Mike DeWine, fresh from a humiliating defeat after twelve years in the senate is back on the trail, this time for John McCain:

"I have known John McCain for almost 25 years. We both were elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1982. I worked closely with him during our years together in the House and during my 12 years in the U.S. Senate. No one is more qualified to be our next President. While our Party is truly fortunate to have such a strong field of qualified candidates, I believe that John McCain has what it takes - the experience, knowledge, and foresight - to lead our Nation. He is decisive. He has guts. And, he leaves no room for ambiguity or uncertainty in his reasoned policy decisions.

"I don't agree with John McCain on every issue. But, I do know that when we elect a President, we elect the Commander-in-Chief. We elect someone who is going to be making life and death decisions every single day. There is only one person I want making those decisions - and that person is John McCain.

"The fact is that the future and security of this country hinges on next year's election. The Presidency requires a person of sound judgment, with an extraordinary grasp of foreign and military affairs - someone who can navigate our country through very dangerous and unchartered waters. Again, that person is John McCain.

Reaction from the Ohio Republican blogosphere was swift, fierce, and for those familiar with the situation, completely unsurprising.

I'm monitoring an interesting debate between some of my fellow Ohio bloggers as to why the GOP had such a rough election, especially in Ohio. Matt Hurley of Weapons of Mass Discussion, and sees the loss as a problem within the party and something that needs to be addressed by cracking heads within the GOP:

I fear that we are not actually taking appropriate action in the face of such a huge loss at the state level. Something really bad happened and I haven't heard a peep from the political guru class just what exactly happened and what they propose to fix it. If Bennett isn't the problem, I think Ohio's Republicans deserve an answer to two questions: What was the problem? And how are we going to fix it?

...

The problem that I see is that there was a breakdown in the coalition of social conservatives and the moderates. Someone with some credibility in both camps is going to have to step up and bridge that divide...I don't know who that might be, but the party ought to be seeking that person out pronto. (Might this be a job for John Kasich?)

This week, I got a chance to do something few liberals ever do: visit a red state (Ohio). More observations from Bush Country...

Certain parts of Ohio are very hostile to gay marriage. In 2004, state voters passed an anti-gay marriage amendment, with only one county (Athens, home of Ohio University) voting against it.

Want to understand the appeal of the religious right? Go to Ohio. Barns bear Jesus slogans, billboards condemn abortion, and 12,000-member megachurches are part of the landscape. As my ever-trusty Ohio source noted, it was wise for President Bush to describe, six years ago on the campaign trail, the impact of Jesus Christ on his life. Dubya proved a better reader of public opinion than Al Gore ever was.

And if the Democrats have anything going for them, it's the need to boost jobs here. Yesterday, we drove through rotting industrial hulks in Cleveland (to the just-as-depressing accompaniment of local boys Pere Ubu). This showed the economic challenges new Sen. Sherrod Brown seems eager to fix. He may not revive the Rust Belt ... but let's hope he can do something.

I'm in Ohio now, folks, for a one-week vacation. Info I've picked up courtesy of conversations with people who live here (including my ever-trusty Ohio source):

The Buckeye State economy is lagging. "The unemployment rate in Ohio is 5.7 percent -- a full point above the national figure," the Washington Post reported in October. Sherrod Brown, the victorious Democratic candidate for senator, used the jobs issue effectively, saying he was fighting to help "the middle class." But can he do this? While Columbus seems like a healthy place to do business (think Tim Horton's, United Dairy Farmers, and Wendy's), revitalizing the Rust Belt may be too tough.

Maybe Democrats shouldn't pat themselves on the backs too much over winning the elections for senator and governor. A sign outside a church in the Clintonville neighborhood of Columbus told the faithful to support what is right ... as opposed to who is right. I took this to mean that some disenchanted Republicans on the religious right stayed home on Election Day.

No. Really. It's a contact sport.

Pat DeWine was having dinner at the restaurant. Seated at the table next to DeWine and his dinner companion were two men DeWine vaguely recognized but didn't know.

One of those men started running his mouth -- loudly -- about Sherrod Brown unseating Mike DeWine.

"He was purposefully saying some insulting and personal comments about my father," DeWine said today.

"I certainly lost my temper, but I didn't punch anybody."

Pat DeWine is ex-senator Mike DeWine's son and one of the commissioners of Hamilton County Ohio (Cincinnati). And if you follow the link, several witnesses indicate that the altercation was physical. But really, all around lack of class on everyone's part here. A guy should be able to have a meal without being heckled, and what the heck did Pat think was going to happen in a confrontation? That he was going to defend his dad's honor and not have it get in the papers?

Scuttlebutt around Ohio has it that DeWine is going to settle back for a couple of years and prepare to challenge Ted Strickland for governor of Ohio in 2010. Publicly, DeWine is only saying that he's considering a teaching career, but you don't kill off an old politician that easily. He's going to try for something. But what? Governor is out, Voinovich will run again for his seat in 2010. A congressional district is a step down for a senator, so that leaves the governorship in 2010.

The rumors of this are filling the Ohio GOP rank and file with dismay. While DeWine was a two-term US Senator, he also lost to an all-out liberal in what is widely regarded as a terrible campaign. The campaign was slow, it went negative clumsily and not on the strongest issues, and we often got the sense that DeWine never really took the campaign seriously. Certainly he never really made the case to vote for him. He made the case that the other guy was worse. Well, now we have the other guy.

But here's the real reason the ranks are saying "no DeWine". he completely flipped the counties in SE Ohio over to the other side. What was that about?

The race between Senator Mike DeWine and Senator Sherrod Brown is neck and neck. From the perspective of a gun owner the race is lose-lose and there is no lesser of two evils. It is important to note that the Brady Campaign has endorsed Senator Mike DeWine for re-election.

Oh.

Read it and weep (oh, I am). The Republicans can claim one lone victory, for state auditor. But every other statewide race has gone to the Dems.

Blackwell down 23 points. Senator DeWine lost by 10 points.

Most of these guys are well-known household names in Ohio. There's no other way around it. The GOP organization in Ohio was fired. However in this is a great opportunity for the Democrats, but they should remember that they won the election not because of who they were, but because of who they were not.

Wit that in mind it seems strange that in the midst of a national GOP loss, that the Ohio GOP delegation to the house lost only one of theirs. Joy Padgett, who was running to replace Bob Ney in District 18. This is a usually conservative district and I expect the primary fight to take on new congressperson Zack Space to be especially fierce.

New voting systems have some glitches:

More than 40 polling places in Cuyahoga County reported problems with some or all of their electronic voting machines this morning and had to revert to paper ballots to allow residents to vote, according to a spokesman from the county's Board of Elections.

Otherwise, there were no major problems at the 573 polling sites as they opened at 6:30 a.m., Alan Melamed said. He said a few polling places in Cuyahoga County reported trouble with machines early this morning but all were open and welcoming voters at or shortly after 6:30 a.m.

We're all hoping that things go much smoother than in the May primary

Results from the May 2 primary were delayed six days when roughly 18,000 absentee ballots had to be hand counted because they were improperly formatted for the new optical scan voting machines. Poll workers also had problems operating the machines, some poll workers didn't show up, vote memory cards disappeared and one precinct opened hours late.

Of course that was the first stab with the new machines. Hopefully things go smoother but if not, this could be a long night.

Rove had some interesting things to say in this interview with Hugh Hewitt. Obviously he's putting out the whole "optimistic" vibe. Big Time. But when he delves into specifics on the senate races, there's some interesting items he picks out. On the Michigan senate race:

There's a pollster named Steve Mitchell, who does polling almost exclusively in Michigan, the Epic Poll, and he called the 2000 Presidential race on the button, he called the 2002 gubernatorial race on the button. He called the 2004 Presidential race on the button. And he's shown in the last week a dramatic close by the Republican candidates for both governor and Senator....

Mason-Dixon now has this race at 50-44 for Sherrod Brown.

DeWine has some especially hard hitting ads out this weekend featuring a former undercover officer who ran a sting on one of Brown's staff back in the 80's.

My fellow SOB Alliance blogger Ben Keeler has this to say about the DeWine campaign:

Despite Ohio's toxic environment, this race never should have gotten to this point. In June and July, DeWine should have been running ads telling everyone that Brown votes like Dennis Kucinich and he could have defined him to the voters, but he didn't. Instead he was running ads touting the fact he brought in funds for firefighters - which is great, but it isn't an ad that works in 2006. I can't tell you how many times (many) over the years I have sent a letter or email to the DeWine offices. I can tell you how many times I have gotten a response, even a form letter - 1. I doubt I am the only one. DeWine never thought he would have to fight hard for his seat, and when he finally realized it, it was too late. I have to admit I was caught a bit off guard here as well. Many Republican voters just aren't as forgiving as me I suppose, as he is not well liked by the base here. DeWine never had a tough race for the Senate - he had a weak opponent in both 1994 and 2000. Come January, Ohio will have a new Democratic Senator that brings flashbacks of Howard Metzenbaum and it could have and should have been prevented. I actually am seeing Brown winning by more in Ohio than Casey in PA at this point. We will be coming for you in 2012, Senator Brown.

Ben's a little more pessimistic than I am. If DeWine closes to 5 points he can still do it.

With DeWine cutting a 10 point lead to a 6 point lead in the last ten days...

This Sunday is when the voter guides get distributed at churches...

Apathy among the non-aligned general public...

Probably the best developed ground game for the GOP in the country...

A new hard hitting ad that is making the Sherrod Brown campaign wince.

DeWine has a lot of built-in structural advantages. I'm not counting him out.

Mike Allen notes that the NRSC has thrown about $900,000 in Michigan behind Michael Bouchard's underdog campaign against incumbent Democrat senator Debbie Stabenow.

Michael Bouchard has refused to be buried and although he's still at least 7 points behind in public polling, he's stayed close the entire race in a state where public polling consistently under reports GOP strength.

"Mike CAN win with the right resources and that's why we are coming in," says NRSC Communications Director Brian Nick. "He's running on the fact that the economy is the worst in the country and that Stabenow is ineffective. It's resonating, big time." The new ads started yesterday. The committee had previously given Bouchard $1.2 million. Democrats say it's too late, and that Stabenow has used her cash advantage to build a lead and define Bouchard

Bouchard had the help of Kid Rock and Uncle Kracker at a Detroit area rally and has been running some really great ads featuring his daughter Mikayla. See here and here.

Can he do it? There are four races that I am marking as an upset opportunity. Steele in MD, Kean in NJ, DeWine in OH and Bouchard in MI. Ranked in order of most likely upset? MD, OH, MI, NJ. I believe that among these four there will be at least one upset.

If this is true, it's quite a shock. According to Zogby Interactive, the Ohio Senate race is tied again.

The Zogby Interactive Poll has been very friendly to the GOP in Ohio over the past few months, much friendlier than other polls, so normally this would be the case of believing it when it agrees with the other ones, and throw it out otherwise.

But here's the thing. If we calibrate the Zogby poll against the other Senate races, Zogby Interactive agrees with the conventional wisdom in just about every state except Ohio. Talent is a little up in MO, Corker up a bit in TN. Zogby even captures that Webb has bounced ahead in VA.

Some background, this is not the normal Zogby Poll, it is a new method without a long track record.

Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site, as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum – liberal, conservative, and middle of the road; politically active and apolitical; easy to reach and hard to find. Many individuals who participate in Zogby's telephone surveys also submit e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

Michael J. Fox campaigns for Sherrod Brown on the stem cell issue:

Campaign 2006 brings in a big name for a Democrat who wants to be a U.S. Senator. Actor Michael J. Fox came to Ohio State on Monday, urging people to vote for Sherrod Brown. That's because Brown supports something dear to Fox's heart: more funding for embryonic stem cell research.

Michael J. Fox has had Parkinson's for 15 years. It's just one of the many diseases that scientists believe embryonic stem cell research can help in dissecting and perhaps even one day, curing.

"This is a coming home for me. Columbus is home of Alex Keaton and the Keatons of Ohio," Fox said.

It was a long time ago, and I was much younger, but I'm pretty sure "Family Ties" was set in Cleveland. Not that there were many outdoor shots.

What I really liked about "Family Ties," being a reactionary even then, was the fun dynamic of having two aging hippies raising a greed-is-good Nixon Republican. I like Alex P. Keaton better than Michael J Fox on the political front.

Will the stem cell controversy have a big impact in Ohio? Doubtful. It will generate some headlines, but a lot of the electorate is either evangelical or Catholic. Not much changing minds here. Much of the freshness of this issue was dissipated in Missouri.

Cleveland PD:

The Republican National Committee confirms it will not be on the air in the final week of Mike DeWine's campaign, canceling its ad reservations throughout Ohio.

Aaron McLear, RNC spokesman, says the party will continue its on-the-ground efforts and staff support for Ohio Republicans, and says he understands DeWine has about $2.8 million available for his own commercials.

But no more money for RNC ads as of Tuesday. The party canceled its air time reservations.

This is a smart move strategically. It's all up to DeWine. If DeWine can find the right message, he has more than enough money to execute it. As much or more important than advertising is the ground organization. The side benefit to that is that the RNC can help in at least four on the edge congressional races. But for ground organization to help DeWine he must pull within 5 points of Sherrod Brown. I believe he can do that.

Also see Keeler's Senate picks for similar thoughts.

UPDATE

Rasmussen this morning: DeWine down by 11. It Doesn't help DeWine but it does show that SurveyUSA poll was junk.

Survey USA just released a bogus poll Ohio.

Senate:
DeWine (R) 37
Brown (D) 57

Governor:
Strickland(D) 62
Blackwell (R) 32

The internals of the poll tell us that the voting public of Ohio is made up of 42% Democrats and 35% Republicans. We know that's wrong because Bush is president.

Like the CBS/NYT poll before them we can throw these out because luckily for us we have a really good poll with an excellent track record to compare.

Mason-Dixon

Senate:
DeWine 40
Brown 48

Governor:
Strickland: 54
Blackwell: 34

Believe me, I learned this by painful experience when I got suckered back in the Ohio May primary. SurveyUSA poll told us that Jean Schmidt had a 23 point lead. She won by only 5% over a very tough competitor.

Here's the rule for Survey USA. If it agrees with Rasmussen or Mason-Dixon or a host of other polls, it's OK. If it's disagreeing, believe the other poll.