Fellow AOL Bloggers David and Matt have adequately covered today's news that Obama has outraised Hillary Clinton by a significant margin, so I don't want to rehash that. On the other hand this news is stunning, surprising, and will be the talk of the political class for the next week.
Simply put, no one expected it, and today the blogs are still grappling with putting together what it means for the race for the Democratic presidential elite. A lot of analysis is going to ride on where Obama's money is going to come from. If Obama has been poaching the Clinton mailing list of big money contributors, the analysis will swing toward the idea of Obama as the nucleus of a coalescing "stop Hillary" movement among the Democratic party elite.
However, if Obama's money is coming by small amounts from a large base of contributors (as I suspect will be shown shortly), then we have a whole other thing going on. Just as the immigration bill split the Republican party elite from the rank-and-file, the Obama money may highlight a split in the Democratic party between the Hillary establishment, and a Democratic rank-and-file over ideology and electability.
You don't have to look hard to find a lot of Democratic party bitterness and anger over her attempt to triangulate the Iraq war and her angling to be the "Security Democrat". At one time it seemed to be the smart political move, but in 2007, with Bush smarting over Iraq, the Democrats want better than triangulation.
Then there's electability and the concern over the fact that HIllary has the highest negatives of anyone in the race. Democrats do not want to make the mistake of blowing the 2008 election by nominating a candidate with fatal weaknesses (like Kerry in 2004).
But either way, the fact of the matter is that Hillary is at least ten points ahead in the polling and has remained in the lead for a long, long time. In light of the above, I don't think that this is so much a reflection of her strength as it is the weakness of her opponents.
But now that Obama has raised gobs of cash, this may be the critical mass he needs to capitalize on the ambivalence most Democrats feel about HIllary. it is quite apparent that seriously motivated financial backers have moved away from Hillary, but will the Democratic rank-and-file follow them on this clear signal? We'll know soon.
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)
1. The question not so much will the "rank and file" follow as: will the young people who support Senator Obama show up, when it counts the most, to vote. If they show up, Obama will be our next president.
Harold Hensel at 11:32PM on Jul 1st 2007
2. Actually, it may be that Clinton has come to a more realistic position on the war than Obama. Can we really just pull the plug? That was her former stance and seems to be the one he still proposes. She has since admitted the need for longer term involvement.
We have an obligation to the people of Iraq to resolve the situation (civil chaos) we brought about, if we can. Saddam was bad news, but the aftermath of his overthrow isn't pretty either. It will take much more than U.S. troops to calm things down, but there will be a military component to the long term solution.
The dems can still blame it on Bush/Cheney, but they will need to do more than throw in the towel.
Steve Bonomo at 11:36PM on Jul 1st 2007
3. Counting this quarter's surge of donors, the first-term senator from Illinois has received donations from more than 258,000 donors through the first half of the year, an extraordinary figure at this stage of the campaign. Obama raised $25.7 million in the first three months of the year.
According to his campaign manager "Together, we have built the largest grass-roots campaign in history for this stage of a presidential race," Obama said in a statement Sunday. "That's the kind of movement that can change the special interest-driven politics in Washington and transform our country. And it's just the beginning."
What is even more significant is the number of donors - over 358,000 compared to Hillary who has only about 60,000. Even the 60,000 donors that Hillary has over half of them are coming from President Clinton. To put this in perspective, I think Hillary is not doing so well as the made up national polls suggest.
The way to measure how well a candidate is doing is to look at the number of donors. You can not lie with these numbers but you can make national poll numers and talk about them.
Amos Ajo at 11:44PM on Jul 1st 2007
4. Hillary takes the realist approach and that why i want her to be president. She knows a complete withdrawl would mean more al-queda in Iraq so she wants a small special operative force there ONLY to fight al-queda. That is the right thing to do as there is no sense staying there in the middle of a civil war and try to stop it. Also it wouldn't be smart to pull right out with al-queda there. I can see a Clinton/Obama ticket in 08, and regardless of her negatives, look at the latest poll, over 50% of americans want a democrat president, while only under 30% want a republican. All she needs is to win the same states kerry won in 2004 and win wither Ohio, Florida, or win a combination of smaller states. this looks very likely. Hillary for President and i cannot wait!!!
Patrick at 11:47PM on Jul 1st 2007
5. I think we are ready for a female president and I believe Clinton is the best person for this position she knows whats going on and, whats better she has for a husband one of the best ex-president!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can't wait for a female president and specially if it is Hillary Clinton!!!!!!!!!!
Maria at 12:27AM on Jul 2nd 2007
6. Its absolutely amazing the kind of money that Obama has been able to raise this qurter, but even more stunning is the enormous support base that he has been able to create over the last six months. The so called "National opinion polls", may be indicating that Hillary is ahead of Obama in the race, but real figures dont cheat. Obama is definetly the candidate of the people, his bipartisan approach transcend the entire politcal devide and he appears to best articulate the wishes and aspirations of all American people regardless of their race, political, social or religious leanings. he comes out as the binding glue that the American people have been yerning for, for a very long time. I believe Obama will be the next President of USA since the will of American people must prevail.
Anthony Mwangi at 1:22AM on Jul 2nd 2007
7. Irrespective of the amount of money Obama has raised I still believe Hilary is a woman with tremendous insight. The U.S. is definitely ready for a woman president. Obama is articulate but lacks substance. Clinton/Obama now that's a ticket we can hope for.
Rebecca at 4:07AM on Jul 2nd 2007
8. Obama is intelligent and insightfull. This message is for that small percentage of ignorant Americans that constantly use articulate to describe him. I never read that statement written about Hilary C. Maybe She lacks substance like those who use the word articulate.
sebastian240 at 6:05AM on Jul 2nd 2007
9. All I can say is that I think it is exiting. I rather see Obama as the democratic nominee then Clinton.
Sandra at 9:22AM on Jul 2nd 2007
10. What about Barak Obama
(1) Between 1983 and 1985 Barak Obama spent a year working for Business International Corporation. You do not have to believe me it is in his biography on his web site and in his bio in Wikipedia.
Business International Corp. is a law firm that specializes in helping companies moving their manufacturing and product development overseas. Check out Business International Corp’s web site or their listing in Wikipedia. Someone whose only job in the private sector was shipping jobs overseas is not someone that should be in charge of the USA economy.
(2) The Presidency of the United States is an executive position. Barak Obama has never held an executive position of any type. No Governor, no Mayor, no CEO, not even the manager of a department store, or caption of a Swift boat. He did teach in a law school for 4 years.
(3) Barak Obama has only two years of experience in the federal government. Would anyone allow someone with only two years of experience in the aviation industry run an airline, or two years in retail run a department store, or two years of experience in a sport run a national franchise?
(4) The Presidency is an executive position that requires specific plans for solving problems. Check out Barak Obama’s web site where he states his positions in the broadest and vaguest possible terms; it contains no specific plans for anything.
(5) The best job Barak Obama has ever had is US Senate for two years for $157,000 per year. Yet he just purchased a house for $1,600,000. If he is not on the take his wife must have a valorously well paying job.
(6) Until a few days ago Barak Obama’s web site said he was educated in a Moslem school for at least 2 years while he lived in Indonesia from age 6 to age 12. His posting in Wikipedia still says that. Yet his supporters are claiming it is a smear even though it is the truth.
(7) Besides writing two auto-biographies and no legislation purposed, he has done not a thing.
(8) White canidate would be distroyed in one day if the church they went to had a doctrine aimed at ones race like Obama's church. Check out his churches web site.(i http://www.tucc.org/about.htm)
(9) In his 2006 Income Tax filing Obama donated $ 15,107 to the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation and $ 5,000 to Muntu Dance Theater. How long would a White presidential candidate last if it was found that he donated $ 20,000 to Whites only organizations.
saltzman21 at 10:42AM on Jul 2nd 2007
11. As far as the war is concerned, Hillary and Barack are pretty much on the same page at this point. Obama is not advocating a sudden pullout the way Richardson is. He states "we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were rash going in." He also says, "there are no good solutions at this point." He does advocate keeping troops in Iraq after the major pullout -- perhaps in Kurdistan. He has not been overly specific except to say that he favors caution in removing troops. Obviously, he does not want to cause a bloodbath or exacerbate the current situation anymore than he has to. So the commenter who stated that Clinton would do better than Obama on this issue is just plain misinformed. With respect to her ability to win where Kerry didn't, Obama has much better chance than she does, due to the fact that he is actually genuine and does not sport the unfavorables that Hillary does. Check your facts before you publish...
mcgee561 at 1:38PM on Jul 2nd 2007
12. Hillary Clinton after further reflection, has decided that keeping a large contingent of American troops in Iraq is counterproductive and has said if she becomes president she will end the Iraq War. I agree with her. She has been listening to the American people and their desire to put an end to that obscene war whose foundation was based on lies to the American people. The American people do not take kindly to persons who lie to them and that is why congressional and senatorial Republicans were swept out of control in the mid term elections. The so called Iraqi government must take control of its own security and stop leaning on American armed forces to do what they themselves have to do. When American forces are no longer in Iraq the government of Iraq will have to rise up and do what it must do or it will go out of existence.
Irving Smolens at 9:51AM on Jul 2nd 2007
13. Immigration is still gaining popularity and informative with more and more Americans through "water cooler" talk.
Clinton hasn't faced NAFTA, the lack of current honest leadership on immigration, and how Bill might have been able to prevent 9/11 if he had better funded and/or enforced immigration laws.
Obama cannot sustain himself as a viable candidate without actually tackling the problem of immigration; which will play the national security aspect again near equal to the Iraq war issue. I see no other issue being able to trump Iraq. Also there is a racism issue in the LAtino community with Obama and with this failed immigration will grow.
Immigration impacts; healthcare, education, national security, taxes, wages, etc, etc.
Jason at 10:25AM on Jul 2nd 2007
14. I am thrilled with Obama's fund raising success because I believe it demonstrated the viability of his campaign. The country needs to present a new face to the world, one that is unlike any we have presented before. Barack has the ability to capture the sense of both sides of an issue. and help people understand the reason/s behind the position he takes in the best interest of the whole.
Re executive experience, what is required is an understanding of where one wants to go, articulating that vision, and retaining the best minds and ooperations talents to get the job done. Obama clearly has the intelligence and competence to do this. I believe that Senator Clinton is able and competent to do the job. She just doesn't inspire the excitement and faith that that the American people need right now to be believable and credible on the world stage or get behind and do the hard work to move issues through the congress. The people need to feel and believe. Obama makes them do this.
MDrish at 12:00PM on Jul 2nd 2007
15. To Jason: Barack Obama is racist to Hispanic/Latino American citizens. I have been calling Barack Obama a racist and invite him to sue if I’m acting in bad faith. I say there is a reason a former civil rights attorney does not run for president with civil rights as a main issue and if you are a Hispanic American from the state of Illinois this concerns you. It can be verified having already been placed on repeated formal notice Barack Obama has taken no action to stop or even call for any investigation into IDHR & EEOC’s discriminatory practices that mistreat, harm , and prevent Illinois Hispanic American complainants from fairly & fully exercising their legal right to assert the exact same claim of discrimination based on RACE that other nonHispanics are allowed to by IDHR & EEOC. There can be no dispute that since 2004 I was and still now am not being allowed to assert & memorialize a claim of discrimination based on RACE on formal official “IDHR & EEOC” charges of discrimination with IDHR & EEOC focusing instead on manipulating the charging process by IDHR & EEOC repeatedly pressuring me to sign (upon threat of dismissing my charges) only IDHR & EEOC prepared “IDHR & EEOC” charges of discrimination in which IDHR & EEOC never memorialized my clear unambiguous claim of discrimination based on RACE that I have always maintained against Hormel Foods Corporation & UFCW since 2004. Even to date IDHR & EEOC have not provided me any state law or state rule and/or federal law or federal rule that excludes and/or prohibits any Illinois Hispanic American citizen from asserting and memorializing a claim of discrimination based on RACE on formal official “IDHR & EEOC” charges of discrimination at the agency IDHR and/or at the agency EEOC. Despite bringing this to Barack Obama’s attention Barack Obama and his office having full knowledge and understanding has continued to ignore the fact that I, one of his Illinois Hispanic American constituents, is unlawfully being treated unequally by IDHR & EEOC. IDHR & EEOC (For instance but not limited to) has attempted to dissuade me, an Illinois Hispanic American citizen, from filing charges, misrepresenting facts in the public record, and IDHR & EEOC is excluding & denying me , an Illinois Hispanic American citizen, a fair & full opportunity to memorialize my assertion of discrimination based on RACE on formal official “IDHR & EEOC” charges during the charge process without IDHR & EEOC ever providing in a clear straightforward honest manner an actual written legal justification that shows under what actual discriminatory Illinois law and/or federal law allows IDHR & EEOC to exclude any Illinois Hispanic American citizen from fairly & fully exercising their legal right to assert the exact same claim of discrimination based on RACE that other nonHispanics are allowed to & enjoy as matter of record at IDHR & EEOC. As a result of Barack Obama’s failure to insure that his Illinois Hispanic American constituents are not being prevented from fairly & fully exercising their legal right to assert discrimination based on RACE at the agencies IDHR & EEOC and Barack Obama’s failure to even call for an investigation to immediately redress this serious matter Barack Obama is effectively aiding and abetting Race discrimination, obstructing justice, and shielding Hormel Foods Corporation & UFCW from ultimately being held accountable for Hormel Foods Corporation and UFCW (for instance but not limited to) violating Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 by subjecting me an Illinois Hispanic American citizen to discrimination based on RACE. The fact and truth of the matter is Barack Obama can not deny that I one of his constituents, an Illinois Hispanic American citizen, brought to his attention that there is substantial evidence about IDHR & EEOC interfering with my right for an investigation into my claim of discrimination based on RACE against Hormel Foods & UFCW from ever being conducted to date. Because I , an Illinois Hispanic American citizen, have the audacity to believe I am equal under the Laws of the United States Of America I refuse to believe IDHR & EEOC, Hormel Foods Corporation & UFCW (Despite Barack Obama’s inaction) are above the law and will not ultimately be held accountable for the above mentioned actions.
Chaos45i at 2:04PM on Jul 2nd 2007