Rasmussen's latest is out today and shows that Fred Thompson is the new frontrunner at 28% to Rudy Giuliani's 27% with Mitt Romney and John McCain crashing back down to 10%. It is the first time that Giuliani has relinquished the lead since January. Just think what will happen when Fred actually announces.
Yesterday, Gallup and the big board at pollster.com showed the same trends, Giuliani and McCain sinking, Fred rising, and the other contenders becoming irrelevant. While things are relatively static on the Democratic side, Fred's impending entry is generating a lot of excitement among the press corp about the GOP primary race.
My prediction is that this will rapidly become a two-person race centered around two issues, electability and ideology. Giuliani is electable, but will he be conservative enough? Bush's current warpath for immigration reform comes at an unlucky time for Giuliani. It's reminding conservative voters of what happens when they vote for a non-conservative for the highest office. All things considered, they'd rather have a candidate who is a conservative at heart rather than someone they made a deal with.
With Fred Thompson it's the opposite problem. Most Republicans believe that he is a conservative at heart, based on past voting history and ACU Rating. But his current meteoric rise in the polls is only partially based on that. The other large part is the perception that he is a great communicator who would be an excellent foil against Hillary Clinton or whoever it is that the Democrats nominate. The perception is also that he will be able to reach out to swing voters as well and pull them back from the Democrats. I happen to believe this myself, but whether you believe it or not, understand that this perception among Republicans is what is moving Fred Thompson to the top.
McCain is out. Has been for awhile. It just happened to be immigration that was the final straw. Romney still has a chance but he's currently functioning as the first alternate in a two person race. If either Giuliani or Thompson stumble or fall short, Romney will be there waiting. Short of that, he remains on the sidelines.
In 1999, George W. Bush took the lead in money, polling and never relinquished it. This cycle will be much more interesting and overall good for Republicans.
Reader Comments ( Page 2 of 2)
16. GIULIANI WILL SCREW US ALL FOR HIS OWN SELFISH GAIN. HE RALLIED AGAINST THE FDNY & NYPD GETTING RAISES, THEN SHOWED OFF HOW HE BALANCED THE NYC BUDGET. THEN HE SPOKE ABOUT WHAT HE COULD DO AS PRESIDENT. HE WILL SCREW US ALL.
FDNY at 9:57PM on Jun 20th 2007
17. I live in Tennessee, and I was very pleased with his efforts for my state in the senate. He actually listened to his constituents. When the liberals say he did nothing, I assume they mean he did not panic about global warming, work to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants, or slobber in fear all over himself when foreign tyrants rattled their sabres!
For those who would imply the electorate knows nothing of Fred, I can only speak for myself. I worked in the same Nashville building with the man and met him several times. I found him to be friendly, sincere, brilliant and imposing. He is the kind of guy you want as a friend, not an enemy. He is the kind of guy I want as president.
Steve at 3:00AM on Jun 21st 2007
18. Knock!knock! Who's there? Fred! Fred who? Fred the outlaw and order,..Sorry.
Pen at 4:17AM on Jun 21st 2007
19. FRED HAS THE LIBS RUNNING SCARED. GO FRED
comar at 12:38PM on Jun 21st 2007
20. Oh yeah, we should vote for Fred because he has been on tv and has a young whore for a wife. I'm sure he can fix all our problems.
abc at 1:32PM on Jun 21st 2007
21. No meaningful experience, lack of ideas, shows how desperate the GOP is. The GOP would applaud a Bozo the chimpanzee as a candidate now. Oh wait, he's currently in office!
NYFD at 2:07PM on Jun 21st 2007
22. I know Freddie will win and I hope Hussein Obama wins too. If Hussein beats Dirty Legs then Freddie will beat him for sure because before the election he may be in jail. His Chicago mafia pals have been arrested and he has had to give their money back. If they start squeling on him before the election it's all over for him....here's the story on him:
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01062007/323/obama-gives-questionable-donation.html
Dirty Legs may be in jail, there is a video tape on her commiting a felony that the couts are looking at about her lying to them about knowing about a crooked fundraiser in 2000. Good luck Demo's..your going to need it!!
Poncho at 6:05PM on Jun 21st 2007
23. Here's the URL where Dirty Legs commits a felony with a crooked promoter doing a fundraiser for her in California in 2000.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55389
Good Luck Dirty Legs!!
Poncho at 6:20PM on Jun 21st 2007
24. Thompson is one of my favorite actors.We already have bush acting as a president,Thompson needs to stay with TV and leave politics alone,we dont need another actor as president
Rick Haste at 8:31PM on Jun 21st 2007