Again, to Jay's point, the polls right now dictate the chatter, but they hardly give any indication about where we're headed. Let's take a quick look back at the trajectory of the '04 race in Iowa. In late October 2003 - still another four weeks from where we are in this year's race - Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were running neck and neck, with John Kerry a distant third and John Edwards a very distant fourth. The race remained frozen in that position through the beginning of January as shown by an Iowa Poll taken just two weeks before the caucuses. Another Iowa poll taken just days before the vote picks up on the significant movement occurring as people focused on the race. And we all know how the final results looked...That certainly is true, in 2004 things did shift enormously, at least two times on the Democratic side. We had the collapse and rebirth of John Kerry, we had the collapse of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.
But my argument is not based on the idea that Hillary is unassailable because she is so far ahead. Rather she is so far ahead because her challengers are fatally flawed candidates. In other words. She's unstoppable because there is no one running who can stop her.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
Both Edwards and Obama have a huge experience gap with the potential Republican nominee. They both have gotten where they are through good messaging and hard work. I don't want to shortchange that, but it can only get you so far. Earlier this year I speculated that Richardson might rally the anti-Hillary vote. But he is just too goofy, to put it nicely. Whatever it is that defines being "presidential" Richardson does not have, not even an ounce. Which is too bad for the Democrats, but that's another story.
But back to my argument. Hillary is not unstoppable because she is so far ahead in the polls. She is far ahead in the polls because the Democrats realize they have no other real choice. I just don't see that changing.
Reader Comments ( Page 5 of 5)
61.
To tell the truth, the thought of Hillary scares me.
Stephen J Mandich at 5:18PM on Oct 27th 2007
62. obama is a muslim terroist hillary is a lying lunitic and american are smarter than the news media gives us credit
rob c g at 12:20AM on Oct 29th 2007
63. WHAT A BIMBO!!!
Gunnar at 4:54PM on Oct 31st 2007
64. It's doom or gloom for Hilliary within the next couple of weeks.Last night Democratic debate begins to show some crack on Hilliary's candidacy.The case about her experience doesn't sit well with the base for sure.Another the immigration issue that one bleed her throughout the night.
KaM at 1:47AM on Nov 3rd 2007
65. if Hillary wasnt BILL CLINTON'S WIFE, would she be running for President? Of course not! She uses him to campaign for her, and the applause and cheering is for HIM, not her! A lot of democrats want BILL clinton back, and I guess they think she's the next best thing! EXPERIENCE? What experience? Being a Senator from New York, another position she got by being Bill Clinton's wife? Barack Obama has just as much "experience" as she does - and at least he's running on his own, not as a reflection of someone else!
Look at Mondale and Dukakis, who won the democratic nomination and LOST the election - chances are she'll do the same!
And Ive heard Ralph Nader is planning to run - that will wreck her for sure!
ray at 3:47PM on Nov 2nd 2007
66. Just thought I would share this information for anyone who wants to support Obama without going broke. I bought a bunch of stuff from http://www.obamacampus.com for a rally that we had at my school and I just wanted to recommend it because it's inexspensive, fast and I know people don't have a lot of money to spend on bumper stickers and T shirts. I think we should be able to support Obama without going broke!
Stephanie at 2:51PM on Nov 5th 2007
67. Does Hillary drink coffee?
You can win a new Senseo Coffee Machine here!
http://www.mycreditfriend.com
Troy at 9:33PM on Nov 5th 2007
68. If H. Clinton gets ahold of health care, maybe she will straighten out some problems.
but ULTIMATELY Ms. Clinton would be BAD for HEALTH CARE as she does NOT seem to value the overall Human Species.
As can be seen with the EXHORBITANT administrative costs for every participant in the foster care system, a NATIONAL health care system will most likely follow suit and WASTE lots of money on layers and layers of administration.
And then with a budget crunch - what to cut? You guessed it.
*ration health care (like England)
*actively starve some disabled
*push more abortion choices
*give DISCOUNTS to girls women who donate their embryos/fetuses for embryonic research
*push ASSIsTED SUICIDE to get more costly patients off the books
An accountants dream; a human being's NIGHTMARE universe...
save the human species at 6:53AM on Nov 7th 2007
69. Hillary offers me a sandwich...
Hillary's headin' out on the campaign trail.
In her recent e-mail, she notes,
Dear Julian,
You're my secret weapon.
All the other campaigns are busy talking about me. But with your support, I'm staying focused on what's important in this race. I never forget what we're working for when I'm out on the campaign trail. That's why I'd like one of you to join me for a day.
Ah, Hill, there's only "one" of me - to my knowledge!
She goes on to ask,
"Will you help me win these first few primaries and caucuses by contributing today? You could join me out on the campaign trail. We'll take a few minutes to grab a sandwich and talk."
Yup, her handlers are inviting voters like me to drop by the stumpin' grounds to grab a sandwich when she alights in our Havens, Towns, big City dins - wherever!
Ham & cheese on rye, with a little Grey Poupon, please!
You know, the mustard the impeccably-dressed driver in the Rolls craves on a quick pass in the rarefied air of an enclave, somewhat beyond my reach. (video below)
Of course, you're goin' to have to cough up some dough for the privilege of dining alfresco with Hillary and her clan.
The recent gala on her 60th Birthday Bash taught us one Noble truth...if you want to mingle with the high and mighty, jockey for lobbying power - even toss a kiss from afar - you'll have to pay through the nose.
No lookie-loo's please, or photo ops on the house...just ask Hill.
In a recent e-mail invite, Clinton's team noted that for $15.00 (just click on the link to pay by debit, credit card, or pay pal) I'll get to chow down on a sandwich with her and have a chat - yeah, talk is not cheap, not in Hillary's camp.
Well now, should I spring the bucks for the snack with Hillary Clinton, or upload my photo for inclusion on Edwards' "mosaic"? (Post, John Edwards "Facebook"; 11/07/07)
I mean, times are tough - just how far will my budget stretch?
Maybe I should wait to see what Obama has to offer...
With all these clever, money-making maneuvers underfoot, some sweet slick offer should be heading out from his camp, soon.
I mean, the man is quick on the uptake, isn't he?
Julian
www.ijulian.blogspot.com
Julian Ayrs at 8:27PM on Nov 13th 2007
70. Joe Biden should get it. Period. Only Democratic candidate with a hope of winning the general election.
If you want a hilarious look on the current situation, watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnN8IlMSgyg
J. Fields at 6:47AM on Nov 18th 2007
71. I just don't trust Hillary Clinton. She is going to ruin in democrat Party. Why does she get all the media coverage when she never answers the questions that she is asked? My family has always voted deomcrat, but it is just awful how democrats treat their own people. By attacking Obama the way, she did, Hillary demonstrates that she will do anything to get elected. How is it that all the people how were to testify against the Clintons illegal activities while they were in the presidency mysteriously died or said to have commited suicide within an 18 month period? I believe that ALL Americans should be aware of the CLINTON CHRONICALS OF CORRUPTION. We just can't trust her and the sort of socialist country she wants America to become to turn into. No wonder Oprah is voting for Obama.
Now the Clintons are sending negative press releases against Oprah Winfrey. How dare the Clintons attack the PRIVATE Citizens of AMERICA! Watch OUT Hillary ... Oprah can flex MORE political muscle than you. Or will you seek to physically silence her as you did those who were to testify against you in court?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJK84-VFfRU
prffsrx at 10:49AM on Nov 23rd 2007
72. I am not sure about Hillary’s chances right now, I think Oprah’s support for Obama really hurt her it bit strongly into her women support and consolidated all blacks for Obama. I think one of the best trackers for elections is the gambling line as people will only put money on what they think will win, I have watched the line on Clinton drop steadily for the past weeks since Oprah began campaigning for Obama lines are at wagerweb.com Politics Betting I prefer following these lines to polls as I feel they are just as accurate if not more
JUstin at 1:14PM on Dec 15th 2007
73. I am not sure about Hillary’s chances right now, I think Oprah’s support for Obama really hurt her it bit strongly into her women support and consolidated all blacks for Obama. I think one of the best trackers for elections is the gambling line as people will only put money on what they think will win, I have watched the line on Clinton drop steadily for the past weeks since Oprah began campaigning for Obama lines are at wagerweb.com Politics Betting I prefer following these lines to polls as I feel they are just as accurate if not more
JUstin at 12:59PM on Dec 15th 2007
74. I am not sure about Hillary’s chances right now, I think Oprah’s support for Obama really hurt her it bit strongly into her women support and consolidated all blacks for Obama. I think one of the best trackers for elections is the gambling line as people will only put money on what they think will win, I have watched the line on Clinton drop steadily for the past weeks since Oprah began campaigning for Obama lines are at wagerweb.com Politics Betting I prefer following these lines to polls as I feel they are just as accurate if not more
JUstin at 1:13PM on Dec 15th 2007
75. As a believer in God and his word I challenge those Pollster who seem to have a solid belief that Hilliary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.Republican Pollster Frank Luntz said this on CZPAN TV Channel today December 25th 2007.I say this to Frank Luntz and those who thinks this is the truth,Hilliary will not be this Nation under Gods' President.There will never be a woman elect to the Office of President of this God given land to his Freedom Loving Childrens never.You can say anything,measure any languages from candidates or study politics but none will change the Author(Gods)view of the Constitution and who he will chose by the power of his Spirit through the people of his choicest Land to be the next President of this great Nation under God.Gods'way and Gods' purpose is not mans' way nor purpose,just as he created a man and a woman each with their earthly purpose and responsibilities so is he going to elect the next Leader of his people in this his choicest Land on Earth.So for the meantime search the word of God in his Holy Bible and pray about its' real intrepretation and its'real meaning to us as people of the land.
True Truth at 3:18AM on Dec 26th 2007