Sen. John Sunnunu, R-N.H., might as well pack his bags. He can barely get a 43% approval rating and now former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is going to run for his seat. From an e-mail sent to the press

because we have major problems facing this country, and there is an urgent need for real change in Washington," Shaheen said. "We've proven in New Hampshire that we can work together to get things done. I want to take that common-sense approach to Washington and help get this country moving in the right direction."

She will make an announcement Sunday. Just by entering the race preliminary polls show her leading the incumbent. That doesn't happen often. Meanwhile Sen. Ted Stevens, he of the bridge to nowhere, is now facing the problem of what happens when one accepts free help. According to the guy who did the bribe (CEO, pipeline company)

"I gave Ted some old furniture," Allen said. "I don't think there was a lot of material. There was some labor."

Nothing to see here. Move on, move on. Except for this:

The workers were Veco employees, probably one to four at a time, Allen said. He said the work on the home lasted for "probably a couple of months." Later, he said it might have been as much as six months. The remodeling work in summer and fall 2000 more than doubled the size of the house, a four-bedroom structure that is Stevens' official residence in Alaska.

Gosh, we just threw some old furniture around and didn't do much besides DOUBLE the size of his house. Maybe Sen. Ted Stevens could find that bridge and keep driving.

The Republicans once had it all. They controlled all three branches of the government. The result has been a mess that will take years to fix. The dollar has plunged versus the Euro. We are mired in a war in Iraq in which there is no easy solution. The real estate industry is collapsing. But this story is not about the Republican failures.

Virginia Republican, Senator John Warner is retiring. A class act who served his country well. He spoke his mind and suggested what was best for his country. The Rasmussen poll is showing that his namesake, former Democratic Governor, Mark Warner is 20% ahead of his closest competitor if he should run for the Senate seat being vacated by John Warner.

This will be just another seat being lost by the Republicans. A popular candidate, such as Mark Warner, will only help the Democratic candidate for President capture the electoral votes of Virginia.

2008 is shaping up to be a very bad year for the Republicans but President Bush will retire as the undefeated champion who wrecked his party.

Mark Warner, the popular recent Governor of Virginia appears set to replace John Warner (no relation) who has announced his retirement. Having lived in Virginia during his predecessor (Gilmore) and during Warner's term, it's no surprise the early polls show a blow-out.

Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines) Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54 Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57. It's not even close.

The pending announcement makes it pretty clear:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington. Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor. One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate. "I'd be surprised if he didn't run for the Senate," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

This coupled with Hagel retiring in Nebraska (with Bob Kerrey set to run) Coleman (MN), Sunnunu (NH) (with Sheehan maybe getting in) all below 40% in their favorables and Collins (ME) facing a strong challenge from Rep. Tom Allen, the picture starts to form. A 4-8 vote swing in the senate would be very significant. It's early but the betting line forms to the left.

Senator Chuck Hagel has called it a career. The AP reports that the senator from Nebraska has announced that he will not seek re-election in '08. Now, while such an announcement usually gets Republican voters somewhat worried about having to work harder to defend the seat, there is very little lamenting in conservative circles regarding Hagel's departure. To put it bluntly, many conservatives are happy to see him go as Hagel has hardly been a favorite of the conservative base.

Hagel's problems with the base centered on his pro illegal immigration amnesty stance and his very public anti-Iraq war posturing. In fact, the base was so annoyed at Hagel there were calls on talk radio and on the internet for a primary challenger. This led to the bizarre rumors that Hagel (acting out of spite if a primary challenger was selected) would act as VP to NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg's presidential bid on a third party ticket for the White House. Of course, these rumors were never validated although there were some credible rumors that Hagel would seek the Republican nomination for president, but to say such a win would be a long shot would be the understatement of the century.

Overall this is more bad news for the GOP strategy of taking back the Senate. Chuck Hagel is retiring, and will not run for the presidency either (although that was always a long shot).

This leaves yet another open seat in a deep red state in the West. Normally conventional wisdom says that these seats are locks for Republican candidates, but the election last year of Jon Tester in Montana proved that Democrats can win these seats with the right candidate.

Last week Larry Craig announced his resignation, leaving an open seat in Idaho and earlier this year, the untimely death of Craig Thomas left an open seat in Wyoming. But Democrats may find this latest open battle in Nebraska may be the easiest to pickup. The article above reports that former senator Bob Kerrey has voiced his interest in running again and would be a formidable candidate.

For the Republicans, chances of taking back the Senate are dimming, forcing the party to win or die with the presidency.

It would seem that the new GOP strategy when it comes to party corruption centers on issuing a swift public condemnation of the guilty (or perceived guilty) individual followed by a swift ouster of the embattled colleague. Of course, this was the way it played it in regards to the action taken against Senator Larry Craig and to a great extent this swift action was a preventive measure to avoid the 2006 calamity.

According to the Politico, while the furor and outrage over the Mark Foley incident definitely played a role in members of the conservative base sitting home, there were other corruption scandals that contributed to massive GOP losses. In Ohio, Rep. Bob Ney's felony conviction greatly damaged the party as did the Rep. Duke Cunningham corruption scandal and criminal conviction in California. And who could forget the ouster of Tom Delay?

For the GOP, it is a smart move to take a zero tolerance policy towards party corruption. Unless the GOP remains proactive in this area and establishes that such behavior will not be tolerated and must stop, the party will be perpetually labeled the party of corruption and will suffer greatly because of it. Or, more accurately, it will continue to suffer greatly.

Senator Larry Craig of Idaho has made the decision to resign his position and the effective date of resignation will be September 30th.

Whether it is a case of a corrupt politician getting what he deserved or the case of a naïve politician trying to do what was best under a stressful situation, the end result was going to be the same no matter what. Craig's career was, for all intents and purposes, over the moment he was booked for actions in a Minneapolis airport bathroom that an undercover police officer deemed lewd behavior.

According to The Politico, Craig's future in the Senate was further doomed when President Bush made the decision not to provide any support to the embattled senator and, to make matters worse, top GOP senators such as Norm Coleman, Mitch McConnell and John McCain all publicly chastised him. With such obvious lack of support, it became clear that Craig needed to resign and he did just that. Instead of becoming the longest "reigning" senator from the state of Idaho, Craig will now go down in the history books as the senator from Idaho who resigned from a sex scandal that never included any actual sex. His replacement to be named by the governor is expected to be Lt. Gov. Jim Risch.

Looks like the GOP will have two more holes to plug in its leaky ship in '08. Larry Craig's resignation seems imminent, as pressure mounts from within his party. And now longtime Virgina senator John Warner has announced he won't be seeking reelection next year.

``I'm quietly going to step aside and clear the way for others,'' Warner, 80, said at a press conference in Charlottesville. ``I've done my best.'' ...

Replacing Warner next year will set off a heated battle as Republicans seek to overcome the Democrats' 51-49 majority control of the Senate.

Among the names already being bandied about to run for Warner's seat are former governor James Gilmore and Representative Tom Davis on the Republican side. The Dems may run former governor Mark Warner.

Virginia was a battleground in '06, with underdog Dem. Jim Webb coming from behind to beat the increasingly clueless George Allen, and now it's shaping up to be just as crucial next November.

The Lousiana GOP is reporting a huge pickup for 2008. They have convinced John Kennedy to switch parties. The big news is that he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat now held by David Vitter in 2004. The speculation is that he will be gunning for Mary Landrieu in 2008.

Senator Landrieu barely won her seat in 2002 and since then the largest part of her voting base in New Orleans has disappeared due to acts of God. She's a long shot, but up to this point, the LA GOP has not recruited a good challenger for her. John Kennedy could be the guy. From Nola.com:

In an email message to supporters, Kennedy cited "certain fixed, bedrock principles" that he believes are more in line with the Republican Party than the Democrats, and said GOP officials have been more responsive to his proposals in recent years.

"For the past several years, it has increasingly been the case that those public servants who have embraced my ideas and my philosophy of trying new approaches are primarily Republicans," Kennedy wrote.

2008 is shaping up to be a horrible year for the Republicans Senate Committee, they must win in Louisiana to make up for losses elsewhere.

Senator Larry Craig was arrested in June for lewd conduct in a Minnesota airport mens room. I'm afraid it's about as bad as it sounds. Roll Call has it:

Craig's arrest occurred just after noon on June 11 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. On Aug. 8, he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in the Hennepin County District Court. He paid more than $500 in fines and fees, and a 10-day jail sentence was stayed. He also was given one year of probation with the court that began on Aug. 8.

A spokesman for Craig described the incident as a "he said/he said misunderstanding," and said the office would release a fuller statement later Monday afternoon.

After he was arrested, Craig, who is married, was taken to the Airport Police Operations Center to be interviewed about the lewd conduct incident, according to the police report. At one point during the interview, Craig handed the plainclothes sergeant who arrested him a business card that identified him as a U.S. Senator and said, "What do you think about that?" the report states.

Well, if I was the policeman, I'd be saying, "I think you're in deep, deep trouble." Which of course the senator now is.

Hugh Hewitt is calling for Craig's resignation and let me second that. There's room enough in the Senate for good men who do not pull this kind of crap. Let's find one of those. Maybe you can pull this off if you are a Democrat. Republicans, not so much.

Elections are volatile things. Sometimes things happen: a candidate steps in it (so to speak) and some incident gets huge publicity and a 10 point leads evaporates and the other person wins. That's why campaign staffs tend to play it safe and not expose their candidate to reporters or other potential off the cuff remarks. Minimize the opportunity for damage.

At this stage, campaigns pay close attention to the favorable/unfavorable ratings of the incumbent. Generally speaking, favorables below 50 percent means an incumbent should be challenged and below 40-43%, they are in trouble. So, how are things going out there? From the Washington Post:

In the seven key Senate seats, the average reelect number for the GOP incumbents was 37 percent, with just 13 percent saying they would "definitely" vote to reelect the incumbent. Greenberg referred to those results as "go get your shotgun numbers."

If you're a Republican candidate, it can always get worse this cycle. The preferred candidate of Iowa Republicans is Other/Undecided at 31%. Mitt Romney currently has 26%, Rudy Giuliani next. And in fourth place? Barack Obama. Apparently, he has crossover appeal in conservative Iowa. His message of stopping the partisan war and moving forward is generating support among Republicans.

Two recent stories from Chris Cillizza spell trouble for Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman. First off, in the second quarter of 2008, funnyman and former collegiate wrestler Al Franken outraised Coleman by $400,000. With his name recognition and deep pockets it appears certain that Franken will be the Democratic challenger for Coleman's seat.

Second, as the Senate prepares to debate a new bill proposing the withdrawal of our soldiers from Iraq, Coleman, along with three other GOP senators, will find himself the subject of a spate of unflattering ads sponsored by the DSCC. All four of the senators -- Susan Collins, John Sununu, Mich McConnell and Coleman -- are up for re-election, and considered vulnerable on this issue. Then again, what politician who has stood in lock-step with the president all this time is not vulnerable considering that new surveys suggest that 70% of Americans now want a pullout by April.

Few people are probably aware of the fact that John Kerry has a primary challenger for his U.S. Senate seat. Ed O'Reilly, a lawyer hailing from Gloucester, Mass., launched his bid to oust Kerry in May. His campaign largely targets Kerry's vote in favor of the war in Iraq.

Local media has essentially predicted that O'Reilly has a snowball's chance in hell of defeat Kerry, but recent polls from a couple months ago did suggest that Kerry is in fact vulnerable.

A 7News-Suffolk poll from this past April said that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at Kerry's Senate seat. Only 37 percent say he should run again.

Could Kerry be ousted in the primaries? It could happen.

The Politico is reporting as of noon that Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, has appointed Republican state Senator John Barrasso to be the next U.S. Senator from Wyoming, effective immediately. He replaces Senator Craig Thomas, who died a few weeks ago from leukemia.

Barrasso has already announced that he will run in the special election in 2008 to fill the remainder of Thomas' term.

Freudenthal refused to comment on why he chose Barrasso, an orthopedic doctor, to replace Thomas. My bet is the fact that Barrasso is strongly pro-abortion might have had something to do with it.

A new 7News-Suffolk poll says that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at John Kerry's Senate seat. Only 37 percent say he should run again.

This is clearly bad news for Kerry, and, according the Boston Herald's Wayne Woodlief, "very good news for any well-heeled Republican who might try a run against Long Jawn. Or even for somebody who isn't rich but is [...] 'an aggressive, strong politician' who could see the national GOP open its coffers if Kerry's numbers stay that low. Especially with control of the Senate at stake."

Sure, this offers a very small glimmer of hope for the Massachusetts Republican Party. But, Kerry's vulnerability may also inspire some Massachusetts congressmen with large campaign coffers to take Kerry out in the primaries. Now, if Kerry survives the primaries and the Mass GOP offers a viable candidate to oppose him, the seat could very well become competitive... certainly the most competitive race for Kerry in quite some time.