Rasmussen's latest is out today and shows that Fred Thompson is the new frontrunner at 28% to Rudy Giuliani's 27% with Mitt Romney and John McCain crashing back down to 10%. It is the first time that Giuliani has relinquished the lead since January. Just think what will happen when Fred actually announces.
Yesterday, Gallup and the big board at pollster.com showed the same trends, Giuliani and McCain sinking, Fred rising, and the other contenders becoming irrelevant. While things are relatively static on the Democratic side, Fred's impending entry is generating a lot of excitement among the press corp about the GOP primary race.
My prediction is that this will rapidly become a two-person race centered around two issues, electability and ideology. Giuliani is electable, but will he be conservative enough? Bush's current warpath for immigration reform comes at an unlucky time for Giuliani. It's reminding conservative voters of what happens when they vote for a non-conservative for the highest office. All things considered, they'd rather have a candidate who is a conservative at heart rather than someone they made a deal with.
With Fred Thompson it's the opposite problem. Most Republicans believe that he is a conservative at heart, based on past voting history and ACU Rating. But his current meteoric rise in the polls is only partially based on that. The other large part is the perception that he is a great communicator who would be an excellent foil against Hillary Clinton or whoever it is that the Democrats nominate. The perception is also that he will be able to reach out to swing voters as well and pull them back from the Democrats. I happen to believe this myself, but whether you believe it or not, understand that this perception among Republicans is what is moving Fred Thompson to the top.
McCain is out. Has been for awhile. It just happened to be immigration that was the final straw. Romney still has a chance but he's currently functioning as the first alternate in a two person race. If either Giuliani or Thompson stumble or fall short, Romney will be there waiting. Short of that, he remains on the sidelines.
In 1999, George W. Bush took the lead in money, polling and never relinquished it. This cycle will be much more interesting and overall good for Republicans.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)
1. we need a president who leads our country back together, someone who can go (over the heads of the liberal media hacks) and speak directly to the masses with credibility, common sense, and with words the news hacks dont have to translate for us. someone who the media cant demonize and have it stick. WE NEED FRED THOMPSON
COMAR at 3:45PM on Jun 19th 2007
2. Giuliani is credible looking at what he has done for N.Y. however i do feel that he is a liberal wearing an elephant costume. The more i read about Thompson the more i am a fan. I will not speak on the Left due to the GOLDEN RULE. However this video sheds light on why our country is the way it is nowadays.
http://www.2008presidentialpoll.com/video/democrats-vs-republicans/
Israel Swasnon at 3:57PM on Jun 19th 2007
3. I read that Fred Thompson says threat of force necessary to contain rogue regimes like Iran. I totally agree, and Mr. Thompson will have my support if he decides to run for president, which I hope he does. He is very likeable. McCain admits himself he is cantankerous and would hurt him in being nominated. Everybody seems to like Mr. Thompson, like Ike.
Phyllis Kunz
Phyllis Kunz at 8:15PM on Jun 19th 2007
4. We meed someone who is not a pure politician and a true conservative and Fred has my vote.
Lynda Griffith at 8:49PM on Jun 19th 2007
5. Fred Thompson has my vote, as he is the most relevant, intelligent, knowledgeable candidate. Most of my friends agree. Please don't drop out!!
Lynda Griffith at 8:51PM on Jun 19th 2007
6. Geez, I am kind of taken aback at how rough Fred Thompson looks, death is not so far from this man and it looks as if the cancer is winning...
j at 9:07PM on Jun 19th 2007
7. Looks like Fred is in, Mayor Bloomberg maybe also. Newt is considering a run. And Gore hasn't quite ruled it out. Along with the 20 or so who have participated in the debates, how in heck do we pick one that can go all the way?
Or will the media pick one for us?
Steve Bonomo at 9:45PM on Jun 19th 2007
8. Our country needs a president who will bring our government back in line with the constitution!
RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT!!! Please watch Congressman Paul's beautiful speech on patriotism at:
http://www.house.gov/paul/index.shtml
Carrie at 10:48PM on Jun 19th 2007
9. Yeah, Fred Thompson is my man. He had virtually no accomplishments when he was in the Senate. He was considered to be just plain lazy. So, he quit to become an actor. He loves that kind of work because he acts for ten minutes then goes into a trailer to relax. He plays a President so well, all the conservatives are besides themselves. So far, all he's done is spout the conservative rhethoric and nothing else and he is number one in the polls. How hard up can you guys get? Does anyone remember this is a race for President and not American Idol. This is a sad day for conservatives. We will lose Bush and get Clay Aiken. This is a guy who says he has no burning desire to be President. Yeah, that sounds just about right. No desire, no accomplishments, and can act like he's Presidental. Sad, very sad!
SM
Stephen Metz at 6:40AM on Jun 20th 2007
10. Like many Republicans, I do like Fred Thompson. But I think Rudy has two important advantages over him:
-the fact that he has been tested: he actually governed a very difficult New York City and greatly improved it,while Fred had done little or nothing in public life;
-his stance as a conservative on public issues and as a liberal on social issues will win him the votes of the Reagan Democrats. Fred's straight conservatism will be well liked by most republicans, but he will lose the the general election---the last one, on a straight conservative platform, was a sound defeat for the GOP.
Dominick at 7:55AM on Jun 20th 2007
11. Thompson / Huckabee, or, Thompson / Paul for '08! Elect nonHoplophobics who know RIGHTS don't require license, registration, permit, certificate, permission, tax, fine, or etc. to be exercised. RIGHTS are RIGHTS - not privileges.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoplophobia
and be sure to also read the Shrink's link.
Lon Horiuchi at 3:15PM on Jun 20th 2007
12. It is so hilarious to see Republicans flocking to Thompson, someone whom they know NOTHING about -- in terms of his ability to DO something -- only because he mouths all of the right-wing conserative commandments. Well folks, Bush mouthed all of those commandments, too -- he just couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag and so we had Katrina, a poorly planned war, appointments of good old buddies who can't do their jobs, and the country is falling apart. Bush was as much an actor as Thompson -- he learned his lines fed to him by Cheney and Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld, and he said them, but then when decisions had to be made and action taken, he erred every single time.
Should that have been expected? Well yes. He'd never had a business success -- took money from his dad's friends for an oil scheme that failed, "ran" a baseball team where he did nothing, etc. He succeeded in Texas -- much smaller playing field, smaller issues -- by appointing a bunch of good old buddies and not having many critical issues to deal with.
So NOW the Republicans want to nominate another guy who says the right things -- but has no record of DOING anythign. Voting on issues is one thing; actually managing a government is another. Selecting good Cabinet officers, making sure they select good staff, firing those who do wrong, leading in times of crisis -- WHO WILL WRITE THE SCRIPT FOR FRED THOMPSON TO FOLLOW?
It's the Republicans biggest Achilles heel right now -- the are so angry and obsessed with all of their right-wing hatred of everyone who isn't rich, white, "just like me" that they'll prefer a candidate who talks and thinks like them, than a candidate who has actually accomplished something.
And as for Guilani being credible -- the reason he was out on the streets leading things on Sept. 11 was because there was no Emergency Command Center -- because he insisted it be located in World Trade Center, even though all of his safety officials disagreed violently -- so it got blown up. And the firemen and police didn't have decent radios. Oh sure, he got the glory because he said the right thing and gave people calm and hope -- but he was in command for all of the decisiosn that led up to the city being woefully unprepared. (And of course as a Mr. Conservative, he dumped two wives, attended art exhibits that he attacked as "obscene" with his mistress at his side, while he was still married. But of course Republicans can overlook that because they are most worried about their power and incomes, and moral issues take a way back seat).
KL at 3:26PM on Jun 20th 2007
13. When I first saw Senator Fred Thompson on the McNeil/Lehrer Newshour I said "This guy is going to be president some day"
I disagree with most of his politics, but If I had to bet I would bet that he will be the republican candidate. And if the dems choose a looser like Billary or B.H.O. Thompson will be the next President
C Walton at 5:18PM on Jun 20th 2007
14. Thompson "cannonballs" into the race and like every cannonball in an electoral pool he will FLOP! Recall that he was Republican Watergate counsel who did everything but stand on his head to defend disgraced Richard Nixon but gave up when the incriminating tapes were revealed. Thompson is a conservative reactionary who will take us back to the Bush 'glory' years.
RR Klein at 6:06PM on Jun 20th 2007
15. GIULIANI WILL SCREW US ALL FOR HIS OWN SELFISH GAIN. HE RALLIED AGAINST THE FDNY & NYPD GETTING RAISES, THEN SHOWED OFF HOW HE BALANCED THE NYC BUDGET. THEN HE SPOKE ABOUT WHAT HE COULD DO AS PRESIDENT. HE WILL SCREW US ALL.
FDNY at 9:57PM on Jun 20th 2007