ABSENT: Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mitt Romney

PRESENT: Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes

What were they thinking? They say a picture is worth a thousand words and the four empty chairs on the podium of the Republicans' recent debate on Thursday, September 27th at Morgan State University spoke volumes. Regardless of the spin or the rationale (reported "scheduling conflicts" for each of them), those candidates obviously did not think it was worth their while to show up and there is no way to interpret that except that they didn't think it was important to reach out to these blocs of voters -- which is interesting, since the over 60, white male, southern voter is probably going to vote for one of them anyway and is a shrinking population. I'm not sure a candidate can win the national election anymore with over 60, while male, southern voters.

Mike Huckabee said he was "embarrassed for our party and I'm embarrassed for those who didn't come."

Sam Brownback said, "I think this is a disgrace that they are not here...a disgrace to our country...bad for our party...I don't think it's good for our future."

The general consensus is that after the primary, whoever the Republicans select will start moving towards the center and reaching out to these other voters. Good luck with that strategy. There are a lot of us around who will remind people of who was important, or not, to the candidate in September 2007.

NRO reports on the Straw Poll result from the Mackinac conference conducted this weekend:

Romney - 39.12%
McCain - 26.56%
Paul - 10.83%
Giuliani - 10.62%
F. Thompson - 7.15%
Huckabee - 2.55%
Hunter - 1.23%
Tancredo - 0
Brownback - 0.31%

While local Michigan blog both-right reports on a poll of Michigan likely voters

Giuliani 27%
Romney 13%
Thompson 13%
McCain 6%
Huckabee 5%
Brownback 4%
Tancredo 0%
Hunter 7%
Paul 2%

Huge differences. Keep in mind that the straw poll is of party activists that paid to attend a conference, while the voters are just voters. So, we can tell that in Michigan, (and other places) there is a huge difference between what the party establishment wants, and what the rank-and-file want. Mitt Romney spent a lot of time in Michigan, his dad was governor, he has a lot of organizing money so it's not surprising he would do well.

- John McCain's support is nonexistent outside of the establishment
- In fact it's so bad that Duncan Hunter is doing better.
- Mike Huckabee is not breaking through anything, in fact did not attend.
- Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani both do much better with the voters than the establishment.

Michigan has moved up it's primary and will be a significant factor in choosing the next president. McCain and Huckabee need to worry about that. The others, not so much.

Could a hot topic catapult a GOP second-tier candidate into the 2008 presidential nomination?

Earlier this year, it looked like illegal immigration could be that topic. It brought headlines to Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, and headaches for President Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Now Republicans seem united in opposing illegal immigration. In last week's presidential debate, McCain, after making an insensitive reference to "the Guatemalans" on Mitt Romney's lawn, said, "No one, by the way, is for amnesty. I and the president of the United States, both of us from border states, came forward with a plan that we thought was comprehensive and workable with the priority being border security, which remains my position."
What remaining issue could spark an insurgency? Iraq. Anti-war Rep. Ron Paul of Texas articulated his anti-war argument in New Hampshire.

The latest USA Today poll has Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee all gaining while Mitt Romney falls 4%. Fred Thompson only gained 3% in this poll taken over the weekend, the first since he announced he's a candidate. Pretty modest numbers for a new candidate. The numbers also suggest as I noted earlier that McCain is indeed back in the race and must now be repositioned back into the top tier.

However, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Thompson leading Giuliani 26% to 22% meaning Fred took some votes from America's Mayor. The Rasmussen poll has historically had Giuliani closer to the field than others so no great change. That's a four point jump for Thompson, not a significant leap but something he may be able to build on.

With regard to Fred Thompson, I expected to see at least an 8-10 point surge after his announcement, but his long, drawn out pre-campaign nullified any great bump. The numbers I find intriguiging for Thompson is the high percentage who don't know him:

Thompson is significantly less well known than Giuliani or McCain - 28% of Republicans say they've never heard of Thompson, compared with 8% for Giuliani and 9% for McCain.

Among those Republicans who know all four leading contenders, Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied. In a head-to-head race among all GOP voters, Giuliani bests Thompson by 13 points, 53%-40%.

How can 28% not know who Fred is? That says to me that he was not very effective in getting his name out over the summer, a major campaign flaw and unforgiveable for a candidate who has been on a top-rated show for a couple of years. Apparently, those who do know of Thompson like him as he is tied with Rudy in that category.

Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo all posted the usual horrid numbers. It's surprising that Ron Paul hasn't broken 4% in any USA Today poll given his supposed clout in the race and his landslide victories in text and internet polls. I guess it doesn't translate to the real world.

I had only one question after last night's GOP debate: Can Mike Huckabee use it to build on his Iowa success, or will he once again fade into the woodwork? If you remember Huckabee was going nowhere until -- with next to no money -- he pulled off a surprising second place finish in the Iowa straw poll. Here then, are some random thoughts on Huckabee's debate performance last night:

Tigerhawk: "The most eloquent non-candidate up there, I would love to go to his church."

Headingright.com: Huckabee on Iraq: Has oblivious NIE pessimism thrown at him. His answer: "We broke it, we have to fix it." Color me underwhelmed. He must grasp that since he's trying to ride on McCain's coattails.

Stephen Green: I would so hire Mike Huckabee as my accountant. Heck, I might even vote for him for city council. And that's about it.

Ann Althouse: Here's what I think. Get Hunter, Paul, Tancredo, and Brownback out of there. Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani are serious and have a lot to say. Sit them down at a table and let them talk to each other. With Fred. Gotta bring Fred in too now. Let's go into a new stage of the campaign. It's really wearing to sit through Paul's ravings and Tancredo's fumblings and Hunter's blahness and Brownback's family, family, family. Enough.

Mitt Romney won the Illinois Straw Poll at the State Fair with 40.4% of the 922 ballots cast:

(Fred) Thompson finished second with 20 percent or 184 votes. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was third with 18.9 percent or 174 votes; Giuliani was fourth with 11.6 percent or 107 votes; and McCain finished fifth with 4.1 percent or 38 votes.

Huckabee, who finished second in the Iowa balloting, finished sixth in the Illinois straw poll with 3 percent or 28 votes, while Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas had 1.1 percent or 10 votes. Hunter had 0.7 percent or 6 votes and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado finished ninth with 0.3 percent or 2 votes.

Nice numbers for Romney and Fred Thompson and a decent showing for Ron Paul, beating out Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo and (unfortunately) Duncan Hunter are toast.

But that's not the only poll conducted there and not nearly as meaningful as the poll of state GOP county chairmen. In that poll, Fred Thompson won with 22 out of 40-ballots cast. Giuliani was second with 13 and Romney finished in third with 9. Note that Ron Paul received no votes in this poll.

Why is the county chairmen vote more important? Because those are the people who will be boots on the ground in Illinois getting out the vote. These are political people who know who will succeed in Illinois and who will not. The fact that Thompson--who's not even in the race yet--got nearly half the votes is telling as to what the political establishment in that state thinks and they think Fred is the man.

This is quickly coming down to a three-man race and will be a two-man race once the real voting begins. Romney is winning these insignificant polls because he's all over the state and glad-handing every one. As a nominee, he would get crushed; he's a former governor of a deeply blue state, he's too polished for the red states and he is constantly caught in flip-flops. He may make a good V.P. candidate, but we've got quite awhile to contemplate that.

Mitt Romney romped in the Iowa Straw Poll, though it doesn't mean much since Rudy Giuliani and John McCain didn't participate:

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, got 31.6 percent of the more than 14,000 ballots cast, compared with 18.1 percent for second-place finisher Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas; 15.3 percent for Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback; 13.7 percent for Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo; and 9.1 percent for Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who rounded out the top five in the 11-man field.

This means nothing for Romney as he expected to win. For Mike Huckabee, it gives him a much-needed boost but essentially means he'll be around until the Iowa caucuses and then drop out.

The big losers were Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, who failed to get any real traction during the immigration bill debacle and Rep. Ron Paul. Paul, in particular, needed a good showing to give clout to his alleged groundswell. That groundswell didn't materialize and if Paul can't win -- or even make the top three -- in a watered-down field, he has no business being in the race other than to act as spoiler -- which may be the plan.

The Iowa Straw Poll was once considered to be of great import but that time is passed. The candidates made a showing of busing people in and treating them all nicely in exchange for a vote that means nothing. I suspect that we'll see Brownback, Tancredo, Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter pack it in as they had dismal showings and their campaigns have not lit any sparks anywhere (in Hunters case, that's a shame). Paul will keep going as he has, in his words, "large Internet support," but real voting is not the same as spamming a blog's poll and hitting the Ron Paul button fifty times in three minutes.

First, let's remind ourselves how FUBAR it all is. A Washington Post article details how 190,000 AK-47 rifles and pistols have just somehow gone missing after the U.S. gave them to the Iraqi security forces they were training. It is estimated that 30% of the weapons we have shipped to Iraq are in the wrong hands and yet the Republicans scream bloody murder when 6 Iranian weapons are found. John McCain says "bomb bomb Iran." The entire Republican field (Ron Paul is as much a Republican as Joe Lieberman is a Democrat) continues to support President Bush's war. They are very vocal and don't say the war is wrong just that we haven't done enough. Now comes the topper:

Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's campaign stood by his assertion that bombing holy Muslim sites would serve as a good "deterrent" to prevent Islamic fundamentalists from attacking the United States, his spokeswoman said Friday. "This shows that we mean business," said Bay Buchanan, a senior Tancredo adviser.

How insane is that? Let's start WW3 off with a bang, shall we? Let's just go nuclear on them, that will show them. I mentioned this item to a few people at the office and the reaction was uniform along the lines of rolling eyes and 'You've got to be kidding.' Most Americans realize we live in a real world, not some imaginary place where we can bomb away and solve problems. A bit more on the flip.

To twist a Howard Dean phrase, the Republican wing of the Republican party has scored a victory over the dissidents on illegal immigration. Will immigration continue to be a hot topic as 2008 beckons?

If you're John McCain, you better hope not. If you're Tom Tancredo, the issue could earn you more attention and primary votes if it stays current.

Illegal immigration could be to 2008 what gay marriage was in 2004: A topic that galvanized conservative voters to provide support for the Republican presidential candidate. How much this will help the GOP remains to be seen, however.

The alliance of talk radio, blogs and grassroots efforts was a winner when it came to defeating the "shamnesty" bill. Conservatives were enraged and showed just how much power we possess:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of 15,000 adults in June found that just 32.0% now say they're Republicans. That's up more than a full percentage point from a month ago and is within a tenth-of-a-point of the GOP's best showing in ten months.

This is purely because of the efforts put forth to defeat a bill that would've rewarded those who broke our laws. The Bush administration suffered its worst legislative defeat because of the actions of fellow Republicans.

This is interesting as it shows that immigration is an important issue and it shows that President Bush, Ted Kennedy and John McCain were on the absolute wrong side of it. The Democrats actually stayed out of the fray for the most part and the media portrayed it for what it was; a major disagreement between conservatives and the president. The president lost, conservatives won and the public went against the president. That should be telling to the Bush administration.

Note also that the people who identified themselves as Democrats decreased. That is telling as well since the Dems were associated with this bill largely by the presence of Teddy Kennedy.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: McCain lost the election on this issue and candidates such as Fred Thompson and Tom Tancredo stuck to their guns and ended up on the side of the American people. Others such as Lindsey Graham and Sam Brownback came out looking like fools and severely misjudged the public reaction to illegal immigration.

Well, it's happened. 24 Republicans crossed over and joined 39 Democrats and Joe Lieberman and voted for cloture. Now the immigration bill heads for an up-down Senate vote and only needs 51 to pass. Among those crossing were Norm Coleman (R-MN), Kit Bond (R-MO) and John Ensign (R-NV).

The fight is not over, but the support of conservatives for those 24 senators and President Bush is:

"It's clear there's a large number of the House Republicans who have serious concerns with the Senate bill," said Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, the minority leader.

Several of the Republican amendments slated for upcoming Senate votes would make the bill tougher on unlawful immigrants, while those by Democrats would make it easier on those seeking to immigrate legally based solely on family ties.

Particularly worrisome to supporters, including the Bush administration, is a bipartisan amendment by Sens. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Max Baucus, D-Mont., that would change the bill's new program for weeding out illegal employees from U.S. workplaces.

Politics, it's said, makes for strange bedfellows and it's been no truer than today. I find myself on the same side as Sens. Barack Obama and Max Baucus (although for different reasons). This is a pretty smart play by Obama for the record.

I once wrote a post on this blog two months ago calling Tom Tancredo a one-issue candidate. I heard from the Tancredo supporters and they weren't too happy.

Well, today I am a Tancredo fan as he pushed through an amendment that has "stunned" Washington D.C. From the Rocky Mountain News:

The U.S. House of Representatives this morning voted to withhold federal emergency services funding for "sanctuary cities" that protect illegal immigrants.

Anti-illegal immigration champion Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., sponsored the measure, which he says would apply to cities such as Denver and Boulder. He was elated by its passage, which stunned critics and supporters alike.

Not only did it pass, it passed with 50 Democrats crossing over in support. This is a victory for conservatives as a whole and Tancredo in particular. The passage of this amendment could well spell the end of this bill that many on the right have worked extremely hard to kill. If 50 donks crossed, what happens when it comes to voting on the entire bill?

I think the Senate and House are surely feeling the ire of the their constituents and are ducking for cover. They know full-well that they cannot vote for this and get reelected in certain parts of the country. The Blue Dog Dems from the South who were just elected will get voted out in 2008 and they are fully cognizant of that fact.

Tancredo has something to crow about and it may just help him gain some much-needed momentum. More here.

I'll update this as the debate goes along. Add your thoughts in comments.

Update (7:20): On the question of whether the invasion of Iraq was right or wrong, Mitt Romney dodged, Rudy Giuliani was straight forward and said he supported it; Duncan Hunter said he would use tactical nukes against Iran to prevent them from developing a nuke themselves. Rudy agreed.

Ron Paul went right to his cut and run rhetoric.

Update (7:41): John McCain failed to explain himself with the immigration bill. McCain said it wasn't the bill he'd have written. Huh?

Hunter called the bill the Bush/McCain/Kennedy bill. That'll leave a mark.

Giuliani harped on the lack of a database and Romney suggested making the Z-Visa temporary.

Update (8:06): On pardoning Scooter Libby, Giuliani, Tommy Thompson, Romney and Tom Tancredo said they would comsider it as did huckabee. Others dodged.

Hunter said he would pardon Border Patrol agents Compion and Ramos who were jailed for shooting a drug dealer. That will go over well with conservatives.

Update (8:29): Giuliani hit the prescription drug question out of the park. He also dealt well with the Iraq question.

Sam Brownback said twice he'd introduce legislation tomorrow to break Iraq into three "states." An interesting concept I'll cover tomorrow.

Update (8:37): Ron Paul actually just said that Iran is not a threat in response to Duncan Hunter's earlier assertion that he would preemptively nuke Iran to keep them from obtaining nukes. He also said (and I paraphrase) that they've never done anything to us. I'm sure there are people who were hostages for 444 days who would beg to differ, congressman.

Paul is not a libertarian or Republican, he is an anti-war liberal.

It's been a long time coming but President Bush has sold out his party and supporters for the last time.

Today, the GOP agreed to an immigration reform bill that is in essence an amnesty bill. Sure, there are little caveats in the bill where illegal aliens will be required to get "Z-Visas" and some will be sent home but most will be granted amnesty and we are back to square one. Border fences will be ordered built but funding will never be appropriated. More border patrol agents will be hired and new rules will neuter their powers. To sum it up, Bush sold out to Mexico and the political left. Note that every time he agrees with Teddy Kennedy, our nation gets less secure.

Republicans have two major issues that trump all others: national security and as an extension of that, control of our borders. The Democrats say that they are two separate issues, but all one has to do is look at how three of the men arrested in the Fort Dix terror plot entered the country. Yes, according to Newsweek writers Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball (no conservatives they) they entered illegally from Mexico into Texas:

The source familiar with the Duka case said that the three Duka brothers-Dritan, Eljvir and Shain-are believed to have first entered the United States illegally in 1984 by crossing from Mexico at Brownsville, Texas.

With the recent immigration rallies across the country, the topic of illegal immigration has reclaimed the spotlight. This may give more of an opportunity for 2008 presidential candidate Tom Tancredo to present his views. "Tancredo believes in eliminating incentives for immigrants to come to the U.S. and building a fence along the border with Mexico," the Denver Post reported. "Tancredo also backs deportation of illegal immigrants and legally taking to task any companies that hire them." Sending away people from another country ... hmm ... where have we heard that before? Oh, yeah, Hugo Chavez's government was proposing this for ConocoPhillips.

In a previous cartoon, I compared Tancredo with Chavez. Seems great minds really do think alike, as this week's cartoon demonstrates: