The latest Quinnipiac release is a good explanation for Rudy's lead in the race for the GOP nomination despite his well known liberal views in several areas. Simply put, he's a sure bet in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

• Florida: Rudy Giuliani leads Hillary Clinton 49 - 41 percent, compared to 50 - 40 percent in an April 2 poll. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 43 percent.
• Ohio: Giuliani leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, compared to March 22 when Clinton was up 46 - 43 percent. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 39 percent.
• Pennsylvania: Giuliani leads Clinton 47 - 43 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent March 29. Al Gore ties Giuliani 44 - 44 percent.

John McCain doesn't do nearly so well and would only narrowly edge out Clinton in these states and between a hypothetical McCain-Barack Obama match-up, would lose Pennsylvania and tie Ohio.

In 2008 the Republicans will go a long way toward a candidate who doesn't match their views if he has the right positions on key issues like terrorism and Iraq and if the candidate can win the general election.

From time to time I've given Rudy Giuliani a hard time on this blog for a variety of stances that my former mayor has taken of late. Today, I happen to agree with him. But boy, oh boy, the conservative wing of the GOP is not going to be happy about what Mr. Giuliani said in his interview with blow-hard Glenn Beck .

GLENN: Right. But isn't illegal immigration a crime in and of itself?

GIULIANI: No.

GLENN: Aren't you saying--

GIULIANI: Glenn--

GLENN: You're protecting criminals by saying that being treated as a criminal is unfair.

GIULIANI: Glenn, it's not a crime. I know that's very hard for people to understand, but it's not a federal crime.

GLENN: It's a misdemeanor but if you've been nailed, it is a crime. If you've been nailed, ship back and come back, it is a crime.

GIULIANI: Glenn, being an illegal immigrant, the 400,000 were not prosecuted for crimes by the federal government, nor could they be. I was U.S. attorney in the southern district of New York. So believe me, I know this. In fact, when you throw an immigrant out of the country, it's not a criminal proceeding. It's a civil proceeding.

GLENN: It is--

GIULIANI: One of the things that congress wanted to do a year ago is make it a crime, which indicates that it isn't.

GLENN: Should it be?

GIULIANI: Should it be? No, it shouldn't be because the government wouldn't be able to prosecute it. We couldn't prosecute 12 million people.

Waiting for the YouTube file to add to this, but I'm happy to hear a GOP candidate talk some sense about immigration. And how, do you suppose, the base will respond to Rudy saying that we shouldn't make crossing the border a federal crime?

For better or worse, Rudy is sticking with his positions. That's probably the wisest course, as a sudden conversion now would be nothing less than crass opportunism, given his record.

Giuliani's positions on abortion, gun control and gay rights are very moderate by Republican standards and some political analysts have said he cannot be nominated because of them. But Giuliani said in the interview he would not change.

"I am not going to change who I am," he said. "I think that would be a terrible mistake. Better off you vote against me than I change who I am. Because then I couldn't be an effective president."

Giuliani also said being attacked was nothing new to him.

As I've said before, these aren't his biggest problems, but they flaired up this week when Rudy seemed to say that he would support public funding for Abortion and his judges could go either way on Roe. That broke the tacit agreement with social conservatives in the GOP who thought they had a deal with Rudy: You can believe what you want, as long as you don't upset the status quo as president and give us the judges we want.

A Siena Poll out for a couple of days now has some interesting information on how a Giuliani-Clinton would match up in their home states.

In a possible head-to-head general election matchup, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton led Giuliani, 52 percent to 39 percent, among voters statewide. An April poll from Siena had Clinton with a much smaller lead, 48 percent to 43 percent.

Giuliani's favorable rating with all voters statewide was 51 percent, down from 63 percent in January of this year.

The former mayor's favorable rating in New York City was just 44 percent. Fifty-two percent of city voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of Giuliani.

``He has a better chance of being elected president or governor than re-elected mayor,'' quipped Siena poll spokesman Steven Greenberg.

It's a little more complicated than that of course. Rudy could easily convince New Yorkers to elect him as mayor. Far harder would be convincing those same folks to vote for him as president. Different rules apply at different levels.

Some interesting items from the Washington Post/ABC News Poll:

Giuliani's frontrunner status is fueled by a broad-based perception that he is the party's most electable candidate.
Nearly half of Republicans believe Giuliani is their party's best chance of winning in November 2008; that is three or four times higher than the percentage mentioning other candidates. Democrats and independents also said Giuliani would represent the Republicans' best shot at holding onto the White House.

Yep, if Rudy Giuliani somehow lost his perception of electability, he would be down there with Ron Paul faster than a New York minute. But the electability is there, it's real, and the Republicans have lost the House and Senate. Do they really want to risk losing the presidency as well? If not, go Rudy.

At 16 percent, McCain is at his lowest point of the campaign after a month in which he reported that his campaign was nearly out of money and his campaign manager, chief strategist, finance director and communications director -- among others -- announced their resignations.

It's probably worse than that, but the trend is more important than the number here. And the trend is down.

The first paragraph in this NY Times article about Larry King's interview with Rudy Giuliani is something we already knew. Rudy is running for president, surprise, surprise. But the interesting thing in that same article came out when he was asked what he thought about the way the Iraq war has been run.

On the issue that looms largest over the campaign, Iraq, Mr. Giuliani used the interview to offer a harsh assessment of the Bush administration's decision-making. His comments more closely aligned him with his chief rival in Republican primary polls, Senator John McCain of Arizona, who has supported the war, as Mr. Giuliani does, but has criticized its conduct.

"I would remove Saddam Hussein again," Mr. Giuliani said. "I just hope we'd do it better and we'd do it in a different way."

Most important, he added, the United States, which has had 120,000 to 160,000 troops at a time in Iraq, should have gone in with "maybe 100,000 to 130,000 more."

The NYT then goes on to point out that Giuliani has spent a lot of time campaigning for the GOP in support of the war and has praised GWB for being decisive.

So the question is if this is all a little opportunistic on the part of Rudy. After all the Iraq war is not exactly polling well right now and Bush's popularity is right up there with lawyers and the mainstream media. Seems like a good time to back away, no?

My colleague Nix wrote this morning about the L.A. Times poll that showed Fred Thompson in second behind Rudy Giuliani. Today, Rasmussen reports that the as yet undeclared candidate is now tied for the lead:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican Presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds each man earning support from 24% of likely Republican Primary voters. A week ago, Giuliani had a six percentage point lead over Thompson, 23% to 17%.

This is the first poll to show Thompson in the top spot. He's been consistently picking off supporters from John McCain (who is having fundraising difficulties of late) in the wake of the immigration bill debacle and has probably been bringing in those who were undecided and most-likely would have voted for Mitt Romney.

Expect the announcement that Thompson is running on Independence Day and the immediate groundswell will put him comfortably in the lead. I predict that Giuliani will still poll strongly with all but social conservatives. He'll remain in a good position to run as vice president with Thompson in the top spot. A Thompson/Giuliani ticket would be hard to beat and I suspect the Democrats know as much. There is no comparable ticket on the Dem side, including Hillary/Obama.

Thompson is a conservative -- both fiscally and on most social issues. Giuliani is a proven leader who will appeal to social moderates and temper the charges that will surely be tossed Thompson's way. They are both right on the immigration issue and both believe in a strong national defense. More importantly, they will both be very effective during the debates as Rudy has shown just how well he thinks on his feet. A Hillary/Fred Thompson debate is the dream match up of ideas and ideology. I believe Hillary will get beat badly when it comes to arguing conservative and liberal ideals.

An article in today's New York Newsday sheds some light on Rudy Giuliani's service to the country. Giuliani, you'll remember, believes it unthinkable that you could fight the "war on terror" without toppling Saddam Hussein's government. So you might think that a spot on the Iraq Study Group would have been something he'd be excited about. Evidently not:

Rudolf Giuliani's membership on an elite Iraqi study panel came to an abrupt end last spring after he failed to show up for a single official meeting of the group, causing the panel's top Republican to give him a stark choice: either attend the meetings or quit, several sources said.

Why did Giuliani renege on his commitment to the ISG?

He cited "previous time commitments" in a letter explaining his decision to quit, and a look at his schedule suggests why -- the sessions at times conflicted with Giuliani's lucrative speaking tour that garnered him $11.4 million in 14 months.

Ah yes. Ask not what you can do for your country. Instead, ask what your country's tragedy can do for you! This is the same man, mind you, who blathers on about how electing a Democrat will make the country less safe, and he couldn't be bothered to participate on the daunting matter of how to try and fix Iraq?

In recent weeks, Rudy Giuliani has gone from a forgotten man to the GOP candidate who is front and center. Giuliani's campaign has become revitalized by the continued dickering of Fred Thompson, and a concerted internal effort to show that Giuliani is tough and has some vision.

The Democrats have definitely taken notice. Yesterday, John Edwards called Rudy "George Bush on steroids" (and Edwards on steroids would be John Kerry, but I digress), and the house organ for the Democrats, the New York Times, is running a hit piece in which they explore his relationship with Fox News leader Roger Ailes. Vanity Fair is also attacking Rudy, but from the angle of portraying his wife as an out-of-touch snob.

Recent polling numbers show that Giuliani has increased his lead to 9-percentage points on average against Fred Thompson and appears to be gaining momentum. Although the latest Rasmussen has him down one to Thompson, the latest NBC/WSJ has him up 13%.

All of this is good for Rudy's campaign, even hit pieces mean exposure and the majority of Americans have a good feeling about him, even with his dirty laundry being aired. Ironically, twenty years ago, a man who was divorced or unfaithful to his wife didn't have a chance to be President (case in point: Gary Hart). Now, however, a man's marital history is not as important. That was put to bed, so to speak, by Bill Clinton's antics in the Oval Office. This metamorphosis has had the effect of helping both Giuliani and Thompson and it's all thanks to Bubba.

Rudy's plan for winning the nomination appears to have gone public. It seems that a staffer of a Giuliani rival got his hands on Rudy's Top-Secret Battle Plans and then leaked them to the NY Daily News.

Among the highlights:

The remarkably detailed dossier sets out the budgets, schedules and fund-raising plans that will underpin the former New York mayor's presidential campaign - as well as his aides' worries that personal and political baggage could scuttle his run.

At the center of his efforts: a massive fund-raising push to bring in at least $100 million this year, with a scramble for at least $25 million in the next three months alone.

...

On the same page is a list of the candidate's central problems in bullet-point form: his private sector business; disgraced former aide Bernard Kerik; his third wife, Judith Nathan Giuliani; "social issues," on which is he is more liberal than most Republicans, and his former wife Donna Hanover.

Rudy's had a rough couple of weeks and has made some unforced errors concerning abortion. It's to be expected as everything can't go Rudy's way all the time, especially if he puts the knife in his own back. But back to the basics, Dan Gerstein at the New York Post has a good column today on why Rudy is running strong. I'm going to use it as a launching pad for a point about Rudy that often gets overlooked. Here's what Gerstein says about Rudy and 9/11:

But liberals' big error here is to dramatically discount the long-term political impact of 9/11. They just don't see how the terrorist attacks of that day, and the ongoing threat of jihadism, have transformed millions of Americans (especially on the right) into security-first voters. This is the pre-eminent, transcendent issue for this generation of conservatives, and Rudy's credentials are saint-like.

...

One of Giuliani's considerable advantages, much like Reagan, is the president he would replace. Many voters saw Reagan's strength and clarity as welcome antidotes to Jimmy Carter's weakness and malaise. To today's Republicans, Giuliani offers the same tough-on-terror leadership that has bonded conservatives to President Bush. But he also comes with an impressive record as a governmental CEO - a stark contrast to Bush's bungling on Iraq and Katrina.

At first the unfortunate subheadline (Rudy and 9/11 will beat all) led me to think that Gerstein was trotting out the tired old saw that Rudy's performance in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks is what is pushing him to the top.

Yesterday, in Cincinnati, Rudy Giuliani made the following statement:

"I was at ground zero as often, if not more, than most of the workers. ...I was there working with them. I was exposed to exactly the same things they were exposed to. So in that sense, I'm one of them."

Well, it seems that many of the rescue workers would beg to differ. So too would a great number of firefighters. In fact, the International Association of Fire Fighters, New York's largest firefighters union, has produced the following video to better inform the public as to their view on America's Mayor and his performance before and during the aftermath of 9/11.

Big pickup for the Giuliani team yesterday:

Fiscal conservative Steve Forbes on Wednesday endorsed former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid to become the Republican nominee for president in the 2008 race for the White House.

Forbes, chief executive of Forbes magazine who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination in 1996 and 2000, is considered a leader of the party's pro-business and tax-cutting wings.

"He is the man who can lead America in a world that is uncertain, fight the forces of evil and at the same time increase economic opportunity here at home," Forbes told a press conference.

Steve "flat tax" Forbes is best known for a surprisingly strong showing in the 1996 campaign in the GOP nomination. He is best known for his daring proposals for the flat tax, health savings accounts, and fiscal discipline. He is the a good spokesperson for the economic conservative wing of the Republican party. With the social conservatives apparently split between McCain, Romney and Giuliani (or waiting for Thompson), the economic conservatives are a huge swing group.

Rudy has a shot at capturing these folks who are the more libertarian wing of the party. If he does he will be in an even stronger position. The other nice thing for Rudy about this group is that this is the group that includes the business side of the Republican party and among their other attributes, they have a lot of the money

There is much to say about Rudy Giuliani and his relationship with firefighters and first responders. And Rudy himself is proud of the support he receives from South Carolina's firefighters, according to his Web site. Yes, you read it right. It's is South Carolina's firefighters who voiced the support, and not the New Yorker firefighters.

Just last week Rudy was criticized for not attending the firefighters gathering this upcoming Wednesday. Many presidential hopefuls will be attending according to " The International Association of Fire Fighters union " which backed Kerry in the last election. At first I thought Rudy surely would meet with them if he could and trusted his schedule conflict as a possible explanation. According to this blog, the IAFF did not initially invite Rudy themselves. They cite this reason.

The fundamental lack of respect that Giuliani showed our FDNY members is unforgivable - and that's why he was not invited. Our disdain for him is not about issues or a disputed contract, it is about a visceral, personal affront to the fallen, to our union and, indeed, to every one of us who has ever risked our lives by going into a burning building to save lives and property.

And I understand the firefighters point of view as Rudy ordered the arrest of fifteen firefighters. I agree with the firefighters that you shouldn't leave a fallen comrade behind. I also understand Rudy for not wanting to attend the upcoming meeting. Nobody wants to attend a conference where they are not welcomed. But even though I don't blame him, I must say it will hurt him in the long run not facing the tough questions.

Rudy Giuliani, former New York City mayor and current presidential aspirant, may have unwittingly given Larry Craig a vote of confidence for staying in the Senate.

Responding to a question about his private life during last week's GOP debate, Giuliani said, "I certainly haven't lived a perfect life. I am not running as the perfect candidate for president of the United States. I'm running as a human being who has been very successful as a leader and had definable results in a situation in which people thought it was impossible to accomplish these things."

If we delete the presidential reference and substitute one for the Senate, could not the substance of that statement apply to Craig? If so, Giuliani has given grist for hungry rivals. For his words contrast with what was said earlier in the debate.

"We should be bolder about standing up for family," Kansas' Sen. Sam Brownback said. "Family's important for us, and it's important for America ."

"When our guys have problems like this, they leave," Rep. Duncan Hunter of Texas said. "They leave the Senate or they leave the House. When the Democrats have problems like this, they often make them chairmen of their respective committees."

The "family values" opening is available for any Republican ruthless enough to use it. Paging Mitt Romney...