Again, to Jay's point, the polls right now dictate the chatter, but they hardly give any indication about where we're headed. Let's take a quick look back at the trajectory of the '04 race in Iowa. In late October 2003 - still another four weeks from where we are in this year's race - Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were running neck and neck, with John Kerry a distant third and John Edwards a very distant fourth. The race remained frozen in that position through the beginning of January as shown by an Iowa Poll taken just two weeks before the caucuses. Another Iowa poll taken just days before the vote picks up on the significant movement occurring as people focused on the race. And we all know how the final results looked...That certainly is true, in 2004 things did shift enormously, at least two times on the Democratic side. We had the collapse and rebirth of John Kerry, we had the collapse of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.
But my argument is not based on the idea that Hillary is unassailable because she is so far ahead. Rather she is so far ahead because her challengers are fatally flawed candidates. In other words. She's unstoppable because there is no one running who can stop her.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
But back to my argument. Hillary is not unstoppable because she is so far ahead in the polls. She is far ahead in the polls because the Democrats realize they have no other real choice. I just don't see that changing.
Reader Comments ( Page 4 of 5)
46. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019&pr=goog-sl
wild bill at 4:10PM on Oct 12th 2007
47. Obama will defeat Hilliary in Iowa,New Hamshire and South Carolina and the rest will be history.Edward will defeat Hilliary in Nevada and Colorado so there lies the future of Hilliary.
KaM at 2:40AM on Oct 16th 2007
48. This article is interested in me because its about Hillary Clinton and i want her to win the election. I think Hillary will win because she is the best person for the job. She is the only candidate that combines experience and change, and thats what this country needs. She thinks about the
Rahel Barihe at 11:21PM on Oct 15th 2007
49. why we need some jerk like the CLINTONS for?just look what they did before,the ass Bill Clinton fuckin a young slot,and check it out what they did in ARKANSAS dammm people wake up...
knock at 5:48AM on Oct 17th 2007
50. why we need some jerk like the CLINTONS for?just look what they did before,the ass Bill Clinton fuckin a young slot,and check it out what they did in ARKANSAS dammm people wake up...
knock at 5:40AM on Oct 17th 2007
51. wake up dumbooos if you guys vote for Hilary Clinton we will have a problem for life,yikesssssssssssssssssss
knock at 5:46AM on Oct 17th 2007
52. She'll be done soon and Hilliary can sense it coming.It's all about the Constitution and political history of this nation.There's a lot of ecitement and hype out there but realty will finally caught up with Hilliary and then she realize this isn't the will of the majority of Americans for her to be President.
KaM at 3:45AM on Oct 20th 2007
53. Any time a candidate go to High School to speak and campaign that tells me something about his or her lack of leadership experience.The picture is clear he or she knew that most American adult voters will look at experience and if they see nothing then thats the end for him or her.Students they can manipulate them with nice talks and soft appearances and hoping they will convince their parents to vote for him or her.
KaM at 1:06PM on Oct 26th 2007
54. Remember, Hilliary has decided to stay in the Michigan and Florida primaries, why?, Because the other candidates are mindless robots and have left those primaries to let her have the delegates. The democrat candidates are wounding themselves and letting Hilliary have the nomination by default. This should not surprise anyone, this has been planned for years. I challenge everyone to try to think of anything positive she has done, implemented, completed or co-authored as a Senator, now extend that to a Presidency, unpardonable. She has no one's interest but her own's in mind and would promise the world to attain that goal. Now, people of integrity need to stand together and not allow Hilliary to attain her throne.
Kent at 1:12PM on Oct 23rd 2007
55. Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee>>>
An experience gap? Has Hillary ever run anything? How about a city or a state? Has Hillary ever started a business?
What do our Lefty brothers see as Hillary's vast experience? Is being the most disgraced First Lady in our history the experience needed to be president? Clearly, the lunacy on the Left is abundant.
So, will Hillary have an experience gap when she runs against a former Mayor? Will miss second term have an experience gap when she runs against a long standing US senator, or a govenor?
Clearly, Hillary has an experience gap with every serious republican running for the nomination.
Thomas J Gassett at 2:52PM on Oct 23rd 2007
56. This article is interested in me because its about Hillary Clinton and i want her to win the election. I think Hillary will win because she is the best person for the job.>>>
She aint much of a person at all. She's a political animal with a socialist bent. And if elected she would be the most inexperienced president in our history.
She is the only candidate that combines experience and change, and thats what this country needs. She thinks about the>>
Clue: She has no experience in running anything. And only someone that's been alseep for a decades could think of a clintoon as change.
Thomas J Gassett at 2:58PM on Oct 23rd 2007
57. Hillary has experience? In what....losing papers requested by the FBI, firing travel agents, or quashing bimbo eruptions?
This is a woman who was elected Senator due to voters' sympathy for a wronged wife whose claim to fame was staying with a bird-dogging husband.
Hilary claims she knew nothing about Monica. She's either the stupidest woman in America, or a liar. We don't need either one.
tw111 at 9:04PM on Oct 23rd 2007
58. To even suggest that Hillary can't be stopped is a mindless attempt at propaganda.
(Gee, I wonder who the clown that penned this 'statement' is going to vote for?)
Clue: Bill Clinton hadn't even declared his run for president at this point in the cycle.
Clue:2 The last unstoppable Democrat was How-very-weird Dean, and he was an unknown at this point in the cycle.
Are we to believe that Americans will actually elect the most devisive candiate in our history? (NO candidate with anywhere near her negatives has ever won.)
Clearly, those that chant Hillary is unstoppable suffer serious mental illness. Better look into that!
Thomas J Gassett at 8:20PM on Oct 25th 2007
59. I have found Hillary to be thoughtful, cool, calm collected and intelligent. She also represents most of the views I value and she has my vote.
OLO at 10:51PM on Oct 25th 2007
60. watch the stan lee video..it's all you need to knwo about Hillary. I guess if you are mad about the war, you should vote to have hugely higher taxes for everyone. Did you know that the top 5% pays 60% of all taxes? Gullible and naive dems don't know that
al brooks at 11:55PM on Oct 25th 2007