Analyzing Obama's Money

Fellow AOL Bloggers David and Matt have adequately covered today's news that Obama has outraised Hillary Clinton by a significant margin, so I don't want to rehash that. On the other hand this news is stunning, surprising, and will be the talk of the political class for the next week.

Simply put, no one expected it, and today the blogs are still grappling with putting together what it means for the race for the Democratic presidential elite. A lot of analysis is going to ride on where Obama's money is going to come from. If Obama has been poaching the Clinton mailing list of big money contributors, the analysis will swing toward the idea of Obama as the nucleus of a coalescing "stop Hillary" movement among the Democratic party elite.

However, if Obama's money is coming by small amounts from a large base of contributors (as I suspect will be shown shortly), then we have a whole other thing going on. Just as the immigration bill split the Republican party elite from the rank-and-file, the Obama money may highlight a split in the Democratic party between the Hillary establishment, and a Democratic rank-and-file over ideology and electability.
You don't have to look hard to find a lot of Democratic party bitterness and anger over her attempt to triangulate the Iraq war and her angling to be the "Security Democrat". At one time it seemed to be the smart political move, but in 2007, with Bush smarting over Iraq, the Democrats want better than triangulation.

Then there's electability and the concern over the fact that HIllary has the highest negatives of anyone in the race. Democrats do not want to make the mistake of blowing the 2008 election by nominating a candidate with fatal weaknesses (like Kerry in 2004).

But either way, the fact of the matter is that Hillary is at least ten points ahead in the polling and has remained in the lead for a long, long time. In light of the above, I don't think that this is so much a reflection of her strength as it is the weakness of her opponents.

But now that Obama has raised gobs of cash, this may be the critical mass he needs to capitalize on the ambivalence most Democrats feel about HIllary. it is quite apparent that seriously motivated financial backers have moved away from Hillary, but will the Democratic rank-and-file follow them on this clear signal? We'll know soon.

Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)

Coming Soon

Most Recent Comments

Presidential Race News

    Politics Video

    HST protest

    HST protestNative HST protest snarls Toronto traffic

    Smitherman to run for Toronto mayor

    Smitherman to run for Toronto mayorSmitherman to run for Toronto mayor

    Rebagliati will run

    Rebagliati will runSnowboarder Rebagliati slides into politics

    Snowboarder slides into politics

    Snowboarder slides into politicsSnowboarder Rebagliati slides into politics

    Miller won't seek 3rd term as Toronto mayor

    Miller won't seek 3rd term as Toronto mayorMiller won't seek 3rd term as Toronto mayor







    News Search
    AOL News

    Elections Blog

    Read the latest election news stories around the U.S. on AOL News. From congressional and gubernatorial elections to the latest local election results, we deliver the information you need.

    © 2009 AOL LLC. All Rights Reserved.
    AOL@News © 2009 AOL LLC. All Rights Reserved.
    BACK TO TOP
    Blogsmith