An interesting article over at The American Spectator verifies what I've been hearing from other sources. Democrat operatives are confirming that the Foley story wasn't supposed to be released until about 10 days before the election - and it was supposed to be the culmination of a series of orchestrated October surprises, rather than the beginning.
What changed? Poll numbers. Republicans were coming back strongly -- Democrat hopes were evaporating. With the new age of media and the Internet, Democrats figure that a poll swing that results from a story like Foley would last about two weeks before voters start paying attention to real issues again - and that's nationally. In individual races, where often local issues are paramount in a non-presidential election year, the swing benefit from such a story might even be shorter (see NYT story later in this post):
"You pull out the bright shiny things that distract the average American voter away from the issues we all know they care about -- national security, anti-terrorism -- and focus on the ugly: Foley and Iraq."
...'Republicans had to have known we'd be looking to change the national debate,' says a House Democrat leadership aide. 'You had our leadership looking at cratering polling numbers. A majority within grasp wasn't drifting away, it was being yanked back by Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Foley had to be bumped up on the scandal schedule. That makes a lot of sense given where we were two weeks ago, and where we are now.' "
As much as Katie Couric et al try to keep the Foley fires burning, there is now enough evidence that this was a political stunt -- and that no one out there knows where this is heading. Leaders and operatives from both parties are going to be put under oath by the FBI and the Justice Department in the investigation of a cover-up.
Democrats beware -- there was just too much coordination beween liberal groups like CREW, a fake blog, American Family Voices, David Corn's McCarthyesque "Gay Staffers List", and Nancy Pelosi to be a coincidence. Now that evidence has surfaced that the communicant with Mark Foley of the IMs (not the e-mails, which not even Brian Ross was willing to write about in August) was a legal consenting adult, the story turns into a gay version of the Clinton-Lewinsky Scandal. The differences are homosexuality, a page instead of an intern, and there being no physical contact in the Foley story.
The latest twist, that congressional staffers like Kirk Fordham "warned" Hassert's office three years ago about Foley's penchant for young men, lacks any detail about what the warning was, and is contradicted by Fordham's own documented actions regarding the Foley Scandal.
If no evidence that any crime was being committed, what can be done about someone like Foley except what the National Journal is saying happened?:
Foley's friends ruefully speak of knowing that Foley was friendly with congressional pages. One recalls jokingly telling Foley to be careful not to confirm a stereotype about sexual predators. Foley laughed, a friend says.When the Foley story first hit, I was furious. Based on what I was reading and hearing, I thought that Mark Foley was at the very least a sexual predator and a pedophile. Now, even according to Andrew Sullivan, no evidence exists that he is either. Right now I'm glad he's gone (he seems like a time-bomb waiting to explode), and we may still find out that he has committed crimes against young children. But right now this whole thing is looking more and more like a political hit piece designed to surpress the conservative vote. And according to the New York Times, it's not looking as if it's going to work long-term:
...But then, in the fall of 2005, a page sponsored by Rep. Rodney Alexander of Louisiana, complained. After Foley had furtive discussions with House officials, his friends warned him to police himself. And one former Foley staffer recalls asking the lawmaker directly whether there was anything more serious floating around. Foley, according to the former aide, said no.
...Foley's former chief of staff, Kirk Fordham, last spring promised both Rep. John Shimkus, the chairman of the page board, and a top assistant to Hastert that he would make sure Foley behaved himself. At that time, Fordham was the chief aide to Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fordham's assurances, according to this account, apparently were enough to persuade Hastert's staff not to recommend further action
...Fordham told ABC News that in 2003 he warned Hastert's powerful chief of staff, Scott Palmer, that he was worried about Foley's penchant for doting on male pages. Palmer, according to Fordham, subsequently notified Hastert. Palmer responded that Fordham's version of events is untrue. And a House leadership aide wondered aloud why Fordham, who professed to be surprised by Foley's conduct on Monday, was saying two days later that he remembered having long-standing anxieties.
But in dozens of interviews here in southeastern Virginia, a conservative Christian stronghold that is a battleground in races for the House and Senate, many said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen. "This is Foley's lifestyle," said Ron Gwaltney, a home builder, as he waited with his family outside a Christian rock concert last Thursday in Norfolk. "He tried to keep it quiet from his family and his voters. He is responsible for what he did. He is paying a price for what he did. I am not sure how much farther it needs to go."So the ABC News polls out this morning reflect the American public being hit in the face with the Foley Scandal and its spin, and the trickle-down from that. But it reflects national opinion, not local races. The local polling will take a hit as well, but only for as long as local issues (or the War on Terror and Immigration) aren't the focus. The more the Democrats use Foley in their ads and the media obsesses over it, the more of a chance that the Democrats will experience a blow-back from the voters. It sometimes takes a while, but generally voters know when they're being played for fools - and don't appreciate it. This Foley business certainly doesn't help the Republicans, but it's not the fatal blow that is being portrayed in the media, either.
The Democratic Party is "the party that is tolerant of, maybe more so than Republicans, that lifestyle," Mr. Gwaltney said, referring to homosexuality.
Reader Comments ( Page 3 of 12)
31. the 'its the democrats' theory being offered up by the gop re: foley isnt getting ANY traction....and its no wonder it isnt.
the republicans have worn out the 'blame the democrats' card they have carried for almost 2 decades and a weary electorate has become immune to the sound of it.
at this point, each time a republican in denial claims 'this is a democratic scandal" it hurts the gop. republicans have run on the claim that they and ONLY they are the 'party of responsibility" and Family values....yet here they are once again trying to weasle out of being held responsible for their actions and non actions re: mark foley by blaming someone else (the democrats) and it doesnt come off as very moral to be more outraged over the LEAK of the foley scandal then the scandal itself.
people who are trolling the internet to place ridiculous conspiracy theory excuses for why the republican houseleadership did nothing to get rid of foley are speaking only to the choir, a choir who's membership seems to be shrinking...
m at 7:03PM on Oct 10th 2006
32. My whole problem with this whole situation is the double standards of the demos - why wasn't there outrage at clinton when he had sex - oh excuse me blowjobs aren't sex - with someone who worked for him?????? coverup or not, political campaigning or not - it is double standard at work to the fullest. I'm sick of all of the beltway officals.
ken single at 7:05PM on Oct 10th 2006
33. You right-wing spinners are all alike. You will lie whenever wherever possible. You're all gay bashers until it comes to one of your own. This issue is not going away any time soon.
Marc at 7:04PM on Oct 10th 2006
34. Once again the Republicans are trying to blame everything on the Democrats. Radio spinmasters,
(Rush et. al.) have been pushing this idea since the story broke. why can't the Republicans face the fact that Foley did wrong, and now the House leadership needs to tell what thy knew and when. It's time they faced the music!
Tom Wrigley at 7:08PM on Oct 10th 2006
35. Of course this is another one of the Democrats'dirty little tricks, as they play dirtier, as the days go by. Foley is gay, and everyone pretty much knew this already, but the deomcrats never do anything about their dirty predators, Aka; Kennedy, Clinton, Barney Frank, Gary Studds. It's okay to prey on innocent pages, or prey on interns, or rape women, as long as you are a democrat. Well, wake up America. If the Democrats win the House and Senate, look for higher taxes, the ecomomy getting worse, instead of flourishing like it is now, and threats from terrorists, that they think have as many rights as you & I, and giving away secrets to our enemies. Things are pretty good now, except for the war, but if you think the democrats will solve those problems, you need to get your brain checked!
Mary Jefferson Rabon at 7:10PM on Oct 10th 2006
36. You Neo-Cons are insane! For once, can someone in your power-hungry party take some responsibility and admit that Foley's actions are wrong? Don't blame the Democrats for exposing this "scandal". If you want to do that, lets talk about what "piglet" Lucianne Goldberg did to set up "piglet" Linda Tripp to entrap Monica. I think what Clinton did was disgusting but it was with an adult. If you Neo-Cons don't think what Foley did was so bad, why don't you allow teachers to exchange sexually explicit email to your children. Your Neo-Con double standard makes me want to vomit, and I will be so happy to see this administration answer questions under oath, once the Democrats regain the majority. Hope it was a good ride for you moral degenerates - we'll find out just who is lying when you have to be sworn in and answer questions under oath.
Jeff S. at 7:14PM on Oct 10th 2006
37. I have to hand it to the right wingers. They are absolutely shameless in finding a creative way to say "It's the Democrats' fault!" They continue to master the Big Lie and to dodge responsibility. Nothing new about it, of course. It even predates McCarthy and Nixon. It's why the rest of us need to do all we can to eradicate the Republican Party as a political institution.
Allen Bradford at 7:11PM on Oct 10th 2006
38. The desperation and panic from the right wing over the Foley issue would be totally hilarious if not for the serious matter of a Republican Congressman having preyed on our children while the GOP leadership looked the other way.
As we've seen during past scandals, the Republican motto is "If we go down, we'll attempt to take you with us". That's exactly what's happening again in yet another attempted whisper campaign. Republicans are desperately trying to create suspicion until the election. They're willing to misinform, spread rumors and lie to hold onto the power they've abused for way too long already. They take their dirty laundry, throw it over the fence and try to blame the neighbors. The problem with that is their name is sewn into all those dirty unmentionables ;0)
There's an investigation going on into this matterwith absolutely no evidence pointing to any Democrat -- a Republican preyed on minors using the Internet (check "Walsh Law"), some Republicans were informed of this yet did nothing, other Republicans finally came forward (according to the original source, ABC) and all of this results in Republicans pathetically attempting to pass the blame to the other. Shameful.
Fmrgopmmbr at 7:18PM on Oct 10th 2006
39. Foley resigned.But, the Dems are trying to kreep this story alive and not the real issues that will destroy them. It's dirty tricks from the left again and again. If the Dems would get in to a debate on the real issues they would be defeated badly. But, just like in the presidental election they (the Dems) have to make things up to try and keep the public off the real issues. And just like AOL they seem to be on the wrong side again and again.
Kelly Acridge at 7:19PM on Oct 10th 2006
40. WOW! Blame the democrats at all cost. The republican leadership covered the butt of a child predator. THAT is the story. Not who brought it out(a republican. The story is not about Foley being gay or Clinton having sex with a woman of legal age. Nice try though.
Janet Colosi at 7:20PM on Oct 10th 2006
41. We need to get the Democrates back in office they have no morals so we can use are cigar and blame other people for I didnot have sexual relation.
Bob Wood at 8:22PM on Oct 10th 2006
42. Its amazing how you partisan hacks love to criticize anything suspicious about yourselves. I beleive this is an obvious leak by democrats, theres no other explanation. It fits nicely into the liberal persona.
Adam at 7:31PM on Oct 10th 2006
43. The Republicans have long been the masters of b.s and smear campains. I find it funny that they always cry unfair when anything doesn't go the way they want.They sure didn't have a problem setting up Bill Clinton and spending millions of tax payers money for months of probes and investigations.The fact is , the Republicans have been lying to us for years and why anyone listens anymore is beyond me.I say clean house in every district and make sure the people we elect are reminded of just who the hell elected them and who they are there to serve!We the people!
bob p at 7:02AM on Oct 11th 2006
44. Lets get America back... Vote them all out!
Just an American at 7:34PM on Oct 10th 2006
45. Spin it all you want. The republicans knew years ago, No matter who broke the story, or whom you might believe broke it, the republicans are responsible for not taking care if this when they first learned of it.
cee at 7:39PM on Oct 10th 2006