In this last election, the GOP took a beating in New England, losing four house seats and Lincoln Chaffee's Senate seat in Rhode Island. The only Republican House seat left in New England is held by Chris Shays, a man devoted to moderate values. Ever since 1992, every New England state has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate, with the exception of New Hampshire in 2000. Part of it is religion:

As long as the national Republican Party continues to emphasize such stands as opposing legal abortion, embryonic stem-cell research and gay rights, New Englanders are not very likely to be attracted to the GOP, experts say. And in a region with the smallest number of evangelical Christians in the United States, according to public opinion surveys, few are drawn to Republican politics through religion.

"It is not your father or grandfather's Republican Party," says Howard Reiter, chairman of the political science department at the University of Connecticut. ``I've long suspected that this has a lot to do with religion. Religion just means something different in the Northeast and New England than it does in some other parts of the country."

Education also plays a role. New Englanders generally are more educated than those in other parts of the country, making them more likely to support liberal causes like stem cell research and gay rights. Whatever the reason, the GOP doesn't seem too concerned about making headway in this area. Republican representatives from New England like Rob Simmons and Chris Shays had often been criticized by Republicans for adopting liberal or moderate positions. Instead, Republicans and the Republican Party need to accept that, for now, Republicans will need to be moderate to succeed here. Those with true conservative issues like opposition to abortion and gay marriage are unlikely to be elected by the liberal electorate. Only then will blue New England turn purple.

As Rep. Christopher Shays begins to get over the shock of being almost the only Republican in a close race to win, the fate of one of his Connecticut colleagues is still undecided. Rep. Rob Simmons is currently down in his challenge with Democrat Joe Courtney by 167 votes. Twelve term incumbent Republican Rep. Nancy Johnson lost her re-election bid to a newcomer, and while Republican governor Jodi Rell was re-elected, none of the Republican underticket will be joining her. The Connecticut House now has a veto-proof majority. So what happened to Connecticut Republicans?

Rep. Shays was able to win because he isn't really considered a Republican, more of an independent maverick like John McCain. Simmons, typically considered more in-step with his party, now mired in a drawn-out recount process, is being abandoned by the governor. Rell apparently hasn't even contacted Rep. Simmons to offer support or encouragement. Gov. Rell does have a reputation for only being interested in her own political survival, which might be said to be a reflection on the Connecticut Republican party as a whole. If the party had been more cohesive, then "Republican in Connecticut" might have actually stood a chance in this past election. Instead, it was a massacre, with only politicians like Shays, often derided as Republican in Name Only (RINO), winning.

If Rep. Chris Shays wasn't the most vulnerable Republican in Congress, he was certainly one of them. He represents a liberal district, had become closely linked to the Iraq War, and was running against a woman whom he had only narrowly beaten in 2004. He has now visited Iraq a total of fourteen times, often coming back extolling the progress of Iraq. Now, with Iraq's progress stagnating and frustrated Americans calling for change, he seemed like the perfect candidate for the Democrats to beat. But they didn't.

Granted, the race was extremely tight, and Shays edged out challenger Diane Farrell with only 51% of the vote to her 48%. But he didn't lose. Rep. Nancy Johnson, representing Connecticut's Fifth District, was running for her thirteen term. If any Republican was thought to be invincible, it was her. But she lost, receiving only 45% of the vote. Rep. Simmons, representing Connecticut's Second District, seems to have lost a bitterly contested race to Democratic challenger Joe Courtney. Though no winner has officially been announced, Courtney is ahead by 200 votes. Of the three Republican congressman in Connecticut, Shays was thought to be the most likely to lose. What happened?

Rep. Chris Shays is in one of the tightest races in the country, and has been polling evenly with challenger Diane Farrell. He has willingly accepted help from most prominent Republicans, with the exception of President Bush.

Recently John McCain came up to stump for Shays. Few Republicans are as popular as McCain, and he shares many political positions with Shays, so it was natural for him to visit Shays. McCain pledged to help fix Congress with Shays' help.

I love McCain, and I think he is one of the best politicians in America, an experienced politician who is willing to be honest. Most people, including myself, think he will be running in 2008 for president. Indeed, his staff has already started laying the framework for a run, forming committees and organizing support. McCain has been traveling around the country to campaign with other Republicans. But, aside from wanting to help his party, I get the impression he is trying to jump-start his presidential campaign, especially with visits to states like New Hampshire. Nothing is inherently wrong with that- Obama is doing the same thing with his book. However, as we draw closer to Election Day, I just hope all Republicans are focused completely on the 2006 elections, and not abandoning them in hopes of winning in 2008.

Rep. Shays' poll numbers have slowly been sinking. Last month, Shays was consistently ahead. A poll released last week has Shays and Farrell tied. A new poll, sponsored by the "Journal Inquirer" and "The Day," found Farrell leading 47 to 43, with the rest undecided. The pollster, Dell Ali, interpreted the results:

"The other question here is why the challenger hasn't achieved the 50 percent mark. I think voters in this district generally like Chris Shays, they think he's never been an ideologue. While I wouldn't call him a maverick, he's certainly not a cultural conservative by any stretch, and a lot of his conservative credentials have been called into question by people on the right. This is a district where people like John Kerry have done very well. They like Chris Shays, and he does reflect their views for the most part, but this war is the albatross around his neck right now. The good news is that the results are within the margin of error, and while this is an incumbent who is under 50 percent and losing, the fact that his challenger hasn't achieved 50 percent shows that the voters don't quite think the sale has been made."

The public and political analysts have been following this race closely for many months, and now the race seems to clearly be trending to Farrell. This poll is far from conclusive, as the results are within the margin of error and ten percent are still undecided. Shays has had many tight races in the past, and is a political survivor. But, this year, national trends may just get the best of him. It would be a shame to vote out such an independent voice in Congress, but if voters truly want a partisan politician, Farrell is the better candidate.

This isn't something you see much in polls. Often races are close, but it is very rare for candidates to poll exactly evenly. But that is what happened in the most recent Hartford Courant poll, which found both Connecticut Rep. Shays and Democratic challenger Diane Farrell with 43%. This is bad news for Shays, who had typically maintained a slight lead in prior polls. One reason for the change is that the situation in Iraq hasn't improved much in recent months, and Shays had strongly supported the war. Now, he is trying to distance himself from the President and the war, but it may be too late. Two-thirds of the voters who considered the war to be the top issue supported Farrell.

Farrell is not being supported because people believe she will be a better politician. Instead, many people are dissatisfied with the Republican Congress, and want to vote out Republican incumbents. Shays could fall victim to the national trend. If he manages to keep the race focused on the local level, and have voters ignore Republicans like President Bush, former Rep. Foley, and others, he would win. I hope he can, but with only a couple of weeks left, he doesn't have much time.

Rep. Chris Shays and his opponent, Diane Farrell, have finally finished their debates, all eleven of them. The race has always been tight and it has hardly changed even after the debates. Neither one scored a knockout blow. Shays did do a great job of differentiating himself from Farrell:

"If Diane Farrell wins, she may still be in the minority, and then you'll have a member with no clout and no experience," Shays said at the Norwalk Inn & Conference Center during the debate, which was organized by the Greater Norwalk Chamber of Commerce. "You've heard her describe problems and offer a lot of criticism, but have you heard her offer any real solutions?...If she's on the transportation committee, she will be able to decide how much money goes around to all the districts. But if she were a state legislator, she'd be able to decide how that money was spent. I would suggest that if she's interested in transportation, she should be a state legislator." Hartford Courant

The polls on the race have been all over the map, one with Farrell leading by five points, one with Shays up by seven. It's clear that it could go either way. Shays' biggest goal right now is to try and make voters ignore the R for Republican after his name. He has distanced himself from Bush, criticized Republican leadership, and even said that Republicans don't deserve to keep the majority in Congress. It's a sad reflection on Connecticut that the Republicans have to be moderate or even liberal to get elected. In the case of Sen. Lieberman, even being a Democrat wasn't enough, as Democratic voters instead opted for the more liberal Lamont. However, even Shays, despite his disloyalty to his own party, is a far better congressman than the alternative, Farrell, who claimed that America has "aided and abetted al-Qaida and terrorists." We need to make sure we have leaders who can help guide American through the War on Terrorism and the Iraq War, and Farrell doesn't even have her sides right.

Shays Invokes Chappaquiddick

This is NOT about the person Mark Foley -- homosexual transmuted into a alcohol soused Internet stalker. It's NOT about Gary Hart. Or Wild Bill Clinton. And it's certainly NOT about Sen. Ted Kennedy, contrary to GOP Rep. Christopher Shays' malicious miscast of Kennedy's tragedy at Chappaquiddick.

It's about this: Shays is facing the loss of his congressional seat to Democrat Diane Farrell.

As Republican Rep. Christopher Shays notices his party's ship-of-state taking on water as it drifts towards port (the port of Nov. 7th) he has reached a point of panic. His Democratic opponent, Diane Farrell, is reaching more and more voters in their Connecticut congressional district. His party is reeling from the cover-up scandal involving Speaker Hastert.

So Shays has abandoned the issues of 2006. Shamelessly he has reached back for the old reliable trick: Oh, yeah? Well what about Chappaquiddick...? The neo-con approach to inspiring the electorate.

Another pivotal House race is being fought by another desperate Republican in the 13th district in Florida. Vern Buchanan has, to date, stuffed well over $2 million of his own dollars into his quest to go to Washington. The voters in this overwhelmingly red district aren't buying his negative spiel though. Twice these voters have elected Katherine Harris to Congress yet they find Buchanan to be just a bit over the top.

See the latest poll numbers on the Florida race, after the jump.

If you're a voter in Connecticut and still haven't made up your mind about the House race there, Chris Shays would like to talk to you. A new UCONN poll has the long-serving Republican with a slight lead, 44 to 40 percent, over Dem challenger Diane Farrell. But the key figure is the undecideds: a whopping 16 percent say they're not sure yet which way they'll swing. Monika McDermott, who directed the poll for two CT papers, says it could be an ominous sign for the Shays campaign:

"Given Shays' tenure in office and the fact Farrell ran against him last time, we wouldn't expect to find that much uncertainty."

This was supposed to be one of the GOP's "safe" races. If the Republicans have to sweat Shays' seat, it could be a long month for them indeed.