Barack Obama hits Hillary Clinton from an unexpected place -- the right. Obama has seen the poll numbers and he needs to make a strong statement about something... anything at this point. It could have been taxes, healthcare or some other red meat liberal issue, instead he talks tough militarily:
"Let me make this clear," Obama said in a speech prepared for delivery at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaida leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."
Earth to Barack, do you have any idea what kind of blowback would be involved in that? Pakistan is jihadi central with more madrassas than any other country in the world. People who become radicalized go there for training to spread their vision of the caliphate far and wide, how much of a quagmire that would be is incomprehensible. They have lands there that are not governable and the Pakistani army will not touch. Anyone with an iota of military sense knows full-well that the 4,000 killed in four years in Iraq would be a monthly number in Pakistan.
Perhaps a few facts have slipped by Obama and his staff:
- Musharraf is in a shaky position and would be overthrown as soon as we crossed the border;
- Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal that could be shipped anywhere;
- Pakistan is an ally in the War on Terror, albeit one that is not as strong as we'd like; and finally
- Al-Jazeerah will take this and use it for propaganda purposes tonight and inflame those who we need in this ongoing battle. The irreparable harm done can not be measured.
This is pure desperation on Obama's part and one can feel that he knows that he has to make a splash. This was probably the wrong way to do it.
Let me be clear about one thing: If we had intel concerning the whereabouts of Zawahiri or Osama bin Laden, I would be all for a quick strike in which we get in, get out and deny the whole thing so as not to arouse the Pakistani population. For all I know, we may have pulled raids such as that off. I am not for a full-scale invasion.
Join us next week as we dissect Barack Obama's plans to invade the holy city of Mecca.
Update (8/1/07 1400): The comments below made me think of something I omitted. Are those who support Obama in what he said going to support President Bush if he invade Pakistan tomorrow based on intel showing where bin-Laden is? Would they feel the same if bin-Laden were shown to be in Iran? Ask yourself those questions Obama supporters.
Update 2: OK, just to make it easy, here's the money quote (I generally prefer for people to click through to the link so they get the gist of the entire piece):
Obama said that as commander in chief he would remove troops from Iraq and putting them "on the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan." He said he would send at least two more brigades to Afghanistan and increase nonmilitary aid to the country by $1 billion.
Reader Comments ( Page 2 of 5)
16. Here's my take: Here you have a damn if you do...damn if you don't mentality. If Obama say nothing regarding his plan on a fight on terror, then he's considered "SOFT"...if he says "after acting of proper intelligence...we are going to smoke out terrorist and those that harbor them and it begins in Afganistan then he's considered "a rouge cowboy". President Bush has divided this nation is such a terrible way, that even those who support him don't know what they want. Do we want to rid ourselves of Al-Queda or NOT!! Make up your minds!!!!!!
DGreen at 4:49PM on Aug 1st 2007
17. GO OBOMA GO: Stand up, tell the truth and move forward. It is about time a politican did that instead of the constant weasling the others are doing.
GO OBOMA GO: While you are at it. How about on day two of your Presidency, appoint an INDEPENDENT COMMISSION that will seek out the truth behind the 9/11 attack. NO POLITICANS who have a party or past presidents to protect but commission members who will work for the truth of what happened on 9/11. You are that shining star that is giving hope to WE THE PEOPLE TO GET OUR NATION BACK ON TRACK where all people will be represented and not just the superwealthy and the corporations that line the other politician's pockets. GO OBOMA GO!!
Regina Levy at 4:54PM on Aug 1st 2007
18. Acting without thinking shows the political impatience of the Senator.
It's that kind of provincial politics that have gotten us in the position that we are in today.
We should not be engaged in paranoid politics, and if there is somebody out there planning to harm us more than we harm ourselves each day, then we should be planning ways to defend ourselves.
We are letting a handful of people dictate our political strategy.
Preemptive strikes, assasinations, etc is a Jewish solution, not an American solution.
War is inevitable and we all know this, but to act shamelessly, and recklessly is not an excuse to what we already know is true.
We will go to war and we will go in strong when we know that there is absolutely no other choice!
Chandler at 5:04PM on Aug 1st 2007
19. Jerry - it's nice to see someone interested in the facts. Read the entire text of the speech - available on the obama website among other places. You'll be surprised how unlike the headlines it is - and how asinine these comments look when you know what was really said.
medievalamy at 5:04PM on Aug 1st 2007
20. Obama's plan is an excellent plan... if we want to topple Musharraf's regime and allow an Iranian type of radical Islamic government to take over...
Hillary got it wrong.. Obama isn't naive... he's downright stupid..
pdg45acp at 5:05PM on Aug 1st 2007
21. When all of these politician's talk, it just sound's like a lot of bull to me. I am certainly not voting for Obama now.
Stacy at 5:25PM on Aug 1st 2007
22. I never liked "purple lips" anyway!
brenda at 5:45PM on Aug 1st 2007
23. Obama's the One!
My candidate of choice is and will be Barack Obama. I do hope, however, that Senator Obama is bluffing to get Prez/Gen Musharraf more active again in the "Global War on Terror" in the General's own backyard. Further, Barack need not make any additional hawkish statements to prove he has bigger (cannon) balls than Hillary...
UN OK?
Even with an actual plan to get in, do it, and get out, I opine that any USA large-scale miliary ground offensive in Pakistan would be suicidal. Sanctioning by the UN Security Council is another thing; US and Pakistan are both UN members, and Pakistan shares borders with China and India, among significant others (see below).
SITREP (Situation Report)?
Current USA troop morale, some troop retraining (from urban to mountain/desert), troop strength within fighting units trained as a team, new-soldier sourcing (Army now recruiting felons), gear readiness (mean-time-between-failures and between IEDs is low), dual role of the Guard (inability for rapid Homeland response to terror and natural disasters AND to meet overseas deployment demand), and DOD budget (now USD 12 Bil a month for Iraq and Afghanistan)- all would need a critical review and upgrade before jumping off.
I or We?
Recent history offers the advantage of multilateral engagements, coalitions, and allied diplomacy and force. Going it alone is plausibly deniable, less red tape and coordination. If you go fast, high, and dark, overflight rights are not a problem. Inflight refueling still works.
Geography
Nuke-armed Islamic Republic of Pakistan, perhaps the sixth largest country on earth, has a tentative incumbent governing regime; unique, varying, and militarily challenging terrain; unkind and ever-changing weather; and, no US-friendly tribal human (military)intelligence(HUMINT).
Pakistan's motto is "Unity, Discipline, and Faith," with 96% Muslims (3/4's Sunni),and one of the largest Shi'a populations of any country. Pakistan's 1500-mile northwestern border with Afghanistan is dominated by centuries-old regional tribal customs and remains highly conservative. Some 560 miles of border are contiguous with Iran on the southwest. Of its 169+ million people, Pakistan is home to 2.5 million Afghan-wars' refugees. Instability and separatism are ripe in the largest and western-most province of Balochistan. With a common border to the northeast of Balochistan are the Taliban-favoring Federally Administered Tribal Areas (seven agencies and six frontier regions), wherein Waziristan has seen local unrest.
Military Influence
Pakistan's military has significant influence over the country's governance and stability.
Summary So-far
Do you want salt and pepper on that shit sandwich?
Improbable external-military solutions
GPS-technically precise excision of ground targets
demands least-footprint, small teams of special operators on the deck near their targets OR remotely piloted air platforms. Locally-insighted unrest in distant, other provinces would provide diversions.
Earthquakes or armed conflict in the Kashmir could also serve as off-target public focus. Timing key.
Good Intel?
These scenarios require so-called "actionable intelligence." This becomes interesting, as best-spource intel, in part, is a mix of chatter-monitoring, remote sensing/analysis, and human sources. This last aspect is made interesting where the terrain is inhospitable, tribal customs and dialects are so unique, and where everybody knows everybody. You can't fake being taken for a local, and the bakshish/mordita bribe is more than likely met with the code of silence or an AK-47 round.
Bottom-line
Obama's Team retires momentarily to the drawing board, pauses for a deep breath, and resumes chats with folks conversant in SW Asia OPLANs; balanced budgets; and, budgets which support, with equity, national security, education, health care, Veterans' Affairs, and Social Security.
Audicity of Hope
Candidates can have "a chicken in every pot" and "a foot in every mouth," but not "a war in every country." We cannot afford it, financially and humanly. The Audacity of Hope needs to start at home; the War on Terror needs more carefully thought-out and less-public solutions.
Jan '09
The only continuity-of-government in the "Global War on Terror" I want to see in January of 2009, from Bush to Obama, is "kill the bastards, quietly, and get on with it."
Ephemeral Hiccough
I made the right decision in donating 200 bucks
(more to come in 2008!) to the Obama campaign. This recent kick-some-ass public roar is but an ephemeral hiccough in a very long campaign.
OBAMA '08!
So voters, keep those contributions flowing,
in both dollars and supportive, constructive critique. OBAMA '08! rvm
Ronald V. Murray at 6:33PM on Aug 1st 2007
24. al Qaeda seems to be like a virus spreading throughout the world. To kill them all would take a global assault. But if we could take away their money and their communications, we could paralyze them and protect the homeland .
A new, secure internet, at least in our own country, would help.
Steve Bonomo at 6:53PM on Aug 1st 2007
25. Your headline and poll stating that Obama will invade Pakistan is a lie. He said he will send troops to Afghanistan, and strike at Pakistan border areas if necessary, which is quite different than "invading Pakistan". Shape up, AOL !!"
Munir
Munir at 7:32PM on Aug 1st 2007
26. LOL, I'll just bet Osama is shaking in his boots at this threat by that pin headed little midget "wanna be" president. Foot in mouth disease will eventually undo most of the Dem candidates. They all have diarhea of the mouth and constipation of the brain. An uncurable malady, tsk, tsk.
audrey hobbs at 8:29PM on Aug 1st 2007
27. Osama Oama, I thought you wanted to bring the troops home? HELLO! HELLO!!
jbm at 8:34PM on Aug 1st 2007
28. Osama Bama,
You lie. You said you wanted the troops home. Stop bashing this President. If you even think you have a chance, you better be tough skin. You will reap everything you said about this President and more. So will your litte running mate Hillary.
jbm at 8:38PM on Aug 1st 2007
29. This is insane on Obama's part. He goes after Hillary last week for being "Bush-Cheney like" when it comes to diplomacy, yet he comes out and wants to invade a sovereign nation. Hmm, that sounds more Bush-Cheney like than Hillary. This guy goes from far-left one week to literally far-right the next. If you would have told me what he said and asked me to guess who wants to start a war on a 3rd front, i promise i would have said McCain or Guiliani, but now Obama. This guy is losing credibility by the minute, and this is from me....a liberal. Please guys, vote for Hillary.
Patrick at 8:45PM on Aug 1st 2007
30.
Regardless of whether he means border strikes, surgical strikes, or an invasion, he is talking about voilating international law. I am really disappointed to read these comments. There was, what I think, a lot of hype about Obama initially. I was less impressed with him during the debates and these comments have pretty much made sure that he will not get my vote. These comments are from someone desperate and shows his immaturity. He is talking about a country of 160+ million people that is a nuclear power. It is worse than the cowboy attitude that he is pretending to replace.
Usman.
Usman at 8:53PM on Aug 1st 2007