Phil posted yesterday about Fred Thompson's lower than expected fundraising effort so far. This prompted much speculation over whether Fred's fast rise in the presidential contest was overinflated and due for a reality check.
In response, Fred's team offered an explanation that makes sense. Keep in mind, that this is spin, but they make a good case. From National Review:
(1) In his first exploratory month, Thompson raised well over $3 million - more than 10x what Giuliani did in his first month and about 3x McCain. Here's the initial exploratory month (from the time they started taking money) for GOP candidates...
· Giuliani - total raised in first month (Nov. 15-Dec. 15): $258,660
· McCain - total raised in first month (Nov. 14-Dec. 14): $1,130,351
...
(2) Under FEC rules, you are not allowed to raise funds "in excess of what could reasonably be expected to be used for exploratory activities". Thompson has raised an appropriate amount for an exploratory phase. Note, however...
(3) So far we've utilized no direct mail or telephone fundraising, and we have a burn rate below 20% - far below the other candidates.
Captain Ed concurs:
We already know the Q2 fundraising for the current candidates. Extrapolating his fundraising to a full quarter, Fred would have raised $9 million as a non-candidate. That's what John Edwards raised in Q2 as a top-tier Democratic candidate, and only $2 million below John McCain. Had he met the $5 million goal, he would have outraised Romney and come just below Giuliani.
I think that Fred has no reason to panic. In fact, I'm a little suspicious of these themes of impending disaster halfway through the year before the primaries, especially for candidates and non-candidates who draft double-digit support in national polling.
Yep, the problem here is not one of money, but of managing expectations. Someone let it slip that the money was going to be around 5 million. If that was not an official number, someone from the campaign should have been out in front of that to reset the expectations. But even so it's probably not a big deal and not even fatal for the Thompson campaign.
However, big sighs of relief from the Giuliani, Romney and McCain camps. Now they know that Fred Thompson is human after all.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. JFK and RFK had their own money to campaign with, which meant they couldn't be compromised by the need to raise gobs of contributions to run an effective race.
So far there is no candidate running who doesn't need to worry about raising big bucks. Its the price of admission.
Steve Bonomo at 5:52PM on Jul 31st 2007
2. There we go America we are talking about Mr President Delay,I'm really sorry but I decided to delay signing this bill into law because I delay an appointment this morning which has been delay for several times due to delay on my scheduled trip to visit Amadinejad in Iran but got delay again today because my flight schedule has been in delay for several more days which it might continue delaying for few more months due to the Pilot Union delay strike because of the delay in negotiation between my private pilot and the AirForce due to some delay somewhere where things are continuing to delay.
Jor at 8:36AM on Aug 1st 2007
3. I cannot beleive that the American people seem to have no idea how dirty and bad the Clintons are. Being associated with an Arkansaw business man and a democrat I have been well informed of there past before they were ever national news. The press seems to have missed out on the Jerry Jones relationship as well.
RWBiddle at 1:36PM on Aug 1st 2007
4. COME ON FRED GET IT GOING, YOU SOUND LIKE SOMEONE I COULD VOTE FOR. LET'S HEAR FROM YOU, THE PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOUR VIEWS ARE.
ANNE PEARIGEN at 6:48PM on Aug 1st 2007
5. I think he's undecided still maybe he'll announce the day before the primaries.What dah hell!....
KaM at 3:13AM on Aug 2nd 2007
6. So who do you support? Are you to the right, left .. center? Do you change your mind from day to day .. or are you set to vote? In truth each of us have free choice. Its something we have had a long time .. and its all around freedom. It would seem that while we must be ready and willing to make sure there are no bully's on the school yard .. we must also be leaders in helping the world come to realize we are here, within the earth illuions, learning to communicate, create and come to love one another. There is a guy I would vote for if he presented himeslf .. but until then .. click on www.jesusmeetsthepress.com and see what he has to say.
Jim at 10:22PM on Aug 1st 2007