If Rep. Chris Shays wasn't the most vulnerable Republican in Congress, he was certainly one of them. He represents a liberal district, had become closely linked to the Iraq War, and was running against a woman whom he had only narrowly beaten in 2004. He has now visited Iraq a total of fourteen times, often coming back extolling the progress of Iraq. Now, with Iraq's progress stagnating and frustrated Americans calling for change, he seemed like the perfect candidate for the Democrats to beat. But they didn't.

Granted, the race was extremely tight, and Shays edged out challenger Diane Farrell with only 51% of the vote to her 48%. But he didn't lose. Rep. Nancy Johnson, representing Connecticut's Fifth District, was running for her thirteen term. If any Republican was thought to be invincible, it was her. But she lost, receiving only 45% of the vote. Rep. Simmons, representing Connecticut's Second District, seems to have lost a bitterly contested race to Democratic challenger Joe Courtney. Though no winner has officially been announced, Courtney is ahead by 200 votes. Of the three Republican congressman in Connecticut, Shays was thought to be the most likely to lose. What happened?

First, his challenger was far from perfect. Farrell's main issue was the Iraq War, but her own stance has been controversial. At one point, several years ago, she had supported the war. Now, she was running as staunch anti-war candidate, a switch that reeked of hypocrisy to many voters. Also, Farrell has made statements like "we have aided and abetted Al Qaida and terrorists" that outraged liberals and conservatives alike.

Rep. Shays can be considered a moderate, but Farrell is most certainly a liberal. For voters, Shays was moderate enough, "un-Republican" enough, to be re-elected. He has carved a niche in Congress as a being an independent maverick in the mold of Sen. McCain (McCain even campaigned with Shays), and voters felt that Shays was far enough from the President to deserve re-election. Maybe what Shay's re-election can tell us is that voters weren't intent on electing Democrats to Congress time term. They were focused on voting out Republicans, and Shays has been liberal to the point were he can hardly be called a Republican anymore.