An interesting article over at The American Spectator verifies what I've been hearing from other sources. Democrat operatives are confirming that the Foley story wasn't supposed to be released until about 10 days before the election - and it was supposed to be the culmination of a series of orchestrated October surprises, rather than the beginning.
What changed? Poll numbers. Republicans were coming back strongly -- Democrat hopes were evaporating. With the new age of media and the Internet, Democrats figure that a poll swing that results from a story like Foley would last about two weeks before voters start paying attention to real issues again - and that's nationally. In individual races, where often local issues are paramount in a non-presidential election year, the swing benefit from such a story might even be shorter (see NYT story later in this post):
"You pull out the bright shiny things that distract the average American voter away from the issues we all know they care about -- national security, anti-terrorism -- and focus on the ugly: Foley and Iraq."
...'Republicans had to have known we'd be looking to change the national debate,' says a House Democrat leadership aide. 'You had our leadership looking at cratering polling numbers. A majority within grasp wasn't drifting away, it was being yanked back by Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Foley had to be bumped up on the scandal schedule. That makes a lot of sense given where we were two weeks ago, and where we are now.' "
As much as Katie Couric et al try to keep the Foley fires burning, there is now enough evidence that this was a political stunt -- and that no one out there knows where this is heading. Leaders and operatives from both parties are going to be put under oath by the FBI and the Justice Department in the investigation of a cover-up.
Democrats beware -- there was just too much coordination beween liberal groups like CREW, a fake blog, American Family Voices, David Corn's McCarthyesque "Gay Staffers List", and Nancy Pelosi to be a coincidence. Now that evidence has surfaced that the communicant with Mark Foley of the IMs (not the e-mails, which not even Brian Ross was willing to write about in August) was a legal consenting adult, the story turns into a gay version of the Clinton-Lewinsky Scandal. The differences are homosexuality, a page instead of an intern, and there being no physical contact in the Foley story.
The latest twist, that congressional staffers like Kirk Fordham "warned" Hassert's office three years ago about Foley's penchant for young men, lacks any detail about what the warning was, and is contradicted by Fordham's own documented actions regarding the Foley Scandal.
If no evidence that any crime was being committed, what can be done about someone like Foley except what the National Journal is saying happened?:
Foley's friends ruefully speak of knowing that Foley was friendly with congressional pages. One recalls jokingly telling Foley to be careful not to confirm a stereotype about sexual predators. Foley laughed, a friend says.When the Foley story first hit, I was furious. Based on what I was reading and hearing, I thought that Mark Foley was at the very least a sexual predator and a pedophile. Now, even according to Andrew Sullivan, no evidence exists that he is either. Right now I'm glad he's gone (he seems like a time-bomb waiting to explode), and we may still find out that he has committed crimes against young children. But right now this whole thing is looking more and more like a political hit piece designed to surpress the conservative vote. And according to the New York Times, it's not looking as if it's going to work long-term:
...But then, in the fall of 2005, a page sponsored by Rep. Rodney Alexander of Louisiana, complained. After Foley had furtive discussions with House officials, his friends warned him to police himself. And one former Foley staffer recalls asking the lawmaker directly whether there was anything more serious floating around. Foley, according to the former aide, said no.
...Foley's former chief of staff, Kirk Fordham, last spring promised both Rep. John Shimkus, the chairman of the page board, and a top assistant to Hastert that he would make sure Foley behaved himself. At that time, Fordham was the chief aide to Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fordham's assurances, according to this account, apparently were enough to persuade Hastert's staff not to recommend further action
...Fordham told ABC News that in 2003 he warned Hastert's powerful chief of staff, Scott Palmer, that he was worried about Foley's penchant for doting on male pages. Palmer, according to Fordham, subsequently notified Hastert. Palmer responded that Fordham's version of events is untrue. And a House leadership aide wondered aloud why Fordham, who professed to be surprised by Foley's conduct on Monday, was saying two days later that he remembered having long-standing anxieties.
But in dozens of interviews here in southeastern Virginia, a conservative Christian stronghold that is a battleground in races for the House and Senate, many said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen. "This is Foley's lifestyle," said Ron Gwaltney, a home builder, as he waited with his family outside a Christian rock concert last Thursday in Norfolk. "He tried to keep it quiet from his family and his voters. He is responsible for what he did. He is paying a price for what he did. I am not sure how much farther it needs to go."So the ABC News polls out this morning reflect the American public being hit in the face with the Foley Scandal and its spin, and the trickle-down from that. But it reflects national opinion, not local races. The local polling will take a hit as well, but only for as long as local issues (or the War on Terror and Immigration) aren't the focus. The more the Democrats use Foley in their ads and the media obsesses over it, the more of a chance that the Democrats will experience a blow-back from the voters. It sometimes takes a while, but generally voters know when they're being played for fools - and don't appreciate it. This Foley business certainly doesn't help the Republicans, but it's not the fatal blow that is being portrayed in the media, either.
The Democratic Party is "the party that is tolerant of, maybe more so than Republicans, that lifestyle," Mr. Gwaltney said, referring to homosexuality.
Reader Comments ( Page 7 of 12)
91. This is obviously a total fabrication, that it was scheduled to come out later on. The Republicans have operatives, the democrats just aren't that organized.
peter at 9:50PM on Oct 10th 2006
92. by the way??? what ever happened to the contract with America?
peter at 9:52PM on Oct 10th 2006
93. As convenient for the Democrats as the Foley scandal may seem, I think it's convenient for the Republicans that gas prices skyrocketed right before the summer driving season and they were able to make a ton of oil profits, then lo and behold, right before the election, gas prices are the lowest they've been all year. Please tell me what catastrophe caused the oil to skyrocket and what miracle caused it to suddenly be so affordable? It reminds me of a news article a few weeks ago...If gas is high, Republican approval rating drops and if it's low, they're approval goes up. We all know our current administration is full of Oil Men and if they were truly on the side of the American people, ALL the American people, not just the wealthy, at least they should be able to keep gas prices low or somewhat steady. Considering were fighting an unpopular war in a VERY Oil rich nation, we should at least see a break at the pump....and not just a month before the elections. Foley is sick and so is anyone who tried to cover up his shenanigans for the sake of politics, but don't blame the Democrats for exploiting the circumstances Republicans created. The Republicans have been exploiting 9/11 to keep Americans afraid and paint the Democrats as weak, even though it happened on Bush's watch. I dont blame Republicans or the Bush administration for Clinton's affair with Lewinsky or for him lying under oath. I don't blame Democrats or the Clinton administration for the Foley scandal, the GOP cover-up, or for 9/11.......
LouRebel at 9:54PM on Oct 10th 2006
94. Johnny_X Monica was 22 yrs old & no longer an intern. Get your facts straight when you want to pull the "Clinton Did It" card.
Kath at 9:56PM on Oct 10th 2006
95. Who cares when it was released, the important thing to note is that the Republican leadership knew about this and covered it up because they cared more about how it would affect them politically than how it affected the pages.
Dave H at 9:58PM on Oct 10th 2006
96. All of this chatter about a homo and a page boy sounds so insignificant compared to the other problems we face. It all sounds pretty tame compared to a president that taught all our young kids about oral sex. I'm more concerned about N. Korea, Iran and perhaps our biggest enemy, the ACLU. Let's worry more about the democrats promising to remove the tax cuts and the possibility of a communist traitor like Kerry moving to the White House. As bad as some folks think the GOP is, their faults pale when placed next to what used to be the party of the working man. One's who's seen communism first hand.
Bill Hughes at 9:59PM on Oct 10th 2006
97. Wow all anonymous sources. Republicans are really desperate now. The issue is the horror of Iraq. Democrats don't need the foley issue, which by the way, is not homosexuality, its pedophilia. i'm sure there are more republicans pedophiles than democrats because republicans take pride in screwing the weak.
tony at 9:59PM on Oct 10th 2006
98. To the author of this crapola,
Looks like nobody's buying your bs although you sure can shovel it! I guess you figured throw as much against the wall and see what sticks. In this case it AIN'T NOTHIN'!!
Richard Merrill at 9:59PM on Oct 10th 2006
99. The only loser in this entire debate is the American People ..While the press looks for lost Im's and stick it in your face polls, North Korea plods ahead with tests of so called nukes ,Gas prices continue to fall and last but not least the Dow has record highs...So you continue to look for the trash and if the Dems get in all the gains we have made go to higher taxes and we turn chicken again by running out of Iraq with American tails tucked between our legs....then theie predictions or Iraq becoming Vietnam are self-fulfilled
Ann Jones at 6:34AM on Oct 11th 2006
100. Jeez Louise - first of all, the idea that the Democrats are "behind" all this is ludicrous. The fact is - what Mark Foley did was wrong and if he were a Democrat, the GOP would be out beating the family values drum until all our heads burst. No amount of blaming Democrats for the information being leaked makes any of his actions any less wrong. If he were your 16 year old's teacher, principle or guidance counselor - would we be splitting hairs about the "wrongness" of his actions??? And to equate this with the Lewinsky situation is ridiculous. These kids were 16 - she was 22. I don't know what about you folks - but at 16 I was living at home with my parents attending high school - I didn't even have a driver's license; at 22 I had graduated college, had a job and my own apartment. There's a world of difference between 16 and 22. I don't think Bill Clinton showed great judgement in the Lewinsky affair - but that's just what it was - an affair. Between adults. This is a man preying on adolescents. If he were a scout leader, he'd have been arrested.
alisa at 10:07PM on Oct 10th 2006
101. Someone mentioned the dirty tricks of Karl Rove in Ohio and Florida, and that doesn't even mention the scandalous last-minute phone calls that asked the question, "what would you think if Ann Richards had lesbians on her staff..." that Rove engineered in Texas that went a long way in sinking Richards' 1994 campaign for governor against George Bush.
What I'm saying is, this is the gamesmanship that wins or loses elections. I am not saying Democrats are necessarily guilty of holding on to this information about Foley, but even if they did, so what? And if so, what is worse, saving it for a few months to gain political advantage, or hiding it while minors are harrassed and abused to save your political hides? Just because you deserve something, as the minority party does this time around, doesn't mean the other guys are just going to let you have it. In the screwed-up world of American politics, where candidates positions on "issues" like gay marriage, flag burning and so on are more important than real issues like war, immigration, and social security, it seems only fair to employ this kind of gamesmanship to maximum advantage, especially when the other side has a very long history of using it themselves.
But I deeply and sincerely hope that, if Democrats do succeed in controlling either the House or Senate, they will do the right thing -- move with resolve to eliminate the corruptive influence peddling and the fleecing of the middle class and make this government truthful, accountable and fair. This, and only this, will bring all citizens together, agreeing to disagree on some issues for sure, but compromising and solving problems constructively. Maybe I'm dreaming, but I will write my reps and senators to let them know that's what I expect.
Mike Farrace at 7:24AM on Oct 11th 2006
102. This is a classic spin and if the voters don't see through it then it confirms my worst fears, The dumbing down of americans has been a success. take back our country and let all politicans know that they work for the people..........
Clean! House! ..........Start with Hastert, then John Shimkus, next Tom Reynolds, Oh and Rodney Alexander, Last but not least "castrate" Foley and send him in to play with the big boys in the pen.....L.O.L.
dave latto at 10:21PM on Oct 10th 2006
103. Why are the Republicans so anxious to blame Democrats if there is not a problem here with Republicans?
Wiley Evans at 1:49PM on Oct 11th 2006
104. I laugh at all of your comments because all of you are feeding of the hype from both the left & the right. This is just another case where no intelligent decision can be made as to what really happened because there are no verifiable facts yet to come to any kind of conclusion. Americans are to quick to believe & take as fact the spin being spewed by our politicians. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if it was a coverup by the Reps. & wouldn't surprise me a bit if it was a planned smear by the Dems. I'll just wait until a little verification can be done before coming to judgement. Although my personal opinion is regardless of Foley's guilt or innocence the Dems have no moral ground to criticize anybody. I think it was Nancy polozi who rode in the car behind the grand marshall of the San Francisco Gay Pride parade. The Grand Marshall a leader in the NAMBLA org. "NAMBLA stands for North American Man/Boy association which believes men should have the right to sex with young boys as young as 8 yrs old. So I ask you does the leader of the Dem party have a right to make any kind of judgment when it comes to moral standing? Not in my book! OK, go ahead and start slamming me and calling me names lefties!!! LOL...
Mike Coulter(not related to Ann but a big fan of hers! LOL!) at 10:30PM on Oct 10th 2006
105. You've got to be kidding. Let me paraphrase your gibberish so I understand this. The Democrats made Foley a pedophile so that he could leverage his position as a United States Congressman to get his "freak on" with underage boys. And Hastert and the GOP boys covering up Foley’s disgusting behavior? Democrats fault too? And what about the whole Tom DeLay thing? Let’s not forget Abramoff. Was that Clinton’s fault? Where does the abuse and arrogance stop? I imagine that it doesn’t. How about a little accountability from your handlers at the Republican Party.
I know what your ridiculous rhetoric is implying? That once the Democrats take the congress there might be a few hearings on the reasons we went to war with Iraq, and the White House’s relationship with Halliburton, and the signing statements, and the warrantless spying of American citizen’s, etc., yes this might mean that Das Fuhrer Bush’s rein. Oh yes, his abuses of power will make Nixon look like a little leaguer.
I hope you’re hooked on the same drugs as your impendent buddy Rush because the rule of the Republicans is just about over.
Dan Martin at 10:36PM on Oct 10th 2006