The economic populists argue that the trade agreements themselves are the problem. They cite several studies showing that more jobs shifted to Mexico as a result of Nafta than were created in the United States to serve the Mexican market.

"I don't see Congress passing any bilateral trade agreement that does not have strong labor and environmental standards written into it," Representative Sherrod Brown of Ohio, a Democrat just elected to the Senate, said in an interview last week.

Michael J. Fox campaigns for Sherrod Brown on the stem cell issue:

Campaign 2006 brings in a big name for a Democrat who wants to be a U.S. Senator. Actor Michael J. Fox came to Ohio State on Monday, urging people to vote for Sherrod Brown. That's because Brown supports something dear to Fox's heart: more funding for embryonic stem cell research.

Michael J. Fox has had Parkinson's for 15 years. It's just one of the many diseases that scientists believe embryonic stem cell research can help in dissecting and perhaps even one day, curing.

"This is a coming home for me. Columbus is home of Alex Keaton and the Keatons of Ohio," Fox said.

Despite Ohio's toxic environment, this race never should have gotten to this point. In June and July, DeWine should have been running ads telling everyone that Brown votes like Dennis Kucinich and he could have defined him to the voters, but he didn't. Instead he was running ads touting the fact he brought in funds for firefighters - which is great, but it isn't an ad that works in 2006. I can't tell you how many times (many) over the years I have sent a letter or email to the DeWine offices. I can tell you how many times I have gotten a response, even a form letter - 1. I doubt I am the only one. DeWine never thought he would have to fight hard for his seat, and when he finally realized it, it was too late. I have to admit I was caught a bit off guard here as well. Many Republican voters just aren't as forgiving as me I suppose, as he is not well liked by the base here. DeWine never had a tough race for the Senate - he had a weak opponent in both 1994 and 2000. Come January, Ohio will have a new Democratic Senator that brings flashbacks of Howard Metzenbaum and it could have and should have been prevented. I actually am seeing Brown winning by more in Ohio than Casey in PA at this point. We will be coming for you in 2012, Senator Brown.

A friend was back from Ohio yesterday, and I've been thinking about what role the Buckeye State barometer will mean for national politics these days.

So far, the most notable Ohioan out there in the presidential race is anti-war Democratic gadfly Dennis Kucinich. He shows us that the Midwest maligned by Easterners like myself actually has a liberal side. I guess the 2004 presidential election proved this: Even though Dubya won the state, John Kerry did well in urban areas. So, if even the Midwest is trending left, that's a good sign for Democrats.

Yet while liberal Ohioans like Kucinich, new Sen. Sherrod Brown, and new Gov. Ted Strickland are enjoying rising fortunes, though, don't expect the religious right in the state to roll over. After all, powerful Pentecostal pastor Rod Parsley, of the World Harvest Church outside Columbus, has come out with a new book, "Culturally Incorrect," which is on the best-seller list of the newspaper he loves to hate, the New York Times.

I was highly suspicious of this CBS/NYT Poll of Ohio when I first read the numbers.

DeWine trails Brown 34-48? Blackwell is down in the high twenties? Goodness gracious I know the GOP is a bunch of losers but I didn't know how bad.

Relax, fellow Republicans, this poll is not only way out of whack compared to other recent polling, if you look at their methodology you can see why.

"This poll was conducted among a statewide random sample of 1164 adults in Ohio, interviewed by telephone October 11-15, 2006. The sample included 1020 registered voters. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points and plus or minus three points among registered voters. Each registered voter is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters. The effective number of likely voters is 689. The error due to sampling for likely voters could be plus or minus four points."

Senator-Elect Sherrod Brown (D-OH) went from being in a dead heat against incumbent Mike DeWine to winning in a walk. And he has some advice for any Presidential candidates who want to win Ohio:

[A]nybody that runs for the president will have to go through Ohio, literally and figuratively. The Democrats need to nominate somebody that will be an economic populist, that will stand up for the middle class, that doesn't just want to increase the minimum wage but somebody that will work to put the government on the side of working families. And that means different trade policy, standing up to the drug industry, taking on the oil industry. It means showing that the Democratic Party is a progressive, populist party.

When Brown talks, folks should listen. His campaign manager, John Ryan, recently went through the campaign's middle class message and the impact it had in Ohio. The results were clear: Brown made his strongest gains over Kerry's performance in Ohio's reddest counties. These are rural counties, working-class counties, counties where Democrats can win on an economic message that speaks to these voters concerns. A candidate who can move numbers in these counties like Brown won't just win Ohio -- and the Presidency -- in all likelihood, they'll strengthen Democratic performance in red states all over the country -- running a Presidential campaign that is finally a way of building the party rather than draining it.

Senators and lobbyists are putting the final touches on a comprehensive immigration-reform bill that includes an easier citizenship path for illegal aliens and weaker enforcement provisions than were in the highly criticized legislation that the Senate approved last year.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat who ardently supports citizenship rights for illegals, will introduce the bill as early as next week, according to Senate sources knowledgeable about the negotiations. If the Senate Judiciary Committee can make quick work of the bill, it could be ready for floor action in April.

As a resident of California, where our Senate race is a gimme (Democrat Feinstein), it's been fun to follow the other key races as an outsider who can't affect the outcome. One of the more interesting sources I have found is The Fix by Chris Cillizza.

Every Friday he blogs for the Washington Post and addresses all sorts of politically relevant issues. This week he wrote about key House races, but last week it was the key Senate Races. According to The Fix, those races (as of a week ago), show the Senate landscape shifting towards the Democrats. His analysis is as follows:

• Washington - Republican Mike McGavick's "free-fall" following his mishandling of a past drunk driving arrest had ended, but the damage was done. Two recent polls showed Democrat Maria Cantwell leading McGavick by 9 and 10 points.
• Maryland - Republican Michael Steele continued to impress with his unorthodox ad campaign, but his central problem is his stance as a long-time supporter of George W. Bush. Polling showed the democratic candidate, Ben Cardin, with a mid single digit lead. Steele's chances hinge on an improvement in the national political climate, a change seen as increasingly unlikely.
• Virginia - A new Mason-Dixon poll showed Republican George Allen and Democrat James Webb tied at 43 percent -- a stunning reversal for Mr. Allen, who started the year running for president in 2008. A key to the outcome may be whether the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee or the National Republican Senatorial Committee weighs in with television ads between now and November 7th.

• Base Energy. The left wing base of the Democratic party loves Hackett and we're fired up over his taking on Jean Schmidt and very much wanted him to keep going in Ohio politics. When the Democratic party fired him, the left-wing blogs in Ohio were very, very upset. Sherrod Brown has made up some of this.
  
• Iraq War Veteran: Hackett was not vulnerable on terrorism and Iraq in a way that the mainstream liberal very much is.
• Wit and Speaking ability: A key part of Hacketts ability was his very good TV and speaking presence. Hackett is telegenic and a great speaker, far better than DeWine.

Zogby shows that Mike DeWine and Sherrod Brown are tied 41-41. Rasmussen also came out yesterday and said Sherrod was up 49-41.

But on Sunday the Plain Dealer Mason-Dixon poll came out and said no, it was 45-43 in favor of Sherrod.

Rasmussen has been all over the place on this and the Strickland/Blackwell polling. Throwing out Rasmussen we have two very reputable polls saying it's a tie game.

DeWine has so far stayed above the fray and is not being tagged with the general problems the GOP is having this year. His money advantage and stand on terrorism will be big advantages against liberal Sherrod Brown. I see DeWine continuing to slide ahead and ending up about 5 points ahead just before and on election day.

To keep up on polling I check on the very good site realclearpolitics and new this year pollster.com.

McCain, who attended a private fundraiser with Ohio GOP leaders Friday, said he plans a formal announcement of his presidential candidacy in March and that DeWine will head the campaign in Ohio.

DeWine, who lost his race for a third term in the Senate to Democrat Sherrod Brown in November, supported McCain over George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential primary.

"Mike is one of my dearest friends, and I campaigned for him a lot in this state last fall," McCain said.

The GOP sources, who spoke with The Dispatch on condition of anonymity, said they repeatedly urged DeWine to adopt a tougher approach to throw Brown on the defensive. But they said Dawson, who has played a major supporting role in the Republican dominance of Ohio during the past decade, has opposed a more aggressive advertising campaign.

"A lot of us believe that Sherrod Brown has some fundamental flaws (in his voting record)," said one prominent Republican in Washington. "Instead of going after those flaws and standing up in a forceful way, this has been a campaign curled in a ball and sucking its thumb."

The same source said that Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman, who met with DeWine last week in Columbus, and other senior party officials told the senator that he needed to "listen to your own people who are harder and stop listening to people who are softer. If you don't do that, the money is going to go away."