If you take some time to poke around the web, the consensus opinion among professional pundits and amateur wannabes like myself is that the Republicans don't really stand a chance in 2008. They talk of veto-proof majorities and Congressional landslides as if they are a given.
I say not so fast and hear me out on this before you break out your crayons and write that I'm wrong.
On the Dem side, Hillary is far and away the frontrunner with no one within a stones throw. Obama made some noise as did Edwards (Elizabeth, not John) but it added up to squat. It was Hillary's race from the beginning and anyone who even dreamed it wasn't was deluding themselves. She has the money, the advisors and Bill, 'nough said.
On the GOP side, you have a wide-open race. I say Giuliani is currently the frontrunner but Fred Thompson is giving him agita and McCain and Romney could surprise once the primaries begin. In other words, the Republicans have no clear cut leader.
Hillary will be anointed in February leaving her wide open to attacks from all corners. I suspect that Obama and Edwards will still be in the race but will be extremely desperate and have no choice but to hit Hillary hard from the left while at the same time the GOP will open up from the right. It will be non-stop Hillary bashing for months. Her actions at that time are critical and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hsu story continues to break hitting its crescendo right around early spring making her a huge target. The Dems are hip to this and some leaked info spells it out in detail:
The private memo, leaked to The Washington Post, painted what researchers described as a "sobering picture" for Democrats who believe that President George W Bush's disastrous favourability numbers almost guarantee they will capture the White House next year.
All party preference polls show that Democrats are much more popular than Republicans. But when the names of individual candidates are used, the gap narrows considerably....The leaked poll found that Mr Giuliani, a centrist Republican with liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gay rights, leads Mrs Clinton by 49 per cent to 39 per cent in the swing districts.
By the time the GOP race is decided, she will be battered and the GOP candidate will have survived a bruising race leaving him experienced and hungry. Factor in that Hillary has the highest negatives of any candidate in history and Bush-Clinton fatigue and you have the makings of a GOP upset. Not only in the presidential race either, Hillary's polarizing nature will bring a slew of conservatives and Republicans out just to vote against Hillary and they'll vote Republican straight down the line. Will the GOP regain the House? No, but the Senate may well be a possibility if the RNC can pound home the fact that this has been the single-most inactive Senate in three decades.
I'm not going to go out on a limb and predict that a Republican wins, yet the scenario I've spelled out is plausible. We still have five months before the first primary ballot is cast (unless some state moves it up to November 2007) so a lot of things can happen between now and then.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 2)
1. A third candidate may come from the ranks who lost in the conventions to contend for them. Giuliani, Romney, Obama, and Edwards all have a good chance of bieng picked up by Unity08, which will nominate its own ticket regardless of party affiliation. This could split the republican votes. This could draw grudge votes to a second democrat, just as easily as it would sway grudge votes to the GOP. I think this will be an exciting race.
Jamie Bloom at 12:18AM on Sep 27th 2007
2. Your insight may very well play out just that way. Having just watched the debate on MSNBC: Hillary aready appears to be showing sings of being battered. She looked very tired. Avoided direct answers (dodging again) or flat refusing to answer. One point that is important to those that are learned Christains is going to work against her. They asked all the candidates what their favorite Bible verse was. They all gave a verse or a story from the Bible, but her. Her answer while good as a global ethic principle; "The Golden Rule--Do unto others as you'd have them do unto you.", Is not a Bible verse at all. No where in the Bible will that 'verse' be found. There are verses that could be said to sum up that way. But to many, knowing the Good Book well, are going to take as a negative her not knowing that, given her prior claims of deep faith. While many have commented that we are not voting for a pastor, it still won't go over well with the faithful believers. Edwards actually came out strong in the debate tonight. But don't think he can bump Hillary out yet. They better keep him in the backup spot because she is going to be in big trouble after the primaries.
Larry at 1:03AM on Sep 27th 2007
3. wE got to make are presdent geORgge e BUShy are perment presdent cause hes a reel smart boy and he nos we got to have them wars ofer their were them folks are terists and he dont want them to do that no mror
Alan Lantzer at 8:15AM on Sep 27th 2007
4. There is discontent among the public with both parties, to be fair about it. No party is a shoo-in in 2008 for the presidency. But remember we have had eight years of a conservative Republican, and after that many years, folks want a change.
Yes, Hillary is polarizing, but I have not heard all Republicans going wildly for Rudy either. Some conservatives only support him because they think he is the only one who can beat Hillary, I assume because of name recognition.
David S. at 4:14PM on Sep 27th 2007
5. It all depends on who get the Republican Nomination. Without a threat from the Democrat right Hillary has moved left in order to get the nomination. She will move back to the Center once the nomination is hers and begin to paint the Republican Nomination as far Right. Which will work after what has been preceived as a far right adminastration for the last 8 years.
All that changes if Giuliani is the nominee. He will be able to stake out the center paint her as a far left liberal. Then if (not that far fetched) he picks Liberman as VP, it will push Hillary even farther to the left. It will be a bigger GOP landslide than Nixon in '72 or Reagan in '84.
It depends on the Republican Right. They hold the key, if they are stupid: It will be President Hillary Rodham maybe Clinton.
Joe at 5:30PM on Sep 27th 2007
6. From: Joe at 5:30PM on Sep 27th 2007
5. It all depends on who get the Republican Nomination. Without a threat from the Democrat right Hillary has moved left in order to get the nomination. She will move back to the Center once the nomination is hers and begin to paint the Republican Nomination as far Right. Which will work after what has been preceived as a far right adminastration for the last 8 years.
All that changes if Giuliani is the nominee. He will be able to stake out the center paint her as a far left liberal. Then if (not that far fetched) he picks Liberman as VP, it will push Hillary even farther to the left. It will be a bigger GOP landslide than Nixon in '72 or Reagan in '84.
It depends on the Republican Right. They hold the key, if they are stupid: It will be President Hillary Rodham maybe Clinton.
V -Sorry Joe....cross-party presidential tickets went out with tri-corner hats and black powder muskets.
The Taliban wing of the Republican party will never rally around Giuliani. Their M.O. is to allow candidates who are not sufficiently reactionary to go down in flames to further distill the purity of the party representatives. Remember what happened to Dole in '96?
Clinton's record, meanwhile, is every bit as centrist as Giuliani's.
No one is paying attention to Obama or Edwards now, much less so will be the case in the future, and Scott, no doubt consumed with trying to figure out the definition of victory in Iraq, has seemed to have forgotten a couple of facts learned long ago....i.e., that fundraising scandals are complicated and unsexy and do nothing more that elicit yawns from the electorate and two, there is no such thing as Clinton fatigue. Were it not for the 22nd Amendment, Bill Clinton would still be president.
Ventrue at 5:59PM on Sep 27th 2007
7. I know plenty of republicans who are disenchanted with the GOP, but NONE that will vote for "Shrillery". Imagine listening to that carping nasal voice for four years. Or hearing about Bill's sexual indescretions again. No thanks.
Leslie at 8:02PM on Sep 27th 2007
8. THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN AGAIN!JOHN McCAIN WILL COME OUT FROM NO WHERE AND SHOW HILLARY CLINTON WHAT HE'S GOT.SHE HAS PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN THAT SHE CANNOT BE TRUSTED ALONG WITH RUDY AND OBAMA.SENATOR JOHN McCAIN MIGHT NOT HAVE THE TAINTED FUNDS, BUT HE HAS THE SMARTS AND THE WILL AND DETERMINATION TO RUN THIS COUNTRY.SENATOR McCAIN IS RESPECTED, DEDICATED TO HIS COUNTRY.HE IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE THAT I HAVE SEEN FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS CAMPAIGN TO STICK TO HIS GUNS.HE MEANS WHAT HE SAYS AND DOES WHAT HE MEANS.AND HE DOESN'T TRY TO MUNIPULATE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.McCAIN HAS MY VOTE !www.John McCain.com
Cateyespretty at 2:46AM on Sep 28th 2007
9. WE NEED MORE RELIGION IN OUR SCHOOLS, HOMES, TELEVISION,INTERNET,BOOKS, MEDIA,BILLBOARDS,BUILDINGS,TAXI CABS, AND WHEREEVER ELSE WE CAN PUT IT.PEOPLE ARE ANGRY, AND GOD IS THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE THIS WORLD! BUILD MORE CHURCHES,IF YOU WANT TO SPEND MONEY! SPREAD CHRISTIANITY THROUGH THE WORLD,IT WILL BRING PEOPLE TOGETHER AGAIN.GOD SAID,I AM THE WAY,THE TRUTH AND THE LIFE.AND CHRISTIANITY IS FORGOTTEN.....WE CAN GIVE ADVISE ALL WE WANT,BUT NOT THE WISDOM TO PROFIT FROM IT.
Cateyespretty at 2:48AM on Sep 28th 2007
10. Hilliary is finished the game is over.Romney will choose his running mate after his nomination in few months from now.He definitely will be the next American President.
KaM at 3:08AM on Sep 28th 2007
11. It's sally for any Rep to think they can win the White House in 08. With Bush pushing to invade or Murder the Iranians by a three day bombing Biltz will make American stand up against all Rep's. Not one person I know will vote for Rep's as it is now.
Dancerpl2 at 3:41AM on Sep 28th 2007
12. DREAM.....DREAM...YOU DONT HAVE TO PAY ANYTHING TO DREAM....BUT SORRY REPUBLICAN FRIENDS....NO MORE REPS.IN 08...EVERYTHING GOT SCREWED UP....IT IS GOING TO BE A DEMS.PRESIDENT....
gt at 7:32AM on Sep 28th 2007
13. Ventrue you seem to be afflicted with LSM - Liberal Selective Memory. There is no way Bill Clinton could have ever won a 3rd term even without the 22 Amd.
At the time he was more unpopular with Democrats than Bush is with Republicans today. After the taking of bribes for pardons, his own VP didn't want him to campaign with him, his Presidential Library was considered a joke by the press.
It wasn't until Bush 41 helped elevate him to the status of a former President with Tsunami Relief did he begin to get respect again.
And if you think Hillary is a centrist, that just goes to show you how far left the Dems have become. Maybe to the Move On Crowd that runs (owns) the Democrat Party she is a centrist, but to the rest of the county she is a left wing liberal boarding on Socialist. All of my Liberal friends in California & the Northeast say they would never vote for her, unless the Republicans would put up someone like Newt.
Face it Hillary has more Negatives than a Battery Store.
BTW Please name one major accomplishment of Hillary Clinton? Exactly what experience does she have that she keeps telling everyone? In her 1 term as an elected representative she has not authored a single piece of major legislation. While her husband was President the one thing she tried to do (and was never elected to do) Healthcare was a failure and the only job she was required to perform she was so bad at it that her Husband had to find a fat 20 year old intern to do the job right.
Joe at 2:42AM on Sep 29th 2007
14. From: Joe at 2:42AM on Sep 29th 2007
14. Ventrue you seem to be afflicted with LSM - Liberal Selective Memory. There is no way Bill
Clinton could have ever won a 3rd term even without the 22 Amd.
At the time he was more unpopular with Democrats than Bush is with Republicans today.
V -Sorry to have to be the one to inform you of this Joe, but Bill Clinton left office with a job approval rating, in the mid to upper sixty percent range, depending on which poll you read. This figure is nominally higher than the final approval rating of conservative messiah, Ronald W. Reagan.
It's been several years since Dubya saw numbers that high and with less than 16 months to go in his term, unless something dramatically positive happens in Iraq between now and then, those numbers are only going to go lower. As it is, Bush's numbers are only slightly ahead of those of Carter and Nixon at the end of their terms.
J -After the taking of bribes for pardons, his own VP didn't want him to campaign with him,
V -And that was Gore's single biggest strategic error, and the one that ultimately allowed Bush to get within strinking (or more accurately, swiping) range of an election that was Gore's to lose in 2000.
Fact of the matter is, were Clinton allowed to run again, he'd mop the floor with ANY of the first/second/third/last tier candidates from either party. What bribes for pardons would you be referring to?
J -his Presidential Library was considered a joke by the press.
V -By the so-called liberal media that supposedly support him and his policies by a margin of 9 to 1....or would you be referring to Regnery press?
J -It wasn't until Bush 41 helped elevate him to the status of a former President with Tsunami Relief did he begin to get respect again.
V -Time out for a fact break, Joe....Clinton achieved the status of a former president when he left office. He did not need 41 to do this for him.
J -And if you think Hillary is a centrist, that just goes to show you how far left the Dems have become.
Maybe to the Move On Crowd that runs (owns) the Democrat Party she is a centrist, but to the rest of the county she is a left wing liberal boarding on Socialist. All of my Liberal friends in California & the Northeast say they would never vote for her, unless the Republicans would put up someone like Newt.
V -Really now...and assuming that she gets the nominiation, who are these alleged liberal friends of yours planning to vote for? Giuliani, who will never get past the Luddites in the GOP nominating deligation? Last Minute Fred Thompson? Microwave Conservative Romney? The second and third tier candidates are too far to the right for the general electorate, so who exactly are those alleged liberals going to vote for?
And while we're at it, what is the deal with the conservative obsession with MoveOn.org? They must really be a thorn in the side of those on your side of the political spectrum considering how much bile is vented upon them. I dare say that the opinions MoveOn holds far more sway with conservative than centrist or leftist voters.
Oh, and BTW...that Red baiting of yours is a dog that simply won't hunt any more. Not every person who is to the left of the John Birch Society is necessarily a socialist, and middle America simply does not soil its collective underwear anymore when that term is casually misused by people like yourself. Your task is to join us in the 21st century and come up with a new and more effective buzzword that won't make the voters think of, er, Joe McCarthy and blacklisting.
J -Face it Hillary has more Negatives than a Battery Store.
V -Uh huh...and what are her numbers compared to those of the man she seeks to replace? Everything is relative, Joe.
J -BTW Please name one major accomplishment of Hillary Clinton? Exactly what experience does she have that she keeps telling everyone? In her 1 term as an elected representative she has not authored a single piece of major legislation. While her husband was President the one thing she tried to do (and was never elected to do) Healthcare was a failure and the only job she was required to perform she was so bad at it that her Husband had to find a fat 20 year old intern to do the job right.
V -Oooh...now that was a rather nasty (not to mention sexist) comment. What evidence do you have to support your opinion?
As far as your question is concerned, I could respond by redirecting the question and asking what major piece of legislation have any of the Republican frontrunners authored, but the more direct answer is that it is quite difficult for a first term senator who was a member of the minority party for her entire first term to get any legislation she may have authored even to the floor for a vote. I realize you're partisan, but at least be fair.
Hillary has as much political experience as the current occupant of the WH had when he ran, and in any event, she is seeking the top of the EXECUTIVE branch, so seeking to somehow discredit her by looking at her LEGISLATIVE record is a dubious tactic at best.
Ventrue at 5:40PM on Sep 29th 2007
15. HILLARY CLINTON NEEDS HER HEAD EXAMINED.INSTEAD OF WANTING TO GIVE COLLEGE BONDS TO EVERY AMERICAN BORN CHILD, SHE SHOULD BE WANTING TO HELP THE PEOPLE OF NEW ORLEANS WHO ARE STILL LIVING IN A GULLY IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA, AFTER BEING HIT BY HURRICANE KATRINA.THE CITY IS GONE AND CLINTON HAS KNOW IDEA HOW MUCH THE PEOPLE OF LOUISIANA ARE SUFFERING.PARENTS CAN SEND THERE OWN DAMN KIDS TO COLLEGE.WE NEED HOUSES TO LIVE IN OUT HERE ! AND OUR LEVEES BUILT UP.AND GOVERMENT FUNDING. I WOULDN'T VOTE THIS AIR HEAD IN FOR PRESIDENT IF THEY PAID ME.JOHN McCAIN HAS MY VOTE.THE SENATOR IS RIGHT, THERE IS TOO MUCH WASTEFUL SPENDING.IF CLINTON WANTS TO FUND THESE KIDS FOR COLLEGE LET HER DO IT WITH HER OWN TAINTED MONEY! LET HILLARY CLINTON LIVE IN A 12X12 TRAILER FOR 2 YEARS, LETS SEE HOW SHE LIKES IT. VOTE JOHN McCAIN FOR PRESIDENT!
Cateyespretty at 12:37AM on Sep 30th 2007