Obama Even With Hillary; Thompson Gains

Interesting polling numbers out today. Nix reported on the surge by non-candidate Fred Thompson who gained 5 percent in a week while John McCain fell back to fourth behind Mitt Romney. That is what you would call amnesty-bill-blow-back.

In the latest USA TODAY/Gallup poll, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are essentially tied:

The Illinois senator bests Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president Al Gore.

Clinton bests Obama by a single point, 37%-36%, if it doesn't include Gore.

Those are very interesting numbers. Note that it was not a large sampling and was was taken before the debate on Sunday night. The results are significant anyway.

Hillary Clinton has been running the race as if she's trying not to lose. Any coach would tell you that you play to win. To use a football analogy, Hillary is in a prevent defense, allowing the short plays up the middle. The problem is, the prevent is good at the end of the game with a lead, she's playing a prevent in the middle of the second quarter and Obama is eating up the field in five yard increments.

OK, enough of the gridiron analogies. What these polls are telling us is that the American people want change. They are sick of the Bushes and the Clintons and want some new blood in power. Barack Obama is clear and concise with his message and doesn't have the baggage of having voted for the Iraq war that Clinton and John Edwards do. He used that to precision by slamming Edwards with it the other night. He is looking like a formidable candidate as of now.

On the other side, Fred Thompson is running the perfect non-campaign. He has the field looking over their shoulders and, until recently, was quietly sneaking up on them. Rudy Giuliani must be getting nervous as Thompson has the conservative credentials he lacks and the cult of personality that would be his if Thompson wasn't around. A Thompson-Giuliani ticket would be unstoppable in my opinion.

Probably the most interesting thing in the GOP poll is the effect the immigration issue is having. John McCain and President Bush are getting hammered every day and it's showing up in the numbers. Mitt Romney hasn't come out against the bill as forcefully as Thompson and the results are clear.

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