The always excellent Marc Abinder brings us a preview of the October fundraising numbers. This of course will have tremendous implications for the direction of the GOP primary.

Romney has loaned himself nearly $9M, which, when subtracted from his $12M cash-on-hand, would suggest that receipts in have not kept pace with disbursements, generally, which have totaled more than $32M. Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign's budget intact. They give a range of $10M to $12M for individual contributions in the third quarter.

John McCain will raise between $4 and $5M; Fred Thompson will probably raise around $6M.

If this is true that Fred Thompson is barely ahead of John McCain in the fundraising department, it certainly does not bode well for Team Thompson. Even considering that Thompson has not revved up the engine throughout the third quarter, he should have been able to reach out and tap the primary network of contributors for a big initial flush of cash. Either his network isn't very big, or the enthusiasm with which his campaign has been received will receive a cold shower.

James Dobson does not speak for the religious right, says another card-carrying member:

Former Republican presidential candidate Gary Bauer contends that conservative Christians should seriously consider supporting Thompson if they want to avoid a "nightmare scenario" where they are forced to choose between two pro-abortion, pro-gay rights candidates – Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

"He (Thompson)'s obviously against same-sex marriage. He doesn't support quite the same constitutional amendment that some of the others of us do, but he's been talking with us about it, and has been moving closer and closer on the amendment," said Bauer, who is president of American Values, according to OneNewsNow.

"So I hope that we can, as a movement, be very wise about this, and not savage candidates that we may very well have to support in 2008 if they're running against Hillary Clinton."

As I suspected, Fred Thompson has not suffered at all from Dobson's attack, and indeed the collective blogosphere opinion was to think even more highly of Thompson. And with this latest defense it appears that Thompson can get the support of both the religious right and the libertarian elements of the GOP. It's the best of both worlds!

Hey, that's good enough for me.

I've been fervent in my posts about the uneasiness I feel when GOP candidates act as if they have to cozy up to religious folk. President Bush did it with Jerry Falwell and John McCain more recently is doing it with Southern Baptists. Republican candidates place an undeserved prestige on gaining the backing of people such as James Dobson and it doesn't gain them the support they would hope for. In fact, it may turn off conservative Democrats and cost them more votes then it gains.

Think about it, who will Dobson support as if it really matters? He won't support Giuliani so that leaves who, Sam Brownback or Mike Huckabee? He definitely won't support Mitt Romney. Essentially, Dobson has been neutralized and that means his power has dissipated. That can only be good for the party as we've seen those who preach have not always been the most godly of people anyway. I put Dobson on a par with other partisan groups who should have their power usurped such as MoveOn and NOW.

As a Neocon, I am a moderate on most social issues, the church is not supposed to play as large a part as the GOP has placed on it in recent years. For those who have made Neocon a curse, do a little research and see that most Neocons were liberals who changed affiliation because they think that democracy is the cornerstone to changing the world and despots and dictators are evil and should be exiled or forced out by whatever means necessary. That's a much-abridged description but take some time to look up what we think.

Dobson and his ideological brethren are fading and will continue to do so. The nation needs a leader who is not praised by those of Dobson's ilk and who will lead based on good moral tenets--whether religion-inspired or not. Let Dobson support Sam Brownback and I'll support Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson.

The AP snagged this very interesting e-mail:

"Isn't Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won't talk at all about what he believes, and can't speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson wrote.

"He has no passion, no zeal, and no apparent 'want to.' And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!"

This should cause no great consternation in the Fred Thompson camp. The religious right folks are rallying around Mike Huckabee, but so far the Arkansas governor has not broken out of the second tier. If he does so, then the Dobson thing may matter. But for Thompson, the fact that he does in fact look like Ronald Reagan when you stand him next to John McCain, Mitt Romney, and especially Rudy Giuliani. Dobson may not like it, but he's pointedly not endorsing Giuliani either, and right now it's a two-man race.

Thompson can wait it out. Dobson will come around if it's Fred vs. Hillary Clinton. And besides this will make the libertarian wing of the Republican party gravitate toward Fred Thompson even more.

Fred Thompson hit my adoptive hometown, Jacksonville, Florida, yesterday, where he began a swing through the Sunshine State. Florida, of course, is the place where all the strangest election-related stories seem to happen. Hanging chads, malfunctioning electronic voting machines, Katherine Harris, the list goes on and on. Oh, and who could forget the way Republicans in the federal government inserted themselves into the Terri Schiavo case? Actually, strike that. I guess there is one person who didn't seem to be paying attention.

Thompson was asked in an interview for Bay News 9's "Political Connections" program whether he thought Congress' intervention to save the life of the brain-damaged woman two years ago was appropriate.

"I can't pass judgment on it. I know that good people were doing what they thought was best," Thompson said. "That's going back in history. I don't remember the details of it."

Going back in history? Two years? Later in the interview, Thompson seemed to remember his own Federalist leanings, and recovered somewhat.

"Local matters generally speaking should be left to the locals. I think Congress has got an awful lot to keep up with."

One gets the sense that Fred hasn't been very busy boning up on specific issues in all the months that he has waited to enter the race. He has badly fumbled questions regarding Osama bin Laden, and now Schiavo. These subjects aren't exactly ancient history. More evidence of an underwhelming start? George Will replayed Thompson's recent appearance on Sean Hannity where he was asked:

"When you look at the other current crop of candidates--Republicans--where is the distinction between your positions and what you view as theirs?" Thompson replied: "Well, to tell you the truth, I haven't spent a whole lot of time going into the details of their positions."

Behold the new Republican front-runner, America.

There's a lot being made on the web about Fred Thompson and his church-going habits. Here's how he describes it:

Republican presidential contender Fred Thompson, who has based his campaign on appealing to conservative voters, said he isn't a regular churchgoer and doesn't plan to speak about his religion on the stump.

...``I attend church when I'm in Tennessee. I'm in McLean right now,'' he said referring to the Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C., where he lives. ``I don't attend regularly when I'm up there.''

Thompson said he usually attends church when visiting his mother in Tennessee and isn't a member of any church in the Washington area.

The media is writing it up as some kind of detriment to his candidacy in the South when in fact, it's not a detriment anywhere.

The biggest misconception in the media and with liberals is that a candidate has to win over the "leaders" on the religious right to stand a chance and anyone who pays attentions knows it's a lie. They are a bloc of voters who will vote on the candidate who most agrees with their views, period. Why does the MSM always feel they have to lump groups together such as the "black vote" or the "Hispanic vote"? I've never heard of the "white vote" voting as a bloc. I know for a fact that unions members don't vote exclusively Democrat because many have told me so. They may wave the banner but when they -- just like all people -- get in the booth and the curtain closes don't hit the button for Dems every time, I suspect the same can be said of Christian voters. Liberals are another story entirely but I digress.

Many on the Christian right are taking a hard look at Fred "The Tennessee Stud" Thompson, and wondering just how much enthusiasm they can muster for the man. Recent articles chronicle a clear desire for a Republican candidate who, like George W. Bush before him, will trod the well-worn path that non-believer Karl Rove cut in the ticket separating politics from religion. So, is Thompson their man?

Indeed, the subject of religion came up a lot yesterday on the campaign trail, and I'm happy to report that Thompson doesn't seem to have much of an appetite for it. From the AP:

Republican presidential contender Fred Thompson, who has based his campaign on appealing to conservative voters, said he isn't a regular churchgoer and doesn't plan to speak about his religion on the stump...

Talking to reporters later, Thompson, a former Tennesse senator, said his church attendance "varies."

"I attend church when I'm in Tennesse. I'm in McLean right now," he said referring to the Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C., where he lives. "I don't attend regularly when I'm up there."

Good for him. A return to a Ronald Reagan-like skepticism of wearing your religion on your sleeve has certainly been long in coming. Still, one has to wonder a little at Mr. Thompson's rather self-assured take on his current standing with God.

"I know that I'm right with God and the people I love," he said in Greenville. It's "just the way I am not to talk about some of these things."

Funny to hear someone talk about subjects that they aren't one to talk about. And I am interested to know how he knows that he's right with God. Is that like God telling George Bush that invading Iraq was the right thing to do? Small questions, I guess. The larger issue remains that James Dobson and his throngs of hard-core Christian voters still don't have their poster-child.

It looks to be like about 5 points so far, according to a great post at NRO. Team Thompson put together an email saying this:

This week's round of new national polls is extremely encouraging. All are trending up for Fred Thompson. The CBS/NYTimes poll shows a gain of 15 points from a month ago. CNN shows us in a statistical tie for the lead, and the Rasmussen poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Fred Thompson in the lead.

I'll put the tables after the bump. Basically what we are looking at is a quick 5 points after the announcement. I don't think it's finished though.

• Thompson took his support directly from Rudy and is ahead or tied in 2 of the 4 polls.
• McCain seems to have stopped his downward momentum and may have restored it a bit. He's still finished.
• Romney is going nowhere. Fast.

Looks to me like a Rudy Giuliani vs. Fred Thompson race. Team Thompson taking easy shots can't hurt.

Mitt Romney's response? Polls don't matter. Politicians say that when they are losing.

As the WaPo describes him, a "top adviser" to the Mitt Romney campaign was caught with a Web site that attacked Fred Thompson:

Before it vanished, the front page of the website featured a picture of a regal Thompson dressed in a frilly outfit more befitting a Gilbert and Sullivan production than a presidential campaign. Under the heading, "Playboy Fred," the site asks the question: "Once a Pro-Choice Skirt Chaser, Now Standard Bearer of the Religious Right?"

Nice. Real classy. Was this done at the request of the Romney campaign? If so, it should be a deal breaker for Mitt Romney. Especially considering Romney's flirtation with abortion is far, far more extensive than whatever Fred Thompson has done on the subject.

We're a long way from Reagan's 11th commandment.

On what? That if caught, Osama bin Laden should be granted the due process of law in a courtroom, like the kind seen in "Law and Order." Killing him? That should wait. From the Politico:

But, according to the AP, the former senator said such a punishment shouldn't be immediately meted out. "No, no, no, we've got due process to go through" depending on the circumstances, he said. "I'm not suggesting those things happen simultaneously."

Good for Fred Thompson. It's pretty much the same line that Howard Dean follows:

"I still have this old-fashioned notion that even with people like Osama, who is very likely to be found guilty, we should do our best not to, in positions of executive power, not to prejudge jury trails,"

And Thompson isn't just giving lip-service to the idea of innocent until proven guilty. He put it into practice back in the early 1990's when his firm was defending the Libyan terrorists who blew up Pan Am 103. Thompson even took it upon himself to advise a colleague on how best to defend the Libyans from prosecution. I wonder what former prosecutor, Rudy Giulaini makes of it all.

Simply put, a campaign isn't the same as a scripted TV drama. Watch Thompson's performance on Good Morning America. Diane Sawyer asks him a straight-forward question, and Fred... well, judge for yourself:

It's not going to get any easier for the man formerly known as Freddie. The rest of the Republican field is going to pounce on missteps like this. Memo to Thompson, the time to prepare your answers on the most obvious questions in the campaign has officially passed.

(Tip o' the hat to Talking Points Memo for posting the video)

Three cautionary tales have arisen on the campaign trail on the perils of raising mega-bucks in order to attain the highest office in the land.

Last night, The Politico ran an item on Fred Thompson's ties to a King Pharmaceuticals, a company that for years systematically overcharged Medicaid, among other programs, for drugs.

Fred Thompson accepted at least $13,800 from a Tennessee family that oversaw a pharmaceutical company accused of ripping off federal and state governments.

This morning, The Salt Lake Tribune shines a bit more light on a Mitt Romney donor caught up in an unseemly scandal involving child abuse at orphanage schools.

Robert Lichfield of La Verkin, who founded the umbrella group called Worldwide Association of Specialty Schools, brought in some $300,000 earlier this year for Romney during a single Utah event and has donated tens of thousands to the former Massachusetts governor and other Republicans in recent years.

Lichflield is named in a federal lawsuit charging that the students of the "behavior modification" schools with ties to WWASPS were subjected to "physical abuse, emotional abuse and sexual abuse."

And of course there's Hillary Clinton's to do involving her no-longer-on-the-lam supporter Norman Hsu. From The Seattle Times:

The strange case dates to 1991, when Hsu pleaded no contest to grand theft in San Mateo County, south of SanFrancisco, in connection with a scheme in which he bilked investors out of $1 million...

...He has been among Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's most aggressive fundraisers, generating more than $100,000 for her presidential run.

All three of these incidents, it seems to me, is a case of guilt by association. Thompson, Romney, and Clinton all look worse for accepting cash from tainted sources. So far, Clinton is the only one who has given the cash back.

From the Washington Wire, Fred Thompson's early stats:

Since midnight, some 13,195 people have registered at Thompson's Web site, and he's raked in more than $300,000 in online donations. The site has received 126,000 unique visitors and Thompson's 15-minute announcement video was seen 110,000 times, Thompson aides report.

Thompson's (newest) campaign manager Bill Lacy briefed reporters on the bus and said that he thinks the campaign is off to "a fabulous start."

Of course, considering his job, that's exactly what you would expect him to say. But there's no doubt that Fred is dominating the news cycle, as just a casual glance at the political sites and headlines will tell you. But is Fred just a flash in the pan that will burn brightly but far too quickly? Or does he have real staying power.

I do believe he's here to stay, but the buzz must translate into poll numbers, dollars, and volunteers. We'll know whether thats happened in a month or so. Snapshots of the first day of campaigning tell us that buzz has been achieved, but we already knew that.

Since Fred Thompson now officially wants us to get to know him, I thought I'd draw some attention to a pretty amusing hit-piece in the LA Times today that chronicles Thompson's entry into the political world. For everyone out there who has a tenuous relationship with his or her in-laws, the story is worth a gander. It's the made-for-television tale of how, back in 1959, Thompson got his high school girlfriend, Sarah Elizabeth Lindsey, pregnant, then asked her to marry him. Lindsey's family was, shall we say, a tad underwhelmed with Thompson, who did not seem possess any real drive.

Beautiful and brainy, she [Lindsey] had edited the yearbook, joined the science club and graduated near the top of her class. In the fall, she'd be off to college.

Her boyfriend, Freddie Thompson [his given name], was another story.

A year behind Lindsey in school, he was a 6-foot-5 stick of undeveloped potential, awkward and lacking in drive. He seemed to devote himself only to pickup basket ball games. . .

So, other than being knocked-up what did well-to-do Lindsey see in Thompson?

Friends say the attraction was physical. Thompson had a deep voice--recognizable to anyone who has watched him play a district attorney on NBC's "Law & Order" ...

Evidently, Nixguy has a similar crush (I'm kidding).

I just finished watching the official announcement video by Fred Thompson and the appearance on Leno last night. (available at Scott's post) Overall: Fred is a rock star who changed the shape of the GOP race just by thinking about entering back in late May and early June.

The official video is extremely wordy and sort of conventional. Plenty of red meat for the conservatives, and a nice turn of phrase: "A government that is powerful enough to do anything for you is powerful enough to do anything to you." Did I mention it's wordy?

Jay Leno had a great bumper sticker: "Fred Thompson: He has a narrow stance." Heh. I'm always impressed at how totally at ease Fred is with himself in these situations. He doesn't mind talking and he has a great voice, with which he just rambles on and on. It's going to be easy for folks to get comfortable with him and trust him. Hillary Clinton's high pitched and forced voice mannerisms will look even worse when compared to Fred Thompson.

Prediction: Fred Thompson national polling averages gets a bump of 10 points that should drop back three points in a couple of weeks as the newness wears off.