But the big news tonight is that another Thompson appears to be actually entering the race. Tommy Thompson has done some bits in Iowa and is now making a New Hampshire move:

Thompson has hired Meridian Communications, a New Hampshire-based political consulting firm, to set up an organization in the state.

Last year Meridian managed the ill-fated campaign of Jim Coburn, who lost to Governor John Lynch by the widest margin ever in a gubernatorial race in New Hampshire.

Which tells us a couple of things. One is that Thompson is seriously thinking about running, and two is that all the good media firms are already taken. Losers get the scraps. Of course it may not be Meridian's fault either, it just isn't the sort of thing I'd have on my letterhead.

I'm much more excited about Tommy Thompson entering than Fred. Thompson has the right kind of experience for a successful presidential bid, as it's much easier to run from a governor position than from the senate. As governor Thompson has led the way in welfare and education reform and won re-election three times with impressive majorities.

Fred Thompson is from Tennessee which is already a Republican lock. Tommy Thompson would take Wisconsin away from the Democrats and threaten Iowa and Minnesota. He doesn't quite have the gravitas of Fred Thompson But I believe makes up for it in experience.

But the biggest problem is that he starts way behind in an already crowded field.

The latest USA Today poll has Thompson at 12% with no organization and no intention of running (at this point). That's pretty darn impressive. Frank Newport dissects the results:

Thompson now gets getting 12% of the GOP vote. At the same time, Rudy Giuliani is down 13 points, and Mitt Romney has sunk from 8% to 3%.

Given that John McCain comes in at 22% -- little changed -- Thompson is suddenly in third place among Republicans.

We're doing some research now to find out what people think about Fred Thompson in more detail. It's hard to imagine that Republicans have a finely-tuned understanding of his positions on the issues and so forth. But a Republican candidate like Duncan Hunter would probably yearn for 12% of the GOP vote at this point -- no matter what its origin.

I continue to believe despite this that Thompson if (still a big if) enters he will make it a two-way race between Giuliani and Thompson, pushing McCain into third place and Romney into the dust. The above appears to support that. Romney at 3%? Ouch!

Realclearpolitics is recording a significant dip for both Giuliani and McCain, this has to be attributable to Fred Thompson. But Pollster.com is steady so far, with things looking good for Rudy and bad for McCain.

Oh, and I know we are 19 months out, no tasers please!

There's been a great deal of anticipation for Fred Thompson to get into the presidential race for 2008. But while waiting for his decision is causing excitement among conservatives, is it also creating problems?

In assessing the decisions of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to skip the Iowa straw poll on Aug. 11, Pat Buchanan extends his analysis to Thompson, who will also not be participating in the poll.

"Writing off Iowa makes sense for Thompson," Buchanan writes. "For it is hard to see how he could make up for the lost six months he has already ceded to the other candidates in organizing the state. Most Iowa political activists have already committed to other candidates."

In April, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reported that among the predictions from former (Bill) Clinton strategist James Carville was that "The current Republican field is so notably lackluster – 'Rudy Giuliani has been married more times than Mitt Romney's been hunting' -- that the party will turn to someone not even in the field yet. And 'the only person I can figure is Jeb Bush.'"

Or Thompson. But can anticipation trump organization? We'll see...

The most recent Rasmussen Poll gives Fred Thompson a solid lead over Rudy Giuliani. Fred is receiving support from 26% of the voters and Rudy's support has dropped to 21%. For Rudy, it was nice while it lasted. Even for the believers, it must have been hard to imagine that a conservative party could ever nominate somebody as liberal as Rudy.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the pack, John McCain still was able to achieve double digit success. He dropped to a new low of 10%. It's over John.

The appeal of Fred Thompson as a candidate will be huge and the Democrats know it. They've launched a pre-announcement salvo at Thompson's non-campaign campaign:

Democratic strategists say Thompson's populist style and show-biz allure could prove extremely appealing in a general election at a time when voters are so down on Washington. So the party has launched a preemptive campaign against him that includes a DNC fundraising e-mail branding Thompson, "The inside-outsider."

The gist of the Dem attack will be that Thompson is an insider who tries to portray himself as an outsider. They also are hitting him for his lack of legislation pushed through when he was a senator from Tennessee.

On the "outsider" issue: Thompson has not been in Washington in several years except to assist with the vetting of Supreme Court nominees. As far as I've read, he had no contacts worth mentioning with Jack Abramoff and Randy "Duke" Cunningham. As for Thompson's lack of bill introduction, Hillary Clinton has not exactly been a legislative machine while serving in the Senate and has more skeletons in her closet than Thompson. And Barack Obama is still too green to even level the charge.

US News reports yesterday on Fred Thompson and the religious right.

The success of the effort is by no means ensured; in March, Focus on the Family's James Dobson told U.S. News that he doubted Thompson was really a Christian. But Dobson and Thompson have since talked, with Dobson rumored to be reassessing Thompson. And prominent social conservative Paul Weyrich, who met recently with Thompson and evangelical activists, said the former senator "was in agreement with us on almost everything."

For Thompson, the timing couldn't be better. McCain's campaign is reeling from staff departures and cutbacks, and Giuliani faces fierce opposition from Christian right leaders. So Thompson's team is betting that the GOP primaries will turn into what one adviser calls a "Thompson-Romney duel," since Romney is the one top-tier Republican lobbying hard for evangelical support. "If he gets strong support from evangelicals, Thompson could reshape the race," says the Pew Forum for Religion and Public Life's John Green.

The writing is on the wall for anyone doubting it. Fred Thompson will be the religious right candidate, followed by Mike Huckabee. Huckabee's a nice guy and his positions on just about everything are perfect for the religious right. His background isn't shabby either. What's killing Huckabee is electability. And the Republicans right now are very, very nervous about losing all three branches of government after 2008. Huckabee has not shown that he can play nationally. That's too bad because Huckabee is a good candidate and I hope this isn't the end of his national career. But mark the words, he's not going anywhere this cycle.

Thanks to this post at ElephantBiz, it's now obvious that all current GOP candidates will blow away and Fred Thompson will step in to save the day.

OK it's not that obvious, but there are many admirers of the former senator from Tennessee, including this Web site.

Hotline on Call quotes the WH Bulletin:

Thompson, the former Tennessee Republican senator who's now a Law & Order prosecutor and regular replacement for radio host Paul Harvey, is being urged by supporters to consider entering the presidential race, according to associates. "The draft Fred movement is growing," says one ally. They say that Thompson is flattered by the suggestions, but it is unclear if he is turning away their appeals. The effort is growing among conservative blogs, where several boards are pushing the folksy straight-talker to get in.

But then throws cold water all over the idea:

Most importantly, Sen. John McCain is one of Thompson's best friends. They talk regularly. A source close to Thompson said that Thompson will not run for president, period.

But what if McCain faded?

It's an auspicious day for Fred Thompson supporters. Rasmussen has added him to their tracking poll.

The addition of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R) to the list of candidates shakes up the race for the GOP Presidential nomination.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support dips below the 30% mark for the first time in seven weeks. With Thompson in the mix, Giuliani's support tumbles to 26%, down nine points from a week ago. That's the lowest level of support measured for Giuliani in any Rasmussen Reports poll this year.

Support for Arizona Senator John McCain remains steady at 16%, but McCain's hold on second place is threatened by Thompson. The movie star turned Senator turned TV star weighs in with 14% support among those likely to vote in a GOP primary. Among Very Conservative voters, Giuliani attracts 20% support followed closely by Thompson at 19%, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18% and McCain at 14%. (More Below)

A local Nashville, Tenn. paper is reporting that private investigators are doing some opposition research on actor/Former Senator Fred Thompson, who may be running for the GOP presidential nomination:

Nashville law circles were abuzz last week about professional snoops – either private investigators or opposition research political types - combing public records in Metro buildings looking for potential dirt on Thompson. Property records seemed to be at the top of their list.

The word trickled up to Republican Party sources, who insist it is Thompson's potential GOP primary opponents looking for ammo to use should the television star make the race.

Thompson running is a lock, according to GOP sources in the state who know him well. In fact, leading Tennessee Republicans surmise Thompson staying away from actively campaigning and being selective with media appearances is another sign he is going to get in the White House 2008 race.

As noted, the most likely instigator is the John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and/or Mitt Romney campaigns as they have the most to lose right now from a Thompson candidacy. Fred Thompson is running a strong 10-15% without an announcement, and I would have to believe he would double that with a declared intent to run, which pushes him immediately to first or strong 2nd place.

Related Blog Posts on 'The Stump':
· Latest GOP Presidential Straw Poll
· Fred Thompson Meets with House Members
· Fred Thompson: Law & Order and Equal Time

It seems every day or every other day there's a new Fred Thompson story out, so why should today be any different?
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But this story from the Politico's Mike Allen has a bit more for the Thompson feeding frenzy faithful:

Thompson has not made a final decision but is on track to be ready to announce his candidacy in June or July, his advisers say. Thompson has already been polling better than some of the announced GOP candidates, and his entry would shake up a field that has left many Republican faithful dissatisfied.

Got that? He's "on track" to "be ready" to announce. So there's still plenty of weasel words in there, but it's looking more and more like this is a definite go. The fact is that Thompson could be shutting down all this talk if he wanted to and so clearly he doesn't.

OK, maybe.

This is a suprise to me.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson said Wednesday he intends to form a committee to explore a possible run for the White House in 2008.

"I intend to do so after the first of the year," Thompson said in reference to creating an exploratory committee.

Thompson served as Health and Human Services Secretary during President Bush's first term. The Republican was in Iowa, where he met with about 100 members of a group called Iowans for Wellness and Prevention.

But it makes sense. Despite all the publicity around Giuliani and McCain, the reality is that the presidential race is completely open and there is widespread dissatisfaction around those two. This dissatisfaction mainly stems from a reaction of "that's it?".

It appears as though Fred Thompson is pleased with the response to his potential candidacy:

"It's pretty clear that Fred is going to be leaving the cast of the show no matter what," Reilly said at a news conference on NBC's fall schedule.

He later left the door slightly ajar by saying it was "highly unlikely" Thompson would be back. Thompson certainly wouldn't return to prime-time network television if he chooses to run, he said.

I can't think of any reason short of running for president that Thompson would leave the show.

I would expect him to hold out for a while longer while he continues his work at ABC Radio and other media outlets. Once he joins the race, he'll have to resign those jobs to avoid the screaming of equal time from the other candidates.

I read with interest NixGuy's post earlier this morning on Fred Thompson's post-announcement bump, and then took a more careful look at the polls he referenced. As I've explained before, I tend to like Rasmussen the most, since their accuracy over the past few election cycles has been better than any of the others. But the latest Gallup intrigued me, since it was solely a Republican poll -- so I didn't have to worry about weighting. This particular Gallup poll still has Rudy Giuliani up 7 points over Fred Thompson among those who are most likely to vote in the Republican primaries (33%-26%), but the underlying numbers suggest that Thompson has a much greater upside potential than does the former mayor of New York.

In short, the poll shows that Giuliani and John McCain's support levels have remained constant over the last few months. Mitt Romney came back down to his more or less constant level after a slight jump after the Iowa Straw Polls. The new "official" candidate in the mix is Senator Thompson. Since Gallup has included his name in their polling questions since it became apparent that he was serious about entering the race, his polling numbers have remained within a four point range. But the surprising figures from Gallup are those that show there are still an awful lot of voters out there who don't know enough about him for them to decide whether or not to support him.

Key data points from the latest article in The Politico:

• Thompson is going to talk to some OC people
• Had Lunch with Ed Gillespie (Former Republican National Committee chairman)
• Meeting House Republicans April 18th.
• And they are trying out a campaign theme:
  

If Thompson runs, he's likely to stress his willingness to take on the biggest issues, including nuclear proliferation and the entitlement crisis, advisers said. "People are disappointed that for the last two presidencies – almost 20 years now – we've seen people not held accountable and a cavalier attitude toward basic governmental responsibilities," said the person who has talked to Thompson.

All this adds up to a guy who is clearly Up To Something. And that something just might be upending the entire GOP race for the presidency. Helpfully Rudy Giuliani chipped in for Fred by nearly self-destructing over abortion this week.

Since the end of Ronald Reagan's second term, the GOP and "Reagan Democrats" have been asking: where is the next Reagan?

George H.W. Bush had the chance to continue the Gipper's policies, yet yielded to Democrats and raised taxes, a move that condemned him to the dustbin of single-term chief executives. His son was believed to be the next to rekindle the fires of Reaganism and has proven to be unconservative in many policies including the prescription drug plan and various other proposals.

Now we have a man who is considering a run for the Oval Office who embodies many of the same ideals as Reagan: Fred Thompson.

Thompson has several things going for him that would propel him to the top of not only the GOP candidates, but all candidates. He has instant visual and voice recognition from his myriad acting roles. He is a man who exudes optimism and conveys the feeling of national pride, exactly like Reagan. He communicates his ideas in a forthright manner, yet is unyielding in doing what he thinks is best for the country.