Sen. John Sunnunu, R-N.H., might as well pack his bags. He can barely get a 43% approval rating and now former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is going to run for his seat. From an e-mail sent to the press

because we have major problems facing this country, and there is an urgent need for real change in Washington," Shaheen said. "We've proven in New Hampshire that we can work together to get things done. I want to take that common-sense approach to Washington and help get this country moving in the right direction."

She will make an announcement Sunday. Just by entering the race preliminary polls show her leading the incumbent. That doesn't happen often. Meanwhile Sen. Ted Stevens, he of the bridge to nowhere, is now facing the problem of what happens when one accepts free help. According to the guy who did the bribe (CEO, pipeline company)

"I gave Ted some old furniture," Allen said. "I don't think there was a lot of material. There was some labor."

Nothing to see here. Move on, move on. Except for this:

The workers were Veco employees, probably one to four at a time, Allen said. He said the work on the home lasted for "probably a couple of months." Later, he said it might have been as much as six months. The remodeling work in summer and fall 2000 more than doubled the size of the house, a four-bedroom structure that is Stevens' official residence in Alaska.

Gosh, we just threw some old furniture around and didn't do much besides DOUBLE the size of his house. Maybe Sen. Ted Stevens could find that bridge and keep driving.

On Fox News last night, the GOP candidates -- sans Fred Thompson -- went at it again. There were some more fireworks than in previous face-offs and the race is starting to get more heated. Iraq, immigration, abortion and the greater War on Terror were the main topics with immigration and Iraq taking up the most time.

Winners would include John McCain although it's too little, too late and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee had a sparring match with Ron Paul in which Huckabee definitely had the crowd on his side and in my opinion won the match. You can see why Paul attracts some devotees but I have to agree with Glenn Reynolds that his notion that the "neocons" led us to war and not the nation as a whole rings hollow. Paul is essentially rewriting history as he knows full-well that the President went to Congress for approval and went to the UN as well. In fact, the process was extended because of that and that allowed Saddam to set up the insurgency in my opinion. So the idea that a few "neocons" got us into war is ludicrous at best. Huckabee is running a decent campaign being that he came from nowhere.

McCain hit some good points and came across as prepared and on his game, unfortunately he sank during the "shamnesty" bill imbroglio and can never get back to the point he was, especially with Fred Thompson now in the race. A McCain upset in the early primaries is a possibility but not probable. The Arizona Senator had the funniest line of the night when busting on Thompson for missing the debate and doing the Leno show: "Maybe we're up past his bedtime," although McCain is four years older.

Rudy Giuliani didn't make any huge mistakes but he didn't exactly blow anyone away either. He was Mayor of New York, we all know he was Mayor of New York and we all know his record in New York. Start talking about the rest of the country, Rudy.

I had only one question after last night's GOP debate: Can Mike Huckabee use it to build on his Iowa success, or will he once again fade into the woodwork? If you remember Huckabee was going nowhere until -- with next to no money -- he pulled off a surprising second place finish in the Iowa straw poll. Here then, are some random thoughts on Huckabee's debate performance last night:

Tigerhawk: "The most eloquent non-candidate up there, I would love to go to his church."

Headingright.com: Huckabee on Iraq: Has oblivious NIE pessimism thrown at him. His answer: "We broke it, we have to fix it." Color me underwhelmed. He must grasp that since he's trying to ride on McCain's coattails.

Stephen Green: I would so hire Mike Huckabee as my accountant. Heck, I might even vote for him for city council. And that's about it.

Ann Althouse: Here's what I think. Get Hunter, Paul, Tancredo, and Brownback out of there. Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani are serious and have a lot to say. Sit them down at a table and let them talk to each other. With Fred. Gotta bring Fred in too now. Let's go into a new stage of the campaign. It's really wearing to sit through Paul's ravings and Tancredo's fumblings and Hunter's blahness and Brownback's family, family, family. Enough.

Life on the campaign trail can indeed be lonely for a presidential candidate struggling to gain traction.

The photo above captures Republican Sam Brownback speaking to a sparse audience at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Tuesday. To be fair, there were at least 11 more people on the right side of the room, not pictured here.

Still, this can't bode well for the Brownback campaign. What does the Republican senator from Kansas need to do to capture the voters' interest? Or is it a hopeless case? Leave your comments below.

From here on out, the name of the game for Fred Thompson is "living up to expectations." To this point, he's been able to control his message with scripted YouTube videos on Federalism, homespun kitsch as a fill-in for Paul Harvey, and a handful of selective public appearances. The biggest question facing Mr. Thompson is how well he'll perform when going toe-to-toe with the competition. Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain (Not to mention Mike Huckabee) have proven themselves to be worthy adversaries at the slew of Republican debates which Mr. Thompson has sat out.

Well, add another missed opportunity to the list. In a calculated maneuver, Mr. Thompson will "officially" join the field of contenders the day after what one could argue is an important New Hampshire debate tomorrow night. But don't despair, Thompson fans, you can catch your man on Jay Leno, where he'll hope to reach a bigger audience and duck the live fire of his rivals. Believe me, Mr. Thompson's absence will not be lost on the proceedings. Nor should it. He could just as easily announced his entry into the race on the 5th, and made the debate the first big event of his fledgling campaign, but the potential for a let-down performance was just too great.

Indeed, in an even greater affront to voters, Thompson plans to run an ad during the Republican debate. How's that for having your cake and eating it, too?

Unfortunately for Mr. Thompson, these kinds of scripted, tightly-choreographed forays will soon be coming to an end.

When will it be? Maybe sooner than you think. Somehow I missed this in the Boston Globe, but the speculation is that Fred Thompson will announce on or around September 5, and simultaneously show up for the University of New Hampshire debate on the same date.

Asked Wednesday by a Nashville, Tenn., radio commentator whether Sept. 5 is likely to be the day, Thompson said: "I can't give you a particular date, but sounds like you're in the neighborhood."

"I'm taking the time that I've got allotted to me to get my team together, to get my act together," Thompson said.

More speculation of the same sort here.

Well, it's not like there has been any lack of opportunity! If he misses this debate, there will be another, we can count on that. As someone who's warming up to Thompson, I'm afraid to say it, but I think the superheated buzz around his non-campaign is raising expectations extremely high for his potential performance in any potential debate. He's going to have to hit a home run every single time.

Who benefits from the expectations game? Mike Huckabee, who, with an impressive achievement in the Iowa Straw Poll, will be watched closely in any future debates. He will no longer be lumped in with the others in the second tier but will be watched closely for any breakout potential. Which he has, in spades. Thompson or no Thompson, the next GOP debate and the reactions to it will be interesting for that alone.

The New England granite industry seems like a relic of another era. A brochure from Halibut Point State Park in Rockport, Mass., informs the reader that "Today, a single granite quarry remains in operation on Cape Ann; several others are active across New England." Has the "first-in-the-nation" primary in the Granite State, New Hampshire, also outlived its era?

Every four years, the New Hampshire primary exercises a disproportionate influence on who becomes our chief executive. This tiny state, with a population of just over 1.3 million, a land area of under 9,000 square miles, and four electoral votes, can quickly create front-runners and doom candidates who fail to finish first.

Is there any way to counter the power of the Granite State? Or will the winners of the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic and Republican primaries use their sudden momentum to triumph elsewhere? This country needs a state to challenge the New Hampshire primacy. "Checks and balances" aren't just needed in our federal government; they would also prove useful in our presidential primary system.

Merci to my muse on this one...

I've been wondering for a long time when the Democrats would discover they had, underneath their noses, a qualified, experienced presidential candidate who would be an electoral nightmare for Republicans to fight. This week Bill Richardson has gotten some attention. Walter Shapiro in Salon:

This week, for the first time, the respected Granite State Poll, sponsored by CNN and WMUR, put Richardson in third place (10 percent support), just ahead of John Edwards and Al Gore (tied at 8 percent), giving the New Mexico governor new bragging rights. But the most relevant number by far in the poll -- and another statistic that can only give Richardson hope -- is that 64 percent of New Hampshire Democrats say they are "still trying to decide" on a candidate.

Good news for the Richardson team. Focused attention on a key state may do the trick. Also, a widespread realization that Edwards is not a serious potential candidate if the Democrats want to, you know, win. The article goes on to quote Richardson on a couple of interesting topics:

...since he has gone from his initial support of the Iraq war to being an outspoken anti-warrior....

...Richardson grimaced comically and then said, "Full disclosure -- the National Rifle Association has given me an 'A' rating."...

... I'm not going to rail against rich persons. That's not me. I believe that we should have a pro-growth economy."...

So we have an anti-war liberal, who is also a pro-business, pro-gun governor from a key western state. This is a scary combination for a potential GOP opponent. Think Jon Tester in Montana and you have about sized up the situation. Thankfully for the GOP, the Democrats appear to be hell bent, just like 2004, in nominating one of their weaker candidates.

A recent Rasmussen poll has Mitt Romney ahead in New Hampshire. Romney is receiving support from 26% of those polls and the trio of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson receive about 17% each.

A couple of weeks ago, I noted that Romney is doing well in the early primary states. Momentum is a wonderful partner. As Romney wins, the money will flow in. Furthermore, it seems that the real loser will be Rudy. If he can't win in the east, it may effect his standings nationally.

Fred Thompson will do well in the South and Rudy may find himself riding the McCain Express down to the bottom of the pack. Romney may change his positions for the occasion but it is working. People like what he is saying ....now.

This could wind up being a race between Thompson and Romney.

Mitt Romney just won't go away. He doesn't have the charisma of Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson but he keeps moving forward. The January primaries could give him the momentum to be a formidable contender in February.

Take a look at the most recent poll numbers for the states that matter in Jan. 2008.

		Electoral
Date	STATE	Votes	Giuliani	Thompson	Romney	McCain
Jan. 14	Iowa	7	15%	17%	25%	6%
Jan. 19	Nevada	5	21%	1%	23%	16%
Jan. 22	N.H.	4	22%	12%	29%	20%
Jan. 29	S.C	8	21%	25%	11%	7%
Jan. 29	Florida	27	30%	24%	8%	11%

If the numbers hold up, Giuliani will be explaining how he could lose three primaries in a row. It doesn't always pay to be the front-runner.

McCain will be explaining why he lost five out of five and is just getting weaker and weaker. My guess is that he will soon see his support moving over to Fred Thompson. If that happens, McCain will receive less than 10% of the vote in South Carolina and Florida. Could be an early departure for McCain.

Thompson is standing tall and getting stronger. It will be interesting to see if he gains strength after he announces or weakens under the microscope.

The primary season will begin on January 14, 2008 and if the polls are right, Hillary Clinton is going to be sitting pretty on January 30, 2008. Rather than bore you with my words, take a look at the latest state polling numbers below.

		Electoral
Date	STATE	Votes	Obama	Clinton	Edwards
Jan. 14	Iowa	7	18%	22%	21%
Jan. 19	Nevada	5	16%	40%	16%
Jan. 22	New Hampshire	4	22%	36%	12%
Jan. 29	South Carolina	8	34%	25%	12%
Jan. 29	Florida	27	21%	37%	20%

I have limited the poll numbers to the above three candidates because they have consistently remained competitive. The other candidates have not yet been able to get into the serious numbers. Hillary seems to be getting stronger and stronger. Her numbers in Iowa have constantly improved.

The next primary will be on Feb. 5 and that will involve at least thirteen states (perhaps more) and a Democrat could easily hit the magic number by that date.

Super bizarre news out of New Hampshire, where it appears a top aide to Mitt Romney is impersonating a police officer -- and not for the first time. The same staffer got in trouble a few years back "for having flashing lights and other police equipment in his car without proper permits." That was when he was on Governor Romney's staff -- on the public payroll, in other words.

Jay Garrity apparently impersonated a cop in order to harass both a New York Times reporter and a truck driver. I'm not even sure that this is just bad politics. It actually sounds pathological.

This, of course, comes on the heels of news that Rudy "Broken Windows" Giuliani's South Carolina campaign chair got busted for coke. Mitt Romney's bagman in Utah is being sued for operating private schools were students were subject to physical, emotional, and sexual abuse. So let's just hope that these candidates are more honest and/or competent than the folks surrounding them.

The primary season has produced something of a mirror image. John Edwards on one side, Mitt Romney on the other. While both men trail at least two other candidates in national polls, each shows strong support in Iowa. Likewise, Edwards and Romney are increasingly focusing on New Hampshire in a bid to dole out a one-two punch to their rivals. The strategy is to snatch all the publicity from two early wins and translate it into an unstoppable momentum. Hey, stranger things have happened.

So what about a head-to-head match up between these two dashing gents? Well, according to Gallup, it's not even close. In fact, if you believe in this sort of speculation, Edwards would trounce Romney 61% to 32%, a higher margin of victory than either Obama, who was second, or Clinton. But then, once again, all Democrats beat all Republicans (though Thompson wasn't included in this survey).

The electability question factors large in a new article about Edwards, which highlights not only on the Iowa/New Hampshire game plan, but the former North Carolina Senator's belief that he can compete in the reddest of Southern states:

As much as he declares himself the antidote to George W. Bush, it's what he shares with the Texan--known for whacking brush in Crawford and using Lone Star State grammar instead of what he learned at Andover and Yale--that could be his best hope for winning: Southern authenticity.

Moreover, it is his attention to rural matters that makes Edwards popular with audiences in the little towns all across the country. Romney? Well, he has a varmint gun.

I have to admit, this one snuck up on me. Why? It seems like we just had one of these a couple of weeks ago. Oh. Right. We did. Sheesh, how many of these debates will we have had by January?

Anyway, I was able to catch up on some (hopefully most) of the relevant video here. Overall I'd have to say that the format and pacing of this debate was just better, or the candidates are getting much better at this debate thing. Probably a little of both.

YouTube helpfully has some of the highlights.

The problem with a debate of this size is that you just don't get to hear as many answers as you'd like from the candidates you want to hear from. That said, here are tonight's winners and losers, in my most humble of opinions:

Winners:

Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani was forceful with his points and seems to be getting more comfortable. He walked the stage and looked like an attorney in a courtroom; confident, sure of his answers and convincing. He didn't get tripped up on the social issues and was on his game. He solidified his place as a front-runner by sounding conservative on national defense and taxation.

Duncan Hunter: Duncan Hunter suffers from the incurable disease of having zero charisma. He's a great candidate and knows policy better than anyone. He would make an excellent president. He was on in his answers and knows the immigration issue well because his district (my former home) in San Diego County is literally miles from the border. He also has a son serving in Afghanistan and who also served in Iraq, the war is real to him and he speaks with authority. That said, he still is a third-tier candidate because he is just not making a splash with the American people. He'd be an excellent Vice President. The international press and the New York Times will most-likely go ballistic that Hunter said he'd nuke Iran to prevent their having nukes themselves.

Losers:

John McCain: McCain had to be stellar today when discussing the immigration bill. He had to convince conservatives that this was a good bill. He failed miserably. As the old saying goes; you can put a dress and lipstick on a pig and it's still a pig. That's how it is with the immigration bill. McCain had but one issue to hammer home and he just couldn't do it. Besides that, the whole "my friends" thing is a bit irksome after the fiftieth time.