The revelation that both John McCain and Mitt Romney took in less money this quarter than last could mean nothing, or it could mean a lot.
Scenario one (at least in Romney's case) would be that the initial excitement of their campaigns meant that money flowed into their coffers from supporters. Those supporters gave early and often and there is only a finite base who will contribute and they did it in the first quarter.
McCain's issue is much, much deeper. His unequivocal support of the amnesty bill turned off the conservative base who, in turn, shut off the spigot. Things are so desperate that McCain may go the matching funds route--a tack that was unthinkable only three months ago.
Scenario two, however, is the more likely one; conservatives don't like McCain and don't think Romney has a chance to win. They believe that there's only one candidate who can beat either Obama or Hillary and that man is Fred Thompson. Thompson has yet to enter the race but has amassed serious cash through his website in donations from the entire spectrum. I suspect that once Thompson makes it official, he'll rake in money faster and in greater quantities than any other candidate running.
It should be interesting to see how Giuliani does collecting cash once Fred makes his expected July decision to run.
Update (7/3/07 1634): Giuliani's numbers are in. He raised $17-million. More than last quarter but significantly below Hillary and Barack Obama. I believe my theory will hold up--conservative are saving their dineros for Fred Thompson to declare. I predict he'll have a mammoth pool of money to spread his message.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. I'm sure there's even more Republican money out there than Democratic. But one of these candidates will have to earn it. Can Fred light a fire under the conservatives?
Steve Bonomo at 5:52PM on Jul 3rd 2007
2. i think the difference in campaign donatations speaks to the minds of the american people. people like the democrats and want a democratic president and like both Clinton & Obama. I agree though, Thomson is the wild card in the race and will undoubtably do better than any other GOP as far as fundraising, but Thompson is not the man if the GOP want to win a national election. He's not a good speaker and he doesn't do well the one thing the republicans will have to lie about and rely on to win them the white house again and thats painting the dems as weak on homeland security. Which is funny as seeing now the world hates us while under Clinton the world had a generally favorable view of the U.S.
Patrick at 11:46PM on Jul 3rd 2007
3. The foundation and political history of this land will never change if people understand the spirit of the constitution.For over two hundred years America never elected a woman president.To uderstand why nobody really knows except our Eternal Father and God Almighty.He is the supreme author of the Constitution through the mortal men that wrote it as they were inspired by his spirit.God is the same yesterday,today and forever.He will not allow this to happen or we will udermine his everlasting purpose and the very reason he spare this land in these our days.Gods way is not mans way and he will chose a man president not a woman one.Just as he created Adam before Eve he will always remind us through his Spirit that this Nation under his direction will always be governed by a man only.
Image at 8:22PM on Jul 4th 2007
4. ^What the hell is wrong with you? I'm a man and i would have no problem having a woman president. Why are you accusing god of being a sexist? he created everyone equal.
Patrick at 4:21PM on Jul 4th 2007
5. Patrick#3 Don't ask me ask God our Supreme Ruler and Kings of nations.Don't be afraid to talk to him but with your honest heart and intention,ask him why this is his plan and purpose particularly for this nation.Go and do exactly that and you will get the answer.And one more thing be humble before him.
Image at 9:32PM on Jul 5th 2007
6. Fred Thomson is only a shadow that doesn't move if you get that.By the time he finally gets in the race nobody believe nor trust anything he says.His corruption past is all over the internet and we'll only see and hear the ACTOR not a real presidential candidate.He lobby for a Dictator of one country? what the hell is that Scott and you try and promote this nonsense,he is really good at what he's doing in movies an Actor.
Jor at 3:06PM on Jul 5th 2007