government borrow all this money from?
The debt is largely financed by the sale of Treasury bonds and bills. Even today, amid global economic turmoil, those still are seen as one of the world's safest investments.
That's one of the rare upsides of U.S. government borrowing.
Treasury securities are suitable for individual investors and popular with other countries, especially China, Japan and the Persian Gulf oil exporters, the three top foreign holders of U.S. debt.
But as the U.S. spends trillions to stabilize the recession-wracked economy, helping to force down the value of the dollar, the securities become less attractive as investments. Some major foreign lenders are already paring back on their purchases of U.S. bonds and other securities.
And if major holders of U.S. debt were to flee, it would send shock waves through the global economy — and sharply force up U.S. interest rates.
As time goes by, demographics suggest things will get worse before they get better, even after the recession ends, as more baby boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits.
While the president remains personally popular, polls show there is rising public concern over his handling of the economy and the government's mushrooming debt — and what it might mean for future generations.
If things can't be turned around, including establishing a more efficient health care system, "We are on an utterly unsustainable fiscal course," said the White House budget director, Peter Orszag.
Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation's true liabilities.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments.
That would put the nation's full obligations at $56 trillion, or roughly $184,000 per American, according to this calculation.
Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. Active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.
2009-07-04 00:59:50

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WWWelling

01:52 AMJul 04 2009

Higher tax rates almost always result in LOWER revenues. Government doesn't pay it's bills based on rates, but on actual revenues plus borrowing. The actual revenue is down by around 40% right now due to unemployment, and lost income for those working. The answer is NOT to impose Crap our Trade, and higher income tax rates on anyone. SPENDING discipline is what has been lacking, not revenues. The private sector is where wealth is created. It needs to be allowed to create it, but Obama and all the dems are philosophically commited to higher taxes, so they won't do it. Look for the deficit to continue to soar as they tax energy and income even more.

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(1)

DCaptJohn

11:54 PMJul 04 2009

I mean really...this guy has never had a job, never really worked, is a drug abuser, a former dealer, an affirmative action child, what did America really expect was going to happen? Of course with help like Barney Frank, Nanci Pelosi, and Dodd how cold anything be different. The moron who wrote this article says we need to fix health care to get the economy fixed? That means spending more money, how can intelligent people read such stupidity and not go insane? I have seen all this before in 1976. Just wait you haven't seen anything yet.

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(5)

woodup2

06:44 PMJul 03 2009

Today in America it is more important to count those 129 "lost"votes for the comic from Minnesota than to count absent servicemen's ballots from Iraq.

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(6)

woodup2

06:42 PMJul 03 2009

EVERYONE should remember that the big problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of someone else's money!

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(6)

SeanLean

05:48 PMJul 03 2009

Lemme see here now...six months of Obozo, The Socialist Fascist Turd of Doom, and we have a wrecked economy, unemployment shooting past 10 percent, a national debt that surpasses interstellar dimensions, and, accordingly, foreign countries refusing to buy our insanely high debt anymore. Ohh, and we can't overlook the "transparency" he promised. Remember how he promised to let everyone see ***all*** the bills for days and days on his little web site before they passed into law? Oops, guess he forgot about that. And how about his promise of "absolutely NO tax increases of ANY kind" for people making less than $250,000, which was sometimes lower? Hey, HR 2454 is a HUGE and WHOPPING tax increase for ALL Americans. Oops, guess he forgot about that, too. And how about those 5 to 10 million shovel-ready jobs he promised us? Oops, guess he forgot about that as well. It is obvious The Turd has major problems with memory and keeping campaign promises.

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The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It\'s the national debt.