Again, to Jay's point, the polls right now dictate the chatter, but they hardly give any indication about where we're headed. Let's take a quick look back at the trajectory of the '04 race in Iowa. In late October 2003 - still another four weeks from where we are in this year's race - Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were running neck and neck, with John Kerry a distant third and John Edwards a very distant fourth. The race remained frozen in that position through the beginning of January as shown by an Iowa Poll taken just two weeks before the caucuses. Another Iowa poll taken just days before the vote picks up on the significant movement occurring as people focused on the race. And we all know how the final results looked...That certainly is true, in 2004 things did shift enormously, at least two times on the Democratic side. We had the collapse and rebirth of John Kerry, we had the collapse of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.
But my argument is not based on the idea that Hillary is unassailable because she is so far ahead. Rather she is so far ahead because her challengers are fatally flawed candidates. In other words. She's unstoppable because there is no one running who can stop her.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
But back to my argument. Hillary is not unstoppable because she is so far ahead in the polls. She is far ahead in the polls because the Democrats realize they have no other real choice. I just don't see that changing.
Reader Comments ( Page 3 of 5)
31. Hillary
Thumbs Down, Liar, Crook, socialism then comes communism.
nickie at 9:56PM on Oct 8th 2007
32. 2. THE CLINTONS LEGACY SPEAKS FOR ITSELF
RECORDS SET
- The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- First president to be held in contempt of court
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad
- First president disbarred from the US Supreme Court and a state court
nickie at 10:12PM on Oct 8th 2007
33. If Hillary DID give $ to babies, it might ACCIDENTALLY fuel a pro life movement towards giving more preborn humans a chance at life.
And THAT (a pro life move) would be TABOO to the CONSISTENTLY pro abortion Democratic party, which is INCREDIBLY FAITHFUL to the "abortion princip". as can be seen by the LARGE number of proposed legislation you can search...to keep abortion legal and easy-to-get even to protecting the "right" of adult abusers to take in their underage pregnant teen girlfriend...I kid you not.
vikingmother at 9:32PM on Oct 9th 2007
34. "But back to my argument. Hillary is not unstoppable because she is so far ahead in the polls. She is far ahead in the polls because the Democrats realize they have no other real choice. I just don't see that changing."
Yesterday, I read where another poll taken in IOWA show her to be way out front. Unfortunately when you read on you find out that the poll involved asking 399 people (that's right 399). Some sampling, what is the number of registered Democrats in Iowa. I hope more than a couple of hundred. People, wake up. The only ones who benefit from polls are those who earning a living "conducting" polls and those who attempt to use those dubious figures to back their run for office. Just remember Harry Truman Vs. Tom Dewey !
JZeeee at 8:57AM on Oct 10th 2007
35. If the Democratic candidates cannot stop her in the Primaries then something is wrong with the men candidates that are running against her.That means a GOP nominee will put her in her place that she should be at,by Bills side as his wife and mother to their child.
Realistic at 1:05AM on Oct 11th 2007
36. Good grief folks! Is anyone out there paying attention to any of the debates... have you listened to the responses from the candidates? Please do that before you spew senseless unfounded garbage rumors and innuendos. The American people need to make their choice for president based on the philosophy that most closely resembles their own.
I was raised and influenced in a Republician home, a Goldwater girl like Hillary! (am truly thankful for my core beliefs and values gained from that upbringing) My voting record is crazy, but I've voted for president based on the individual candidate's appeal, what they have to say and how they present themselves...Goldwater, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Raegan, Raegan, Bush, Clinton, Clinton, NOBODY, Kerry. In all that history, the eight years of Clinton gave me the most sense of well being. I long for the security of that time. I appreciate Bill Clinton's ability to look back and point out where he made mistakes and say what he might have done differently. Sexual dalliances mean little or nothing to me when my concerns are with the personal and financial security of my family and my country. Obviously, a personal private weakness does not affect one's ability to successfully run the United States of America and be respected worldwide as well. Unfortunately, for us, we were sold a bill of goods with the present administration. Bush's only philosophy has been "my way or the highway" ......and his inability to EVER admit error or wrongdoing has paralized this country and diminished our standing worldwide.
My vote, as of today, is with Hillary Clinton. I know who she is.....not perfect, but smart, savvy and in tune with the rest of a world we all have to live in. What I will not do is support the narrow minded, hypocritical, outdated, holier-than-thou philosophy of the current base of the Republican party. In other words, THUMBS-UP TO ANY DEM NOMINATED IN 2008!!!!!! amen
susan at 2:57PM on Oct 11th 2007
37. #36
"Sexual dalliances mean little or nothing to me when my concerns are with the personal and financial security of my family and my country."
I hope this attitude applies equally to your current or future spouse.
JZeeee at 8:03AM on Oct 12th 2007
38. A politician should be required to state what he belive's, what he is for and what he is against.
Then people would know what they are voting for at the poll's. If said politician voted into office divert's from what they said they belived in and was for or against,then they should be prosecuted for deciveng the nation. I for one am tired of politician's telling people what they think they want to hear ,Just so they can win their vote in to office, Then when they get their they trun out to be all togeather different than what they told us.
keepitreal at 5:15PM on Oct 11th 2007
39. Hellary is a loser, watch and see.
Mark Toney at 5:55PM on Oct 13th 2007
40. There is but afire that consumes the wicked they have decieved themselves. they will not see the truth because this hatred feeds their souls .foolish people vote for Hellary see what you get ha ha
Mark Toney at 8:03PM on Oct 11th 2007
41. Hillary is Pro Amnesty for illegal's, she voted to send the troops into Iraq and she is Married to NAFTA Bill.....the greatest duo of selling out the American worker in History. Only when a candidate begins to expose her simple and many failings will her reign at the top of the polls end. Please, if you agree with this tell your friends, A vote for Hillary is a vote to send more good jobs to Mexico and other third world countries while allowing illegals to come into our country and take what is left....Hopefully, Hill and Bill will soon be back in Arkansas.
sal flyer at 12:05AM on Oct 12th 2007
42. What candidate is "fatally flawed" is an eye-of-the-beholder argument. So were Bush and Reagan: they were fatally stupid, and it didnt stop them from being elected. But it is hard to see how Edwards or Obama close the gag. Hillary has run an excellent campaign.
David Scott at 4:57AM on Oct 12th 2007
43. The real lines that are drawn in this country are not Democrat/Republican, they are rich/poor. Until we find and elect a person who makes decisions that hold the dignity and worth of all human life as pivotal, we will continue to make wars for profit while our own citizens cannot even afford health care. I wish I knew who to vote for, but I don't.
helas at 5:59AM on Oct 12th 2007
44. When people keep hearing her change her
mind like most people change clothes it
will eventually make them wonder.
She was for so many things she is now
against, does'nt it make you wonder?
Too wishy washy for me.
William Ehlert at 1:33PM on Oct 12th 2007
45. check out Hillary's new Video
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019&pr=goog-sl
wild bill at 3:49PM on Oct 12th 2007