The McCain Bounce

Ryan Sager does a stand up job taking apart the effort to resuscitate John McCain in the media.

Once considered by some the unquestionable front-runner for the GOP nomination (despite every poll showing Mayor Giuliani out front), over the summer the Straight Talker has been having his obituary typed up like a frail pope with a robust head cold. Now, however, the press is ready to declare a McCain "rebound." A Washington Post columnist, David Broder, recently said Mr. McCain has found his footing; the Manchester Union-Leader penned an editorial heralding, "A comeback begun," and the Arizona Republic said, " McCain is on the rise."

It's only a matter of time before Newsweek runs a cover declaring Mr. McCain "The Comeback Kid" or some other such nonsense.

Humbug - to put it politely. Mr. McCain certainly has seen a bounce since August, when he bottomed out with national numbers such as 7% in the Fox News poll and 11% in the Quinnipiac poll. Now, he's back up to an average of around 15%, exactly where he was in July and 10 points down from where he was in January. So, yes, call it a bounce - like a dead cat hitting the pavement.

That front-runner status was always a fiction, and the perception relied on an ignorance of what the average Republican voter really thought about McCain. The only thing changed is that the CW became a bit more educated as a result of the immigration debate and the aftermath.

The latest fundraising numbers put it in perspective. In the first quarter, McCain raised $12.5 million. In the second quarter, he raised about $11 million. Now in the third quarter, he's raised only $3.7 million with next to no cash on hand? That's not the direction you want to be moving in. Now that the numbers are out, the other campaigns won't take him seriously and neither will the media. McCain is over. But then again, he always was.

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