I've given up on the accuracy of polls after the kerfuffles of 2000 and 2004. I think the advent of caller ID, cell phones and the new media have rendered accurate polling obsolete.
That said, some polls seem to have been more accurate than others such as Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Zogby is wrong so often that his polling doesn't figure in anymore.
Based on the latest polling data and from what I've read of the elections, I see the five most competitve Senate races playing out this way (incumbent listed first):
Santorum is down in just about every poll. The RCP composite has him 13% down to Casey in a state where Democrats have a strong advantage in the two big cities. Santorum has been a lightning rod for liberals and it ust may have worked. I have Casey winning this by 4% unless Santorum can get the suburban Philly in Montgomery and Bucks Counties to turn out in large numbers.
Menendez' ethical issues would've sunk him in any other state, but this is New Jersey and ethics are not a priority. Kean Jr. has made the same mistake Forrester did against Toricelli by playing the "I'm not Menendez" card. Despite the so-so campaign Kean Jr. has ran, I have him winning by 1.5% with high turnout in South Jersey putting him over the top.
Allen has also run a horrible campaign but should eke it out. Webb has given it a pretty good run but has not ignited any passions. Most of the time, when that's the case, the incumbent wins by default and that's probably going to happen here. I have Allen winning by 1%.
Talent should win this convincingly. The whole Michael J. Fox affair has done more to hurt McCaskill than help because people generally don't like outsiders involving themselves in their affairs. I saw this play out in California with Proposition 187. I like Talent by 3%.
This seat, left vacant by outgoing Senate Majority Leader Robert Frist is the best race in the country and everyone is watching. Corker is a bright guy, as is Ford and either would make a good Senator. The problem I see is that Ford has hit Corker from the right and looks insincere appearing in ads from churches and his recent God comments. It won't sell well to the good folks of Tennessee. I also think the fallout from the "Playboy" ad is not helping Ford. When the Dems called the ad racist and it wasn't, the people in the state probably got mad. The south has been hearing the racist canard for so long from northern elites that they may just vote for Corker out of spite. Prediction: Corker by 1.5%.
The GOP will have a net loss of 3 seats and maintain the Senate.
House predictions to follow.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)
1. That sounds about right, but I'm going to be suprised if the Republicans win in NJ
NixGuy at 7:25AM on Oct 31st 2006
2. The race in NJ is a definite toss-up and the Democratic machine in North Jersey is second to none. The union support is very strong.
scott at 7:27AM on Oct 31st 2006
3. With the elections being stolen (thanks to those Republican-friendly Diebold machines) polling hardly matters, anymore.
Until Democrats are smart enough to figure that out, they deserve to lose.
Jasen T. Davis at 5:11PM on Nov 1st 2006
4. You are clearly a Republican mouthpiece, and deserve to go down in your predictions just as your picks such as Talent and Allen will in the election.
Michael Roddy at 8:51PM on Oct 31st 2006
5. You seem to have done your home work and I came up with almost the same thing except for NJ. Kean will lose by 1%. However republicans will pick up Maryland with a Steele victory. Steele by 2%
kevin at 12:48AM on Nov 2nd 2006
6. Gee Michael,
You're not clearly a democrate and bitter by what was written here?
I think that the writer has stated his position based on his own research.
Why don't you do the same instead of chastizing?
Ron
Ron at 10:46AM on Nov 1st 2006
7. I think we should just wait until next Tuesday and see what happens. I am a moderate independent who is completely turned off by the republican hiprocracy. I for one favor the Democrats in this election. It's time to hold this administration accountable for it's failed policy in Iraq! Over 100 troops killed and 700 wounded in October.
Joe at 12:40PM on Nov 1st 2006
8. Here's a prediction you didn't make: Jack Carter in a squeaker over John Ensign. Carter's underfunded campaign has big netroots support in Nevada, but is getting little attention from mostly conservative media in this state. But Carter has been ignoring regular media, other than a few ad buys, and taking it directly to the people in a gruelling personal whistle-stop campaign.
He's been running on Ensign's record. Check out Carter's blog to see how deadly effective that is. This is a guy who was the lone vote against an amendment to Medicare part D to help low-income senior citizens with cancer pay for their medication.
It's not republican vs. democrat, in this race, it's nice guy vs cripple-kicker. I think you will see a last minute surge of PAC and Dem money into the state, and it will push Carter over the top by one to one and a half percent.
At least, that's what the exit polls will say...
Bob King at 12:40PM on Nov 1st 2006
9. In a replay of 2000 & 2004, these races that are polling so closely will go GOP, with the possible exception of NJ. Why? Nothing to do with get-out-the-vote, everything to do with suppress and steal the vote. Watch Ohio, too, for last-minute come-from-behind "victories" for DeWine and Blackwell, the outgoing Sec. of State and vote stealer extrordinaire.
Debster at 12:41PM on Nov 1st 2006
10. This is the most corrupt or just plain evil administration of my time. They have the power and money along with the lack of morals to steal all of these elections as they have for the past several years. I cannot believe there are as many clueless people in the United States to let them win honestly. God help us all.
kay bewick at 5:53PM on Nov 3rd 2006
11. Way too much hype for the Democrats by the national media. Disproportionate representation of Democratic opinions.
Fred at 7:26PM on Nov 1st 2006
12. Like it's president I fervently wish, every single
republicans go to south with him. I do not understand what is made of their brain. Almost
3,000 death in Iraq, economy in shable, no jobs
and they are still voting for Mr. Bull.
Zakaria Mustafa at 6:08AM on Nov 2nd 2006
13. The independents are gonna nail the coffin shut on these Republicans. The house will change for sure I belive and the Senate will loose 3 seats but be close enough in votes for the moderates to run these neo-cons outta town. This Moderate Repuiblican is gonna be as happy as Olympia Snow!!!
Teddy at 5:59PM on Nov 5th 2006
14. Kay,
There are a lot of clueless people around. They elected Hillary Clinton a senator in New York, a woman with no crdentials for the job except her husbands name. Now that's clueless
Richard at 7:08AM on Nov 7th 2006
15. Richard (#14) I assume that you are not from New York! Hilary Clinton has been an effective senator for her state and will win in a landslide. It seems to be outsiders (especially southern) who have problems with her representation and not her own constituency. Why can't you just recognize that she is where she belongs and let it go? Get a life!
Cheryl at 4:58PM on Nov 7th 2006