Again, to Jay's point, the polls right now dictate the chatter, but they hardly give any indication about where we're headed. Let's take a quick look back at the trajectory of the '04 race in Iowa. In late October 2003 - still another four weeks from where we are in this year's race - Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were running neck and neck, with John Kerry a distant third and John Edwards a very distant fourth. The race remained frozen in that position through the beginning of January as shown by an Iowa Poll taken just two weeks before the caucuses. Another Iowa poll taken just days before the vote picks up on the significant movement occurring as people focused on the race. And we all know how the final results looked...That certainly is true, in 2004 things did shift enormously, at least two times on the Democratic side. We had the collapse and rebirth of John Kerry, we had the collapse of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.
But my argument is not based on the idea that Hillary is unassailable because she is so far ahead. Rather she is so far ahead because her challengers are fatally flawed candidates. In other words. She's unstoppable because there is no one running who can stop her.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
But back to my argument. Hillary is not unstoppable because she is so far ahead in the polls. She is far ahead in the polls because the Democrats realize they have no other real choice. I just don't see that changing.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 5)
1. Voters always have the last word. Always.
David S. at 8:23PM on Sep 29th 2007
2. What part of the words "JOE BIDEN" is so hard for you people to figure out?
He's smart, experianced, can win votes from people who want a long term occupation of Iraq and a withdrawl, (depending on how Iraq turns out).
And while some people talk about compromising with the GOP, *coughObamacough* Biden has actually done it! He's done with with Social security and Iraq.
James at 8:56PM on Sep 29th 2007
3. HILLARY CLINTON NEEDS HER HEAD EXAMINED.INSTEAD OF WANTING TO GIVE COLLEGE BONDS TO EVERY AMERICAN BORN CHILD, SHE SHOULD BE WANTING TO HELP THE PEOPLE OF NEW ORLEANS WHO ARE STILL LIVING IN A GULLY IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA, AFTER BEING HIT BY HURRICANE KATRINA.THE CITY IS GONE AND CLINTON HAS KNOW IDEA HOW MUCH THE PEOPLE OF LOUISIANA ARE SUFFERING.PARENTS CAN SEND THERE OWN DAMN KIDS TO COLLEGE.WE NEED HOUSES TO LIVE IN OUT HERE ! AND OUR LEVEES BUILT UP.AND GOVERMENT FUNDING. I WOULDN'T VOTE THIS AIR HEAD IN FOR PRESIDENT IF THEY PAID ME.JOHN McCAIN HAS MY VOTE.THE SENATOR IS RIGHT, THERE IS TOO MUCH WASTEFUL SPENDING.IF CLINTON WANTS TO FUND THESE KIDS FOR COLLEGE LET HER DO IT WITH HER OWN TAINTED MONEY! LET HILLARY CLINTON LIVE IN A 12X12 TRAILER FOR 2 YEARS, LETS SEE HOW SHE LIKES IT. VOTE JOHN McCAIN FOR PRESIDENT!
Cateyespretty at 11:06PM on Sep 29th 2007
4. It appears that Hillary is the medias darling. Just wait until after the primaries - whoever is the GOP nominee will be the media's darling. The "liberal" media will drop her like a hot potato. I for one will rebel against the media choosing our President. They picked Bush and look at the mess we got.
Lynne at 12:51AM on Sep 30th 2007
5. Hillary will win because she is the best person for the job. She is the only candidate that combines experience and change, and thats what this country needs.
for political commentary, visit:
http://www.politidose.com/
Patrick at 9:49AM on Sep 30th 2007
6. why are they blamng clinton for the people still living in trailer. who is the president right now?? why is it her faul? time for people to get there heads on straight.i don't know why anyone would want to be president after the mess bush has made of this country.clinton left this country in good shape & as soon as bush got in office got us into one mess after another.
sue at 11:22AM on Sep 30th 2007
7. Your argument is very sound. To say the other candidates are "fatally flawed" is kind of a gross underestimation of the situation. I remember being disturbed that all these primaries were being moved up because I thought it wouldn't give me time to make up my mind. Well, it turns out that they seem almost too far away now.
As people who attack other's opinions know by now, my mind IS made up and I am very happy with my choice of Hillary Clinton. My Dad had told me that a good primary season leaves you wondering if you are making the right choice when you go to the polls. I asked him how long its been since he experienced that. He said..."Well, let's just say it hasn't been in your lifetime." I turn 45 next month.
I've noticed that most of the negative comments I've gotten that refuse to address the topic itself; only my opinion...never state who they are for and why...leading me to believe they just hate Hillary. I avoid toxic negative people in my personal life...why would I put up with it here? I look forward to her eight years in the White House and whether she will be able to leave a surplus like her husband; instead of a huge mess from our own backyards to around the world.
Respectfully,
Mr. Clark
Mr. Clark at 11:50AM on Sep 30th 2007
8. You are right that there are NO qualified Dem. candidates this time around. When someone with the disgracefulness of Hillary is leading the polls, it says everything about the rest. Its sad when the very worst person for America is seen as the best they can offer. No wonder they have sunk the congress to record low ratings. Even so she is going to fall down soon. To much history to survive, when it all comes out.
Larry at 1:27PM on Sep 30th 2007
9. IN Iowa
Obama: 28%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 22%
R A P at 10:09PM on Sep 30th 2007
10. Oh stop wearing it out - 55% voters are Undecided. That's not because no candidates are worth their vote - it's because they don't pay attention to primaries. You have, traditionally, about a whopping 25% of eligible voters participating in a primary. For African Americans, it's been a pathetic 1-2% of primary voters are black. This year, really, do you think the black vote will be 1-2%? I don't think so. Do you think the Hillary vote for dubbing the Iranian Guard "terrorists" is going to win her much love among Democrats, especially? I saw her supporters at a rally by my city today, before and after I went to a Grand Opening celebration of the new Obama headquarters. A mere two volunteers waved signs at passers-by. The line, half an hour before she was scheduled to appear, was a mere half-block long. Her crowd was monochromatic, i.e., about 80% women and about 90% white, and mostly older voters. The crowd at Obama's was anything but monochromatic, in age, race, religion. It was an energetic crowd, making more noise without Obama there than Hillary's crowd did anticipating her appearance in person! When I tabled the day prior for Obama, a Hillary supporter yelled her support for HRC, along with a "She'll keep all those damn immigrants out!" Every Obama supporter was polite, thankful, generous, many but certainly not all were African American as I live in the diverse Bay Area, CA - which makes Hillary's crowd stand out even more in the area! Plenty of black Democrats with the DLC have supported Hillary; their constituents have not followed. Many women prefer Obama for his policies; Hillary will not woo them because on war, on diplomacy, on genocide, on healthcare, on taxes, on trade, on energy - they are night and day, pro-lobbyist vs. anti-lobbyist politics. The lobbyist issue is not "insider" politics - every person you talk to is pretty much against lobbyist influence. Hillary can and will be stopped, despite the hype from the Democratic Leadership Council/DLC. It's the party machine of Joe Lieberman, former Chair, as Hillary was former Chair and now Honorary Member of the DLC. They want Iran to be attacked. We don't. Hillary loses.
V at 2:47AM on Oct 1st 2007
11. It is time to elect a woman as our president.I am a man but I am fed up with these corrupted people...They all liars...I checked the history of the woman premiers in the world...they all did or doing pretty good job...less corrupted than men...Golda Meyer,Indira Gandhi,Sirimao,Benazir Bhutto,Former British PM,Philippines,Bangladesh,Current German Chancellor,Jamaica....and goes on....Well it is time for us also...Lets try it.....I am pretty sure a woman can save this screwed up mess happenend to our country....at least less corruption....
gt at 10:25AM on Oct 1st 2007
12. There is a group of folks who will not vote for Hillary under any circumstances -- won't even listen to what she has to say, because they already know in their hearts that she a murderer, communist, crook, elitist, lesbian, whatever... take you pick. There was a time that made me wonder about her as an electable democratic candidate, but the more I listen to those folks froth and rave, the more I realize that they're not going to vote for ANYONE running on the democratic ticket, under ANY circumstances, so why listen to them?
Frank at 10:46AM on Oct 1st 2007
13. #12 Frank
"There was a time that made me wonder about her as an electable democratic candidate, but the more I listen to those folks froth and rave, the more I realize that they're not going to vote for ANYONE running on the democratic ticket, under ANY circumstances, so why listen to them?"
Maybe inside some of the froth and foam an occassional "pearl of wisdom" might slip thru
or someone may ask a question that you may ask yourself about. The local paper that I read is
slightly to the right of the Berkley Barb (IMHO)
Evanthough alot of the op-ed pieces are clearly
slanted, it still is worth reading. At least it gives some insight as to where some people on these
blogs come up with their ideas. Also I enjoy the
Ciber Quote puzzles. As for my "froth and rant", here goes: How is it I do not hear any opinions
from the democratic voters saying " Hey just a
minute, did I miss something ? I haven't cast a vote yet , neither has anyone else or are we just going to skip that minor thing and just have a "coronation for her". All it will take is a few
primary votes and things could be upside down. Also
who is driving this "inevitability" of her ascension
to the throne. Could it be person or persons connected to that campaign that are trying stifle
consideration of other candidates ?
Lots of people will cross party lines in general
elections. "Why did the chicken cross the road ?"
He must of had or been given a reason to do so. The same with voters. If you keep offering up the same
cast of characters people will not cross the road.
JZeeeeeee at 9:59AM on Oct 3rd 2007
14. If the clintons get back in office watch drug use zoom out of control they are in cahoots with bush and now making money on privatized prisons
If you want to know about the clintons and how they make money (on Drugs) on the lives of children see their past history.
just google "clinton cocaine arkansas"
or "clinton privatized prisons"
or google "amy goodman marian edleman hillary clinton july 24 2007"
SEE = Daniel Patrick Moynihan opposed the Clintons' Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act--their "welfare reform" law. When it was passed, Moynihan called it "the most brutal act of social policy since Reconstruction."
google "clinton crack cocaine prison"
OR just go to my newsvine and see it all = http://danielleclarke.newsvine.com/_news/2007/10/01/996857-hillary-and-the-death-penalty-the-clinton-welfare-reform-law-mandates-a-five-year-cumulative-lifetime-cap-on-the-benefits-you-are-off-the-rolls-forever-the-safety-net-that-eleanor-roosevelt-and-her-husband-worked-so-hard-to-get-into-law-has-been-t?threadId=156777&cmt=1069745#c1069745
MENA CONNECTION: Clinton, Cocaine & Coverup = youtube = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqY3pMcW8DI
VOTE OBAMA FOR A REAL HONEST GOVERNMENT
BUSH ALLOWED THE DRUGS TO FLY INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH TEXAS THEY ARE BOTH IN CAHOOTS TOGETHER
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=TSHB,TSHB:2006-45,TSHB:en&q=bush+clinton+arkansas+texas+cocaine
GOOGLE = bush clinton arkansas texas cocaine
Danielle Clarke at 10:11AM on Oct 3rd 2007
15. Hillary will win the democratic nomination cuz GW said so. Vetoe that be-otches!
just kidding. I was hoping for a fresh face but I forgot the richest people get to become president.
David McCool at 5:16PM on Oct 3rd 2007