The latest USA Today poll has Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee all gaining while Mitt Romney falls 4%. Fred Thompson only gained 3% in this poll taken over the weekend, the first since he announced he's a candidate. Pretty modest numbers for a new candidate. The numbers also suggest as I noted earlier that McCain is indeed back in the race and must now be repositioned back into the top tier.
However, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Thompson leading Giuliani 26% to 22% meaning Fred took some votes from America's Mayor. The Rasmussen poll has historically had Giuliani closer to the field than others so no great change. That's a four point jump for Thompson, not a significant leap but something he may be able to build on.
With regard to Fred Thompson, I expected to see at least an 8-10 point surge after his announcement, but his long, drawn out pre-campaign nullified any great bump. The numbers I find intriguiging for Thompson is the high percentage who don't know him:
Thompson is significantly less well known than Giuliani or McCain - 28% of Republicans say they've never heard of Thompson, compared with 8% for Giuliani and 9% for McCain.
Among those Republicans who know all four leading contenders, Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied. In a head-to-head race among all GOP voters, Giuliani bests Thompson by 13 points, 53%-40%.
How can 28% not know who Fred is? That says to me that he was not very effective in getting his name out over the summer, a major campaign flaw and unforgiveable for a candidate who has been on a top-rated show for a couple of years. Apparently, those who do know of Thompson like him as he is tied with Rudy in that category.
Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo all posted the usual horrid numbers. It's surprising that Ron Paul hasn't broken 4% in any USA Today poll given his supposed clout in the race and his landslide victories in text and internet polls. I guess it doesn't translate to the real world.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)
1. No sir,
It is the "real world" results (straw polls are copnsucted in person) which do not translate into the pretend world of telephone polling with their cherry-picked lists, and their various secret "weightings".
And while it may be strange that Ron Paul hasn't gained in the telephone polls, it is hardly surprising, given the manner in which they are conducted, and the people conducting them.
Kevin Houston at 11:41AM on Sep 11th 2007
2. So! Is that mean anything on election day D-DAY.The wise man says NOT AT ALL.On that particular day(Primary or General Election)all is matter is your resume,your personal life,your records as an efective leader,your look,your Family Values and your stand on Core Issues.Oh and your Articulate.
KaM at 2:06PM on Sep 10th 2007
3. It's the polls that don't adhere to the 'real world'. Who knows who is on the call list, and these polls do not measure passion for their candidate by any means.
Dan at 2:09PM on Sep 10th 2007
4. The multi-texting fingers of the Fox debate are still tired? Oh,silly me,a single incoming phone call doesn't allow multi-texting. What are Ron's people to do?
Larry at 2:33PM on Sep 10th 2007
5. Alright Paulites, let's suppose (a huge supposition) that Paul was up to 15% (that's about 15% more than now), would you then be questioning the accuracy of polls? I doubt it very much.
Hey, I think there's a presidential poll over at sesamestreet.com, you better hurry and spam it so your boy wins the coveted 1-8 year old demographic.
Scott at 3:10PM on Sep 10th 2007
6. We Ron Paul supporters have work to do. There's no doubt about that. The Truth with a capital T is probably somewhere between the horrid land-land telephone poll numbers and the astoundingly good text message, straw poll, and internet numbers. It depends on how many of the dinosaurs who still answer land lines will actually stagger to the polling place for the primary. I'll tell you this much. We don't give up.
By the way, the Fox text-messaging poll was set up to reject multiple votes from the same cell phone. That's been well documented on YouTube. The Fox announcers were either ignorant of that or lying. With Fox, it's sometimes hard to tell.
Jive Dadson at 3:43PM on Sep 10th 2007
7. The economy is heading for such a hard, hard fall that whoever wins will be a one-term president. If Ron Paul does not win, it may very well be a one term republic. We cannot endure four more years of international imperialism and war, paid for on credit from the increasingly reluctant Chinese bankers.
Jive Dadson at 3:48PM on Sep 10th 2007
8. you must still look at the primary polls, & Romney is still well ahead of everyone else in Iowa & New Hampshire. For my thoughts on the race for the Republican nominee, as well as other political commentary, visit:
http://www.politidose.com/
Patrick at 8:26PM on Sep 10th 2007
9. Romney is still leading in New Hampshire & Iowa. for my thoughts on the race for the republican nomination & for more political commentary, visit:
http://www.politidose.com/
Patrick at 8:29PM on Sep 10th 2007
10. ONLY 1 Candidate truly wants to REDUCE Tax Dramatically. Who? Ron Paul --- Who doesn't want to pay less to the Gov't to spend wastefully each year?
Frank at 10:42PM on Sep 10th 2007
11. Scott,
You wouldn't know the "real world" if it hit you in the face.
Don Whitehead at 3:20AM on Sep 11th 2007
12. My Gawd.. what a choice! Rudy married his second cousin and was a Mayor..a mayor, and they say Obama is green in politic's..hahaha Ask the Fireman and Cop's how they feel on Rudy..NOT GOOD! Rudy back's the shamnasty bill on illegal's...Yea, let's put more American's out of work Rudy!
Get Real People!
Leslie Thompson at 6:26AM on Sep 11th 2007
13. Rudy has been married multiple times and has been caught cross dressing (I think more than once, too?). He loves to flaunt that he "took on the mob" in NYC but the extent of his cronyism is really quite frightening.
Then we have Thompson, a one-time unsuccessful senator turned K-street lobbyist turned Law & Order actor. He likes to take his private jet to a limo which takes him to his little red pickup which he then drives two blocks to a support rally. "Aww, shucks," if you think this guy is anything other than another Bush term, you don't deserve to vote!
Then we have Romney, a capitalism success story having been a successful businessman. With such strong corporate ties, does anyone really think he will put the common American interest above his own corporate supporters?
That leads me also to Paul. His attitude suggests a presidency of change, though some of his ideas are too drastic to transcend politics into effective policy. That, and video of him from the past won't exactly win him strong support from minority groups. But, he is a very frank candidate who chooses to directly answer questions rather than side step them with fancy speech "dance moves" taught to him by some political handler.
Perhaps Paul's support isn't a result of "frantic text messaging fingers" but rather Americans showing their strong appetite for an honest candidate who would be a defender of the Constitution, a supporter of states' rights, and a candidate who will put an end to this ridiculous war. But sadly if he really did get elected, all we'd probably end up with is another JFK!
matt at 8:16AM on Sep 11th 2007
14. Leslie, the city Rudy was only a mayor of has more people in it than most states in this country.You need to put things into persepctive. As mayor of NY, he has more experience than most governors. And as an EX NY-er who returbed to a city I did not even recognize anymore because it had been cleaned up by Rudy, I know he did what everyone said could not be done.
al at 10:14AM on Sep 11th 2007
15. Call Your Federal Representative Immediately:
Now is the time to end the "Anchor Baby" issue and to stop forcing the American Citizens to pick up the medical tabs of the illegal aliens once and for all. Ask your Senator and Representative to support a bill that makes a section of any hospital a UN zone. This is similar to Embassy soil in that any illegal alien would be sent there for treatment of illnesses and births and then the UN can send the illegals home country the bill for the medical services. Babies born there would be citizens of the mothers home nation and would no longer be saddled up on the backs of the hard working American Citizens.
Paul Sparcello at 10:33AM on Sep 11th 2007