The always excellent Marc Abinder brings us a preview of the October fundraising numbers. This of course will have tremendous implications for the direction of the GOP primary.
Romney has loaned himself nearly $9M, which, when subtracted from his $12M cash-on-hand, would suggest that receipts in have not kept pace with disbursements, generally, which have totaled more than $32M. Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign's budget intact. They give a range of $10M to $12M for individual contributions in the third quarter.
John McCain will raise between $4 and $5M; Fred Thompson will probably raise around $6M.
If this is true that Fred Thompson is barely ahead of John McCain in the fundraising department, it certainly does not bode well for Team Thompson. Even considering that Thompson has not revved up the engine throughout the third quarter, he should have been able to reach out and tap the primary network of contributors for a big initial flush of cash. Either his network isn't very big, or the enthusiasm with which his campaign has been received will receive a cold shower.
With apologies to "Star Trek," let me just say this about John McCain's presidential aspirations: "It's dead, Jim".
Over the weekend, David Freddoso at NRO traveled to the Michigan GOP confab at Mackinac Island where just hours earlier John McCain lost his Michigan chairman. Yes they were both there:
If heintended to embarrass Sen. John McCain, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox could not really have done it more effectively than he has. His announcement Monday that he was stepping down as McCain's state chairman came just in time for this weekend's Republican retreat here, which every major GOP presidential candidate was scheduled to attend.
That's a pretty big hit. Some of us recall that in 2000 John McCain won a surprising and huge victory in the Michigan primary If he has any hope at all (and he doesn't) he needs to do the same thing in 2008. That's not going to happen when your main man in Michigan decides to jump ship. But then again, McCain was able to convince a lot of Democrats and independents to come over and vote GOP (and for him) instead of the boring and decided Democratic nomination. This year, Hillary Clinton is not quite anointed yet, and Democrats will probably choose to vote on the Democratic side.
McCain still has some potent Republican fundraisers on his Michigan team, but many of them acknowledge that it's tough to excite donors to write checks.
He has lost his campaign plane and has to travel commercial, making him less mobile -- and less able to cram in fundraisers.
Once considered by some the unquestionable front-runner for the GOP nomination (despite every poll showing Mayor Giuliani out front), over the summer the Straight Talker has been having his obituary typed up like a frail pope with a robust head cold. Now, however, the press is ready to declare a McCain "rebound." A Washington Post columnist, David Broder, recently said Mr. McCain has found his footing; the Manchester Union-Leader penned an editorial heralding, "A comeback begun," and the Arizona Republic said, " McCain is on the rise."
It's only a matter of time before Newsweek runs a cover declaring Mr. McCain "The Comeback Kid" or some other such nonsense.
Humbug - to put it politely. Mr. McCain certainly has seen a bounce since August, when he bottomed out with national numbers such as 7% in the Fox News poll and 11% in the Quinnipiac poll. Now, he's back up to an average of around 15%, exactly where he was in July and 10 points down from where he was in January. So, yes, call it a bounce - like a dead cat hitting the pavement.
That front-runner status was always a fiction, and the perception relied on an ignorance of what the average Republican voter really thought about McCain. The only thing changed is that the CW became a bit more educated as a result of the immigration debate and the aftermath.
The latest fundraising numbers put it in perspective. In the first quarter, McCain raised $12.5 million. In the second quarter, he raised about $11 million. Now in the third quarter, he's raised only $3.7 million with next to no cash on hand? That's not the direction you want to be moving in. Now that the numbers are out, the other campaigns won't take him seriously and neither will the media. McCain is over. But then again, he always was.
John McCain does it every time. Once I think he's settled back into the race, he goes and says something stupid, which makes me have to slam him again.
This time McCain says he no longer belongs to the Church of England but now gets with the Lord Southern Baptist-style:
HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. - Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who has long identified himself as an Episcopalian, said this weekend that he is a Baptist and has been for years.
Campaigning in this conservative, predominantly Baptist state, McCain called himself a Baptist when speaking to reporters Sunday and noted that he and his family have been members of the North Phoenix Baptist Church in his home state of Arizona for more than 15 years.
"It's well known because I'm an active member of the church," the Arizona senator said.
This is pandering of a high order, not quite Hillaryesque but nearing that level. At least he didn't use a fake black or fake Southern accent like she did.
As I wrote earlier, who gives a damn about someones religion? I thought we were well passed that when Catholic John Kennedy was elected and the Jewish Joe Lieberman almost was. It's a non-issue that McCain is attempting make into one and he looks idiotic doing it. Does Senator McCain think he can resurrect his campaign by trying to win over Southern Baptists? Fred Thompson will own the South and McCain can't do anything about it at this point.
Thus far, McCain has flip-flopped on immigration and his religion, what's next John, are you going to turn against the war effort to garner some support?
When he was held captive in Vietnam, it probably looked like his time on earth was limited. After he got beat by Bush, it looked like he would be too old to run again. When he showed compassion for the problems of illegal immigrants, it looked like he had killed his political hopes. Yes, most of us believed that the hopes of John McCain being president of the United States had turned to dust.
Dust you say. Was it the phoenix that rose from the ashes. The bird is the symbol of immortality. Isn't Phoenix the capital of Arizona. Isn't McCain the senator from Arizona? Yes he is and like the phoenix, he has risen from the ashes.
In the latest Rasmussen report, McCain has begun to rise. He has pulled ahead of Mitt Romney (no big deal) and his "favorability rating" among Republicans has risen to 63%. This is just behind Fred Thompson (64%) and Rudy Giuliani (68%).
Even if McCain loses, it would be nice to see him in the race until the end. The man has fought for his country and not been afraid to say what he believes.
Senator John McCain has been slowly going up in the polls after having floundered terribly for several weeks. It would seem that by strongly staking out a pro Iraq War stance, McCain has gained a few points in the polls as well as gaining some of his favor with the public back. According to the AP, McCain has made several appearances with veteran's groups and has also campaigned with a banner that states "Never surrender."
This campaign strategy is far removed from the anti-war stances taken by Sen. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and sets him far apart from the Democratic field, but will it help him significantly in the Republican primary?
While the end result remains to be seen, a win would be doubtful Sen. John McCain has suffered a major setback on the presidential campaign trail as his poll numbers have been lagging in every poll in the nation. Most embarrassingly, McCain's numbers in is own home state has been disastrous. In fact, there was speculation at one point that McCain might not even win re-election for his Senate seat. For McCain, being tied directly to the failed Amnesty Bill was unforgivable in the eyes of the public. Will his public support for the war effort reverse the tide of negativity facing his campaign? It would seem that it will, but to what extent remains to be seen.
Call it shooting yourself in the foot, and then the other foot. With the exception of John McCain, the slate of Republican candidates for president did not accept Univision's offer for a Spanish-language debate. The country's fifth-largest television network, and the "top-rated local newscast in 16 media markets," Univision broadcast a Democratic Party debate last night.
So why does it matter for the GOP? The Politico explains the obvious:
Republican and Democratic strategists agree that in order to win the White House, the presidential candidate must receive at least 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. Hispanics are expected to make up 10 percent of the total vote in 2008.
GOP candidates seem to be following the conclusion of its conservative base that the party cannot win over the Hispanic vote, Rosenberg [Dan, president of NDN] said. "I think we will look back on this time and it will be seen as one of the greatest strategic blunders in American history," he added.
Yes, the fastest-growing segment (legal, mind you) of the American voting population is not happy with the Republican party. All of George W. Bush's hard work at making in-roads to a constituency that the GOP needs, if it will ever win the White House again, has been squandered.
I, and others, had John McCain politically dead not so long ago. It seems that those rumors were premature.
McCain's campaign suffered greatly in the summer by his steadfastness on the "shamnesty" bill. He worked in concert with President Bush, Teddy Kennedy and others to push the bill through that was hated by conservatives and was not accepted by centrists who were wary of the language and intent. Talk radio and the right-wing blogosphere upbraided McCain on a daily basis and his poll numbers dropped quickly. He's taken quite a beating at this site as well.
Here we are with the summer over and the real campaign about to begin and the feeling is that McCain is building up some momentum. His performance during the last debate showed him as a funny guy but also serious when it comes to the war in Iraq and the greater War on Terror. In other words, it was the relaxed, loose John McCain, not the McCain who seems stiff and uncomfortable much of the time. It seems as though he enjoys being in the pack rather than the lead. During the 2000 run, he was looser and ran a decent campaign with the exception of his irritating habit of sticking to his talking points instead of ad libbing.
It's been fun pointing out the signposts that mark the way to John McCain's withdrawal from the presidential race. Here's another one, a Rasmussen poll for Arizona:
Arizona is the home state for John McCain, but Fred Thompson is the strongest GOP Presidential candidate in the state at this time.
A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that Thompson leads Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton by seventeen percentage points, 51% to 34%. Thompson will be formally announcing his candidacy this week.
McCain's edge over Hillary Clinton was 46% to 36%. Which means that John McCain lost 5 points against Fred Thompson in his home state. Clearly John McCain is very much over. I am now intensely interested in the 3rd quarter fundraising numbers for the McCain campaign.
Republican presidential hopefuls Sen. John McCain and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich both attended a recent gala event for Christians United for Israel (CUFI).
"Speaking of Iraq, (McCain) said, 'The temptation is to wash our hands of a messy situation. To follow this impulse, however, portends catastrophe, for Iraq, Israel, and the United States,'" The American Conservative reported.
Gingrich, meanwhile, awaited the proceedings "with a somewhat bored expression on his face," and didn't exactly impress in his speech, according to TAC.
What role will the Mideast, and the Bible prophecies that inspire some Christian Zionists, play in the 2008 presidential election? TAC did note that the CUFI event attracted 4,500 people, and that the gathering included many powerful televangelists. Is this the support that McCain and Gingrich have been praying for?
John McCain started out the latest campaign as the front-runner and media darling. He will always be the "maverick," the one who took on George W. Bush in 2000 and only lost because of Rovian dirty tricks. He was the guy who was going to win the nomination.
Fast-forward to the present and we see a McCain campaign in absolute shambles; brought down by his outspoken leadership on amnesty and the sham bill put before Congress. He joined with the President Bush and Teddy Kennedy to push through a bill that so many saw as granting rewards to those who broke our laws. He chose the wrong side and it cost him dearly, going from top-tier to third-tier with Ron Paul and Sam Brownback. The media spun his free-fall as the result of his support of the war in Iraq, yet anyone who pays attention knew that was garbage.
As proof of just what tripped up his campaign, he's done a 180 on the illegal immigration issue by sponsoring a bill that will, wait for it...enforce the border and penalize those who break our laws.
The move away from a comprehensive measure is an about-face for the Arizona senator, who had been a leading GOP champion of a bill that included a guest worker program and would have legalized many of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. It failed earlier this year.
...Among other things, the bill makes being in the country illegally a criminal misdemeanor and toughens penalties for re-entering after being deported. It mandates an electronic system for employers to check workers' citizenship status and requires illegal immigrants who commit a crime to be held in jail until they are deported.
Last week, Sen. John McCain stopped by the Christians United for Israel (CUFI) summit in Washington, D.C. CUFI, whose founder's, um, remarkable views on Israel are detailed here, got to hear some war-mongering talk on Iran from the Arizona Republican.
"Military action isn't our preference," McCain told his audience in Washington, DC. "It remains, as it always must, the last option. We have some way to go diplomatically before we need to contemplate other measures. But it is a simple observation of reality that there is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran."
The maverick of 2000 is continuing his shift toward unqualified conservatism, telling the crowd that he is "a Christian, proudly pro-American and proudly pro-Israel." Had he palled around with fundamentalists in the millennial year of Y2K, he might have won the Republican nomination. Is it too late for a "Second Coming"?
Or so John McCain is telling his troops, explaining why he is not quitting after some very rough times recently. A couple of campaign memoes are circulating from Team McCain, one of which explains that Ronald Reagan was broke in 1979 as well:
Chris Cillizza reports it:
The first document seeks to draw parallels between Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential bid and the current state of McCain's operation. "During the summer of 1979, Ronald Reagan's campaign reported that it was broke," begins the memo. "The candidate had to explain his weak fundraising and big spending, as well as overcome doubts about his age and ability." After firing much of his top campaign staff just before the New Hampshire primary, he went on to win that ballot, the GOP nomination and the presidency. "Ultimately when Ronald Reagan took control of his own campaign, he started to see successes," the document reads.
It's a nice narrative and a good find for the McCain team. Reagan hits hard times, nearly flounders, but changes his leadership and strategy and goes on to victory and eight years of changing history. I'm sure that the McCain team is hoping it's true. It's not.
It will go down in history as a textbook case of how not to run a campaign. As more of his staffers continue to jump ship, it is only a matter of time before we'll hear the announcement that John McCain is dropping out of the race. How did it happen? Consider the long-view. Over the course of a distinguished career in the United States Senate, you work hard to build a reputation as a independent voice. People go so far as to call you a maverick, a guy who is willing to buck the party establishment and stand on principle. In your first run for the presidency, you garner strong support, only to see your reputation dragged through the mud by the Republican contest's eventual victor. But in defeat you are humble. You steel yourself, buck up, even make peace with the new president for the good of the country.
Eight years later you get your chance to run again. But by now something has changed. You have thought long and hard about what went wrong the first time around. You have asked yourself, how could a man like George W. Bush have actually beaten me? One answer seems unavoidable. To win, you must cozy up to the Religious right. So you start saying strange things. You praise religious zealots you once criticized. You give speeches that make you sound like an insurance salesman trying to drum up business. Worse, because he is the incumbent, you believe you must cozy up to the very man who questioned your mental acuity as a result of the torture you endured in Viet Nam. In short, you start pandering, the very activity that seemed so antithetical to your nature all those years ago. Add in support for George Bush's failed war, and George Bush's failed immigration bill, and that's all she wrote. It's over. In short, you seemed to learn all the wrong lessons from the first time around.
So now the John McCain press team is collapsing. Three of its members resigned on Monday.
McCain is coming off as a sell-out to the far right, and maybe it will be impossible for him to generate any more "Straight Talk," as he did in 2000. Promoting his candidacy will be tough for even the most seasoned spin-doctor.
And yet the changes suggest that he is fighting to preserve his campaign, and that the Arizona senator shouldn't be counted out just yet.
In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie defeated Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. The Republican victory deals a blow to President Barack Obama as he readies for next year's midterm elections. Obama campaigned heavily for Corzine. (Nov. 3)
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics says Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia was a failure for President Barack Obama's campaign efforts, but not a direct referendum on his job performance.
I, and others, had 
It's been fun pointing out the signposts that mark the way to John McCain's withdrawal from the presidential race. Here's another one, a 
