As the summer gets hotter and the campaigns continue, it's becoming more and more clear that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination for president. It's true that Barack Obama could surge in the fall and winter and overtake her, but that is a long shot at best.
Taking that supposition into account, what blocs of voters would vote for Hillary in the general election? Let's take a minute to break down the various groups of voters that Hillary will need to appeal to to win.
Unions: While "Big Labor" will undoubtedly support Clinton with funding and manpower, the rank and file will be harder to convince. While president, Bill Clinton pushed and passed NAFTA, a trade agreement that allowed American companies to take jobs south of the border. It hurt union-heavy states in the Midwest and Southwest. I work with alot of union members in the construction trades and they are not in lock-step with leadership. They will do get out the vote events and such, but when they step into the voting booth, many will not pull the lever push the button for Hillary.
Feminists: While it seems pretty clear-cut that Hillary will draw a large block of support from women, there are many who don't like her and will not vote for her. Her behavior in the wake of the Lewinsky affair angered many self-described feminists. Hillary had the opportunity to show the world she could survive without old cheating Bill, but she opted to stay because she knew that she needed him on the campaign trail. In other words, she stayed with the Adulterer in Chief for no other reason that political expediency. That has earned her the ire of the feminist community.
Minorities: This is a bloc of voters that Hillary must win. While the African-American vote is essentially locked up regardless of who wins the primary, the Hispanic vote is not. There will be no pardoning of terrorists to gain favor this time. The recent brouhaha over immigration could play to her favor, yet it may not as President Bush supported the "shamnesty bill" as well. Depending if the candidate is Fred Thompson or Rudy, the issue may or may not play in her favor.
The South: To win the presidency, you must win most of the southern states. While winning New York, California and Florida would help, Hillary would need to carry Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina and South Carolina. That's not going to happen, especially if Fred Thompson is the candidate. Hillary is a carpetbagger and she's a Yankee carpetbagger at that. I don't see her pulling enough votes to win. Supposing she carries the northeast, New England, the upper Midwest and the west, she would still need to win in the South and they will not trust her. You may recall that southerner Al Gore couldn't win the South, how will elitist Hillary win it? The Democrat Party knows this full-well and is scared that she will win. Even if she were to take John Edwards as her running-mate, she still won't win with the possible exception of North Carolina.
The Anti-Warriors: Hillary has not come clean on her vote for authorizing military action against Iraq. Her anti-war street cred is limited and she knows that if she comes out hard against the war to burnish it, she will face a backlash by Independents that support the war and our troops and realize that terror is a paramount concern. Hillary is in a touchy situation, one that has no easy exit. Eventually, she will have to decide what side she wants to be on and that will be a crucial moment for her campaign. The media has actually hurt her in this regard by tossing her softballs and allowing her to dodge answering the most important question of the entire campign.
The Democrats have themselves a problem; Hillary has the name recognition and the money to win the nomination. If she does, she'll get beat in the General regardless of Bubba's guiding hand. The election will be close and with the way the media have deluded the country into thinking everything from the economy to the job market is horrid, the election should be the Democrat's for the taking. That's not the case.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 4)
1. All Hillary has to do is win all the states Kerry won in '04, which is very likely and win one other big state. She is looking very good in Ohio and Florida. She could win just one of those and be president. She could just win 2 Southwest states---she is popular in Colorado and New Mexico. It won't be that difficult for her because in the end it will be pro-war vs. anti-war, private medicine vs. universal healthcare, ideology vs. science, and maybe most importantly: another republican vs. a democrat. And you and I both know Hillary is with the American people on all those issues.
Go Hillary!!!
Patrick at 2:58PM on Jul 15th 2007
2. I saved Kerry in 2004 after Detroit. He stunk up the place as a Clinton clone and he was being misled on gun control. Kerry dropped the message and changed teams and he took off. I would say that he never looked back, but he did. He was ahead after the first debate and Clinton got off his sick bed and tripped him. Kerry didn't trust the people guiding him and he lost. As Democrats surged in 2006, he shot off his mouth and stopped our momentum. This is about Hillary. Don't compare her to Kerry because she doesn't have the same advisors. Unions are getting "Lip Service" from Billary. Gerry Ferraro doesn't care about infidelity but other Feminists do. Women vote their best interest. Billary looks like a "Bully" and that looks like no choice. If ladies get a choice anything can happen. The South is looking for a "Good Ole Boy" and Obama is Oprah's Boy. Hillary isn't antiwar. Finally, it's all about a third term for Billary. Why? Been there done that! I saw the stain. Billary won't take a Black VP. Obama has that wrapped up.
Cecil Jones at 4:25PM on Jul 15th 2007
3. If you look through history you will see that men have screwed up this country royally. The present so called President is being coached by his father who wanted a war when he was in office. Well he got it through his son, and instead of sending his daughter's to fight in the war he sends our sons and daughters to get killed for something we have no business in, in the first place. If other countries want to kill their own people let them as long as they do not kill Americans that is where I draw the line. Who are we to tell other countries how to treat their own people when we have 10 of millions straving to death, without jobs, homeless and our own government could careless. If you live in Texas you will know that if your son or daughter had done what the Presidents daughter's did by forging ID's and drinking under age you would have been fined and have gone to jail instead of getting a slap on the hand like his daughter's did. Also you will know that he has had the oil producing countries to his ranch in Texas. I wonder what he worked out with them for he could get paid under the table sort of speak. If our forefathers were alive today they would be appaulded by what this country has come to. This President bought the office he did not win it legally.
We need a woman to fix all the crap that men have put our country through. After all we are the stronger of the sexes. We go through child birth. Also if you look back in history you will see that every man that has been President has cheated on his wife some have just gotten caught. Where does it say when a man becomes President that he has the right to cheat on his wife and then cover it up. I give Mr. Bill Clinton at least he admitted to his mistake, this President we have a year ago his mother said over the internet do not ridicule my baby. My God the man is in his 50's and he has to have his mother stand up for him that is pretty sad. This one also needs to stop being a puppet for his father. I say send his daughter's to Iraq and you will see how fast we will pull out of that country. We also stick our nose where it does not belong no wonder why other countries hate us. We force our beliefs on other countries and we have no business doing that. Aren't they entitled to their own beliefs. We need to fix this country first before we start telling other countries how to live and run their governments. Go Hillary.
signe lauritzen at 5:02PM on Jul 15th 2007
4. Not I. We keep hearing from establishment Dem. candidates that Sen.
Obama
doesn't have enough foreign policy experience to be President.Yet
Sen. Obama had it right from the get-go--that this war is dumb and
stupid.On the other hand we have Hillary C. and John Edwards who
claim to have more knowlege and experience in this important area,
yet say that they were duped by by the Bush administration and
therefore voted for a war that they would not have otherwise voted
for (that is if they knew better). Well, which is it? Either they do
not have the experience or intelligence required for the job, OR,
(and I think that this is the case) CLINTON AND EDWARDS LACK THE
INTEGRITY TO STAND UP FOR WHAT IS RIGHT WHEN THEY PERCEIVE THAT IT
MAY BE DETRIMENTAL TO THEIR POLITICAL FUTURES. WE NEED A PRESIDENT
THAT IS A REAL LEADER LIKE OBAMA, NOT FOLLOWERS LIKE CLINTON AND
EDWARDS!
Phil Gordon at 5:29PM on Jul 15th 2007
5. Hillary is popular in Colorado?? Suddenly, I feel very ashamed.
Amanda at 6:36PM on Jul 15th 2007
6. ^well according to the polls
Patrick at 7:54PM on Jul 15th 2007
7. She's probably the default president unless a republican can guess where to be on the war in Iraq when it comes time to make a final stand.
Steve Bonomo at 8:56PM on Jul 15th 2007
8. who would vote for Hillary?
NOT ME...
and just because I am a woman she would be expecting to get my vote. There are more qualified and honorable women out there who can compete with her..
IRT2LTEE at 1:18PM on Jul 19th 2007
9. I will vote for Hillary.
Gary at 1:35AM on Jul 16th 2007
10. God forbid Hillary gets in office, actually in the current lineup God forbid any of the Democrats get in office !
Steve at 1:23AM on Jul 16th 2007
11. Mrs. Bill Clinton is a died in the wool socialist.
Democrats must fear the result if she wins the primary. This woman is a polarizor and if you think not....just wait until the general election.
Many women dispise her.
David at 1:32AM on Jul 16th 2007
12. A sad man Gary
Steve at 1:44AM on Jul 16th 2007
13. All the porn gals and men and the alcoholics loves her and adulterers as well.
Jor at 3:13AM on Jul 16th 2007
14. Yuk,what kind of president would that be.Theres enough porn clubs already.This nation have a big problem with adultries and sex offenders,they murder innocent young girls,daughters,mothers and wives.I would not dare think of a candidate that courted such type of people.
Realistic at 9:50AM on Jul 16th 2007
15. Socialist, Billary, establishment candidate, "Mrs. Bill Clinton"...every time I read drivel such as this, I realize we deserve the mess we're in -- Iraq, an ineffective Congress, the dumbest American president in the last 100 years, a dictatorial vice president, Alberto Gonzales, and Rumsfeld.
It will take decades to undo what this administration has done -- and to read that people actually believe that it is again okay to elect someone with minimum experience with how Congress or the world works...! I never cease to be amazed at how ignorant and illogical people can be. Think, people, think! Stop regurgitating what you hear! Do some homework and vet your sources before you spew thoughts that highlight your ignorance.
Nick in SF at 4:57PM on Jul 16th 2007