Interesting polling numbers out today. Nix reported on the surge by non-candidate Fred Thompson who gained 5 percent in a week while John McCain fell back to fourth behind Mitt Romney. That is what you would call amnesty-bill-blow-back.
In the latest USA TODAY/Gallup poll, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are essentially tied:
The Illinois senator bests Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president Al Gore.
Clinton bests Obama by a single point, 37%-36%, if it doesn't include Gore.
Those are very interesting numbers. Note that it was not a large sampling and was was taken before the debate on Sunday night. The results are significant anyway.
Hillary Clinton has been running the race as if she's trying not to lose. Any coach would tell you that you play to win. To use a football analogy, Hillary is in a prevent defense, allowing the short plays up the middle. The problem is, the prevent is good at the end of the game with a lead, she's playing a prevent in the middle of the second quarter and Obama is eating up the field in five yard increments.
OK, enough of the gridiron analogies. What these polls are telling us is that the American people want change. They are sick of the Bushes and the Clintons and want some new blood in power. Barack Obama is clear and concise with his message and doesn't have the baggage of having voted for the Iraq war that Clinton and John Edwards do. He used that to precision by slamming Edwards with it the other night. He is looking like a formidable candidate as of now.
On the other side, Fred Thompson is running the perfect non-campaign. He has the field looking over their shoulders and, until recently, was quietly sneaking up on them. Rudy Giuliani must be getting nervous as Thompson has the conservative credentials he lacks and the cult of personality that would be his if Thompson wasn't around. A Thompson-Giuliani ticket would be unstoppable in my opinion.
Probably the most interesting thing in the GOP poll is the effect the immigration issue is having. John McCain and President Bush are getting hammered every day and it's showing up in the numbers. Mitt Romney hasn't come out against the bill as forcefully as Thompson and the results are clear.
Reader Comments ( Page 5 of 7)
61. Well I think that AL GORE is the stealth candidate that can win! He is a man of principle, science, reason and has a great temperament. He is an optimist and a problem-solver! Personally, I think he won and was denied the office. Since he is now outside the Washington establishment, he is even more irresistable! Move over Hillary! Obama would make a great VP on his ticket or Edwards! Gore has name recognition and doesn't have to raise millions $ to get our attention! He also speaks with candor and experience! I would certainly flip-flop for him if he were drafted as a candidate!
Steve Mathis
Los Angles, California
Steve Mathis at 10:41PM on Jun 5th 2007
62. Fred is nothing more than a con man,a neocon that is!
Tori at 10:50PM on Jun 5th 2007
63. #59 I am not a Republican, I am an Independent so calm down and take your pill . HILLARY ! wouldnt want you talking tough like that.
Tony Linder at 10:59PM on Jun 5th 2007
64. "A Thompson-Giuliani ticket would be unstoppable in my opinion." You gotta be kiddin'! They're two codgerly old men with insufficient experience to be President. Neither is particularly likable, and neither together or separately could they beat Hillary.
For all the analysis, and all the rhetoric, this is the bottom line: Hillary is going to win the Democratic nomination, PERIOD! And, barring some great calamity, she will go on to win the general election.
Here's why: there's no other viable Democratic candidate. Obama's cute, smart and trendy, but he's two-dimensional; he has no depth yet. Give him a full term or two in the Senate, and maybe a governorship, and he'll be on par with where Hillary is now. Edwards is making everyone sick with his constant self-flaggelation: "I was wrong,wrong, WRONG to vote for the war," and "I sin every day", blah, blah, blah...you've worn that horse out, John, and now it sounds phoney.
As for the general election, the Republicans are so despised and distrusted by the majority of Americans, they could run Jesus Christ and Mother Theresa on the ticket and still lose. The SOONEST another Republican president will be elected will be 2012. Hillary/Bill Parts III and IV sound heavenly to most Americans compared to the hell George, Dick, Karl, Condi and Donald have put us through for the past six and half years.
Hillary, however, must pick her running mate VERY wisely. I initially thought that Obama might be a good running mate, but he's too inexperienced and lacks depth -- Republicans would attack him relentlessly on that, and he can only drag her down. Hillary would do well to choose Wesley Clark, who's far more progressive on the issues than most of the Democratic field, including the war, gay rights, education and the environment. He would totally neutralize any "security" candidate that the Republicans could drag out on the stage, and he would be invaluable as part of her administration with the worldwide respect he has a one of the most successful Supreme NATO Commanders in history.
With Clark as a running mate, Hillary should also announce her proposed cabinet shortly before the election, apppointing Al Gore to head the EPA, Caroline Kennedy to head up Education or to be Secretary of State, Edwards for Attorney General, Bill Richards to head up a new task force or cabinet position on immigration issues, and of course her husband to be Ambassador extraordinaire to travel the world and undo the damage the Republicans have done.
Adam Light at 11:08PM on Jun 5th 2007
65. Hillary For President!
Tori at 11:41PM on Jun 5th 2007
66. We should not be prejudicial against Hillary Clinton.
We must judge her by her knowledge and strength.
Lets grow up politically and show the world that
America is ready for a woman President.
When world's largest democray like India can
produce woman leader like Indira Gandhi
and other nations like UK, Isreal, Italy,
Germany, Shri Lanka can have woman head of state
why cant America produce one.
Vijen Prasad at 12:24AM on Jun 6th 2007
67. come on not gonna start crying about OH BECAUSE WE ARE BLACK,,so now we gonna riot,,maybe american indians should {riot} also, OBAMA COME ON,did not think it would stoop to this so early
melty at 1:17AM on Jun 6th 2007
68. Scott, you must be in the witness protection program. What's the point of sharing a poll that was before the debate and it includes Al Gore. The man hasn't won his Nobel Prize yet. Hillary and Obama will be going down in the polls. Hillary is a puppet of Bill. Obama hasn't paid his dues yet. That one line zinger Obama got in on Edwards about the war was a freebie. Obama is untested, he inhaled, and he sounds a lot lighter than he actually is. The fact that he has not paid his dues is impossible to overcome. The fact that sleeping with a President is not a qualification hurts Hillary too. If Hillary runs on her Senate record, what the heck did she do? Why does she deserve a second chance? Kerry and Clinton blew 2004 not Edwards. Scott, you've done it again. You must be the boss of the blog. You shouldn't be on it!
Cecil Jones at 1:49AM on Jun 6th 2007
69. It is to early to tell anything. Has everyone forgot, we are a year ahead of schedule. If you really beleive that either poll will stay steady all the way to election day, then you should do some research on U.S. politics. Regardless of who wins the Democratic Convention, all three of the front runners are in a position to run Independent. I'm not anti-Hillary, but lets be real. If Obama or Edwards were to run Independent, they would give her a serious run for her money. Especially Obama, because of his record breaking crowd numbers. Lets not forget Republicans can not stand Hillary, and 47% of registered Democrats don't either. POLITICIANS MAY PICK THE NOMINEE, BUT THE PEOPLE ELECT THE PRESIDENT.
J at 3:43AM on Jun 6th 2007
70. T. Fraiser and all of you hatefuls, can you name an indivdualwho has an experience as apresident? I do not think so. It is only when an x-president runs for the second time that you talk about his/her experience in presidency,otherwise first time candidates are all applying for "on the job training"
and you should blog about their background instead of your hatred. "NO MATTER WHAT ALWAYS DEMOCRAT"
M. gurmu 2:54Am 06.06.07
M. Gurmu at 5:55AM on Jun 6th 2007
71. I am an American, and as an American it compels me to be quite indignant at hearing that some twelve million illegal immigrants live in our country today. It seems unfair that citizens of another country should have for free the things we have to pay for. (both for ourselves and THEM).
But even as I think these things, I recognize that as much as I am an American I am a Christian. And believe it or not religion can and should be a huge factor in political issues. (How can you debate abortion rights without brushing on concepts of religion or of the human soul? The nature of life itself is pivotal) I cannot help recall the story of the good Samaritan, who helps someone of another country, not based upon race or background, but simply because this person needed help. Hearing that story as a child it just seems so just, so clear that helping people is the right thing to do.
Behind all the laws and processes of immigration are real people, sometimes people that need help. I'm not saying that I condone illegal immigration, but if there is someone in front of you who needs help, do you really want to be the person who turns your head and walks by simply because they were born south of an invisible line? (And what makes us so special other than that we happened to be born north of this same line?)
They broke the rules, and no thats not fair, but given the choice, why would you vote against helping another human being?
Khelle at 5:59AM on Jun 6th 2007
72. I am an American, and as an American it compels me to be quite indignant at hearing that some twelve million illegal immigrants live in our country today. It seems unfair that citizens of another country should have for free the things we have to pay for. (both for ourselves and THEM).
But even as I think these things, I recognize that as much as I am an American I am a Christian. And believe it or not religion can and should be a huge factor in political issues. (How can you debate abortion rights without brushing on concepts of religion or of the human soul? The nature of life itself is pivotal) I cannot help recall the story of the good Samaritan, who helps someone of another country, not based upon race or background, but simply because this person needed help. Hearing that story as a child it just seems so just, so clear that helping people is the right thing to do.
Behind all the laws and processes of immigration are real people, sometimes people that need help. I'm not saying that I condone illegal immigration, but if there is someone in front of you who needs help, do you really want to be the person who turns your head and walks by simply because they were born south of an invisible line? (And what makes us so special other than that we happened to be born north of this same line?)
They broke the rules, and no thats not fair, but given the choice, why would you vote against helping another human being?
(To put my thoughts on this matter in perspective I'm generally very left-winged and seldom find redeeming aspects in the things our president says or does...)
Khelle at 5:58AM on Jun 6th 2007
73. It made me feel bad that Barack Hussean Obama had to eject RACE INTO HIS SPEACH Why not tell everyone that the sky is falling or to that effect instead of reminding people that we have crazy people in our country that will try to take what they want CASE IN POINT L.A.CAL. RIoTS
Tommie Cannon at 5:56PM on Jun 19th 2007
74. Answer to brtan7 Did Barack Hussean Obama not inject into his speach yesterday the L.A. race wars that crippled that city using race as fear?
Tommie Cannon at 8:13PM on Jun 7th 2007
75. I THINK ITS TIME WE GET A WOMAN INTO THE WHITE HOUSE.SHE HAS DONE GREAT THINGS FOR THE STATE OF NY AND THE PEOPLE THERE.SHES A STRONG WOMAN WITH GOOD VALUES AND KNOWS WHAT THE AMERICAN WANT.I FEEL STRONGLY THAT SHE WOULD MAKE A GREAT PRESIDENT AND HER PERSONAL LIFE SHOULDNT BE ON DISPLAY THATS JUST DISTASTEFUL....AFTER EVERYTHING THATS HAPPENED WITH 911 IM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH FOREIGNER IN WHITE HOUSE...OBAMA SHOULDNT EVEN BE ABLE TO RUN.
kathy panzer at 8:42AM on Jun 6th 2007