GOP Fundraising Preview

The always excellent Marc Abinder brings us a preview of the October fundraising numbers. This of course will have tremendous implications for the direction of the GOP primary.
Romney has loaned himself nearly $9M, which, when subtracted from his $12M cash-on-hand, would suggest that receipts in have not kept pace with disbursements, generally, which have totaled more than $32M. Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign's budget intact. They give a range of $10M to $12M for individual contributions in the third quarter.

John McCain will raise between $4 and $5M; Fred Thompson will probably raise around $6M.

If this is true that Fred Thompson is barely ahead of John McCain in the fundraising department, it certainly does not bode well for Team Thompson. Even considering that Thompson has not revved up the engine throughout the third quarter, he should have been able to reach out and tap the primary network of contributors for a big initial flush of cash. Either his network isn't very big, or the enthusiasm with which his campaign has been received will receive a cold shower.


Add this to the common wisdom that Fred is a little lazy and this may blow up into a serious obstacle for the campaign. It's not even about the money, it's the perception of being a inflatable candidate: If he goes up like a balloon, he may be easy to pop.

This doesn't mean anything to John McCain of course, in practicality, he's still over, even if he's raised a couple more million that I expected. But for Romney and Giuliani, it's a sigh of relief if they can pile up a huge cash advantage. They can then use that if needed to buy marketing to counter a grassroots Fred effort. Think Kerry vs. Dean in 2004 and you got it.

The Democratic fundraising preview can be summed up like this: Hillary has raised gobs of money and has more than enough not only to fend off her challengers, but has long since started collecting money for the general election.

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