The Republicans once had it all. They controlled all three branches of the government. The result has been a mess that will take years to fix. The dollar has plunged versus the Euro. We are mired in a war in Iraq in which there is no easy solution. The real estate industry is collapsing. But this story is not about the Republican failures.

Virginia Republican, Senator John Warner is retiring. A class act who served his country well. He spoke his mind and suggested what was best for his country. The Rasmussen poll is showing that his namesake, former Democratic Governor, Mark Warner is 20% ahead of his closest competitor if he should run for the Senate seat being vacated by John Warner.

This will be just another seat being lost by the Republicans. A popular candidate, such as Mark Warner, will only help the Democratic candidate for President capture the electoral votes of Virginia.

2008 is shaping up to be a very bad year for the Republicans but President Bush will retire as the undefeated champion who wrecked his party.

As expected, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner has announced that he will seek the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator John Warner (no relation) in Virginia. Mark Warner will be the favorite to win in 2008. Possible opponents on the Republican side include former Governor Jim Gilmore and current Rep. Tom Davis.

For the past few election cycles, the GOP establishment in Washington has chosen which candidates to support in local congressional races, both primary and general. Incumbents were supported no matter what, and the selection of new candidates was based on who had paid their 'dues' to the GOP rather than who was best suited for the job. Hence, you had the GOP supporting people like the liberal Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee for re-election in the GOP primary rather than staying out until the people chose who they wanted as their nominee. Chafee beat his challenger, Steve Laffey - but would not have without the national GOP's interference and money. The end result of that particular race was the voters in Rhode Island electing a real Democrat to the Senate (Sheldon Whitehouse), rather than re-electing a more liberal candidate who pretended to be a Republican. The same thing happened in Pennsylvania in 2004 in the Specter-Toomey race, although Specter held on to his seat. Since then, he's been one of the Democrats' best friends.

In a new post, Patrick Ruffini brings up the specter of Specter and Chafee in noting that many grassroots Republicans have had it with the old ways. There's a movement to get Rep. Eric Cantor to run in the Republican Senate primary in Virginia based on the fact that he is more representative of the conservative base than either Gilmore or Davis. Ruffini tells us that Warner has even started to poll Cantor, and it seems that Cantor might run stronger against the Democrats than either of the two other candidates mentioned. Will the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot again?

Mark Warner, the popular recent Governor of Virginia appears set to replace John Warner (no relation) who has announced his retirement. Having lived in Virginia during his predecessor (Gilmore) and during Warner's term, it's no surprise the early polls show a blow-out.

Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines) Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54 Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57. It's not even close.

The pending announcement makes it pretty clear:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington. Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor. One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate. "I'd be surprised if he didn't run for the Senate," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

This coupled with Hagel retiring in Nebraska (with Bob Kerrey set to run) Coleman (MN), Sunnunu (NH) (with Sheehan maybe getting in) all below 40% in their favorables and Collins (ME) facing a strong challenge from Rep. Tom Allen, the picture starts to form. A 4-8 vote swing in the senate would be very significant. It's early but the betting line forms to the left.

Here's the headline on this story in the Washington Post in light of the retirement of Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho): GOP Faces Growing Peril in 2008 Races.

I was all prepared to blast the headline, because while Virginia will be a challenge, Idaho is a red-red state and any Republican chosen to replace Craig will be heavily favored next November. So it's not good news, sure, but "growing peril"?

Then I read further into the article and find this nugget at paragraph six:

To be sure, last week's events will not necessarily change the terrain that much, if the Republicans get a little lucky.

And then goes on to note that Idaho won't be a problem at all, despite the headline and the lead paragraph. Nice. Virginia is indeed going to be a headache. Virginia Democrats not only have a popular former who could be persuaded to run, his name is also Warner, giving him a leg up in name recognition, while the Republicans are looking a thin. I wonder if they might consider turning back to George Allen and asking the voters to reconsider throwing out their Republican senator over a made up word. That will be interesting to watch.

Looks like the GOP will have two more holes to plug in its leaky ship in '08. Larry Craig's resignation seems imminent, as pressure mounts from within his party. And now longtime Virgina senator John Warner has announced he won't be seeking reelection next year.

``I'm quietly going to step aside and clear the way for others,'' Warner, 80, said at a press conference in Charlottesville. ``I've done my best.'' ...

Replacing Warner next year will set off a heated battle as Republicans seek to overcome the Democrats' 51-49 majority control of the Senate.

Among the names already being bandied about to run for Warner's seat are former governor James Gilmore and Representative Tom Davis on the Republican side. The Dems may run former governor Mark Warner.

Virginia was a battleground in '06, with underdog Dem. Jim Webb coming from behind to beat the increasingly clueless George Allen, and now it's shaping up to be just as crucial next November.

In an announcement that could have huge ramifications in the 2008 balance of power battle in the Senate between Democrats and Republicans, Senator John Warner will announce later today whether or not he will seek re-election next year. From last night:

Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school's famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event.

If Warner goes, I'd have to give the advantage to Democrats for his seat. Former Democrat Governor Mark Warner is still very popular in Virginia, and would be a formidable contender. On the Republican side, you would have Rep. Thomas M. Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore vying to replace Warner. As Davis has already set in motion a statewide get-to-know-the-candidate tour, and has already raised over a million dollars, he would probably be in the lead on the GOP side early on. There's even a good chance that he'd run against Warner in a primary, should Warner choose to seek re-election.

I haven't hid my disdain for what the distinguished Warner has become in the last year -- I've written here twice on the trouble with his recollections on personal experiences during the Vietnam War, which he claims is defining his calls for an exit from Iraq. Quite simply, he's old and way past his prime -- reduced to playing for posterity and media approval. It's long past time for the GOP to get new blood into the party, more of the type that ran and won in 1994. In particular, the Senate has become too much like the British House of Lords, with members "to the manner born" and appointed. If rebuilding the party means that a chance to regain the majority in the Senate will have to wait another couple of years, so be it.

The Washington Times is reporting this morning that it looks increasingly likely that Virginia Republican Senator John Warner is going to retire at the end of his term in 2008, rather than run for re-election.

Virginia Sen. John W. Warner has said little about whether he will run for re-election, but the 80-year-old Republican is giving clear indications that he will not return for another term and that his coyness is merely an attempt to help Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a fellow Republican, replace him.

While Warner has publicly stated that he is exploring the option of running for re-election, he's only raised $500 (that's right - five hundred dollars) so far in his campaign coffers. That's a pretty clear indication that he's not running.

An early favorite to replace him on the Republican side is Congressman Tom Davis. Any eventually Republican candidate would likely face former Virginia Governor Mark Warner (D), who remains very popular state-wide. Add to that the fact that Republicans have not fared well in Virginia statewide office elections recently, and a Davis-Warner match-up could be a barn-burner.

The odd tale of a senatorial aide arrested for bringing a gun (and two loaded magazines) into a Senate office building gets odder. Or at least no more clear.

Speaking to reporters from Capitol Hill today, Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., voiced support for Phillip Thompson, Webb's long-time friend and a former Marine. Webb called the incident "enormously unfortunate" and said he was sure the gun was brought in "completely inadvertently" to the Russell building yesterday.

The freshman senator would not directly comment on reports that the weapon was in fact his. He did say that: "I have had a permit to carry a weapon in Virginia for a long time. . . . It's important for me personally and a lot of people in the situation that I'm in to be able to defend myself and my family." He did say that he has never carried a gun into a Senate building. Here's more from the Washington Post:

Asked if he feels he is "above Washington, D.C.'s gun law," the senator said, "I'm not going to comment on any level in terms of how I provide for my own security." Nor would he say who gave Thompson the gun or whether the aide has a permit.

Webb refused to go into much more detail, citing the ongoing legal investigation. Thompson is scheduled to be arraigned this afternoon. So what do you think of this case: was it just a mix-up, or is something else going on? Leave your comments below.

Update 2:53PM: Pleading not guilty to weapons violations charges, Thompson was released on his own recognizance.

Senator Jim Webb's assistant was arrested for carrying a loaded, unregistered weapon into the Russell Senate Office Building today:

Kimberly Schneider, a spokeswoman for the police, said the aide worked for Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va. He entered the building at 10:50 a.m., she said, and was in possession of an unregistered firearm.

The aide also had two additional loaded clips according to the accompanying video. Drudge is reporting that his sources say it was the senator's gun and the aide was holding it for him. The DC Examiner has more:

The aide was dispatched to the Virginia Democrat's car to retrieve a bag, the source said. When the aide passed the bag through the scanners of the Russell Senate Office Building, police discovered a loaded handgun and two loaded magazines, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

This brings up a few questions: why would the Senator (or his aide) carry a gun to his office? Second, why did he have more additional clips than Jack Bauer carries?

The Senate has had its share of high-profile first-timers. In 2001, it was Hillary Clinton. In 2005, it was Barack Obama. Now it's Jim Webb's turn to take the stage.

Webb, who squeaked past George Allen in a Virginia Senate race last year, will give the official Democratic response to President Bush's State of the Union address next Tuesday.

Late last November, Webb made headlines with a feisty exchange with the president. Wonder if he'll be as confrontational next week?

Jim Webb, the new Democrat Senator from Virginia, had a little run-in with President Bush the other day. While applauded in this forum by some, I'm applauding him for another reason - Jim Webb, as a Presidential aspirant-killer that will be front and center in the new Senate, is going to give me an awful lot of great material to write about for the next few years.

What Webb's ego will not allow him to do is realize that his victory was the result not of voter infatuation with him, but general anti-Republican feelings coupled with a horrible Allen campaign and sustained attacks by the Washington Post. Click for more:

So long, George. And Conrad, for that matter.

In a press conference held moments ago, George Allen concedes the Virginia Senate race and congratulates Jim Webb. Flanked by his wife and daughter, plus Virginia's senior senator John Warner, an upbeat Warner pledges to do what he can to aid the transition.

And what about that recount? In one of several obligatory football references, Allen calls himself and Webb the "49ers" -- since they both have 49-point-something percent of the vote -- and says he'd have the legal right to call for one. But Allen isn't going that route, saying it would mean a lot of cost and trouble that would drag on until Christmas.

As for Webb, he's due up soon to declare victory. Again. MSNBC just ran a telling shot of a Webb campaign truck being packed up with furniture that will head up to Capitol Hill in the not-too-distant future. What a change for the onetime longshot of longshots.

Did Allen do the right thing? Should he have kept up the fight?

For all of us who haven't had much sleep over the last 36 hours, AP has done us the courtesy of making a call.

And that call would be? That Jim Webb is the projected winner in Virginia. And consequently, that the Dems will control both chambers of Congress, come this January.

The current vote tally has just over 7,200 votes separating Webb from George Allen. And Allen has recount options that he is mulling. So, it's not necessarily over.

But for the moment, we'll say thanks AP and congrats Dems. And we'll see what happens next.

"The votes are in and we won," Jim Webb said this morning. Heck, not only has he declared victory, he's already assembling a transition team! Officials from both sides are canvassing polling places across Virginia, trying to account for every last vote. The margin of difference could be under 7,000 ballots. But Webb's campaign says don't expect shades of Florida '00.

As a practical matter, "the vote's been counted and Jim won," said Webb spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd.

"This isn't hanging chads or anything like that. I don't think the voters will like it if the Allen camp tries to make this into a hanging chad situation because it's not the same thing," she said.

George Allen isn't close to conceding defeat though. His campaign says the senator will wait for a full accounting of the Virginia vote.

Frist was leaving anyway to run for president (good luck with that by the way, Casper) but we will soon be saying howdy to Battlin' Harry Reid. All the machinations and horse trading that was going on behind the scenes for the new Republican majority leader is moot.

Why? Think there are going to be recounts in Montana and Virginia? Not so fast. Let's review the rules shall we? In Montana, a recount is possible if the total is within 1/4 of one percent. There were 404,084 votes. 1/4 of one percent of that would be 1,010 votes. As of today, Tester has a 2, 848 vote lead. Even though Conrad 'Jack' Burns will piss and moan, he probably facilitated the rule of 1/4 of 1 percent as an incumbent protection program. Besides, he certainly thinks others should not go for recounts. In any event, rules are rules so say hello to Sen. Tester who looks like he's from the real Montana.