And so it begins. The bottom tier candidates are starting to drop out as they realize that support and money are hard to come by when your chances are slim:

He says, "my campaign was completely shocked. We absolutely thought we were coming in second [at the Iowa Straw Poll]. We had no doubt in our minds. The worst we thought we'd come in was third and it didn't happen that way. Something happened between the 50-yard line and the goal line. They pulled a reverse on us and we didn't see it coming."

So you decided to punt. Enough of the football metaphors already. Tommy Thompson never stood a chance as he has nothing to make him stand out. Tom Tancredo has illegal immigration (and is still struggling), Giuliani has a history of leadership the country knows and Fred Thompson is famous and was a good senator. Tommy Thompson was a non-factor from the beginning.

Really, how could Thompson's campaign be "shocked"? He was polling low everywhere except Iowa and if he did do well at the straw poll, he would've been pummeled in the primaries anyway.

Expect others on both sides to throw in the towel soon as donors assess the landscape and decide who they want to throw their hard-earned shekels at. Come January, I expect six candidates on both sides to still be in it with two or three at most having any shot at winning.

Fred Thompson's Web site went active yesterday. It seems like an immediate success:

Averaged close to 1,500 people per hour signing up as friends

Averaged $12,000 per hour in contributions

Raised more than $220,000 dollars via the website

Seen just under half of the Friends send a message to others asking them to sign up or give.

Patrick Ruffini is a good source, but note the numbers come from Fred's people.

If these numbers are remotely realistic, Thompson is tapping into GOP sources that have been holding back and waiting. These donations are from normal people who give $10 or so. Imagine what his numbers will be with the big money donors.

This has to be seen as extremely disheartening to the second and third tier GOP candidates. It has to be downright scary to candidates such as Romney and McCain who have been struggling of late (read: last week or so). It should come down to a Giuliani vs. Thompson race with the loser being the VP candidate. Either way, it will be a formidable pairing with one offsetting the other on social issues with the public.

If Fred were smart, he'd get in before the next debate, throw out a few zingers and watch the riff-raff like Ron Paul and Tommy Thompson fall by the wayside.

I'll update this as the debate goes along. Add your thoughts in comments.

Update (7:20): On the question of whether the invasion of Iraq was right or wrong, Mitt Romney dodged, Rudy Giuliani was straight forward and said he supported it; Duncan Hunter said he would use tactical nukes against Iran to prevent them from developing a nuke themselves. Rudy agreed.

Ron Paul went right to his cut and run rhetoric.

Update (7:41): John McCain failed to explain himself with the immigration bill. McCain said it wasn't the bill he'd have written. Huh?

Hunter called the bill the Bush/McCain/Kennedy bill. That'll leave a mark.

Giuliani harped on the lack of a database and Romney suggested making the Z-Visa temporary.

Update (8:06): On pardoning Scooter Libby, Giuliani, Tommy Thompson, Romney and Tom Tancredo said they would comsider it as did huckabee. Others dodged.

Hunter said he would pardon Border Patrol agents Compion and Ramos who were jailed for shooting a drug dealer. That will go over well with conservatives.

Update (8:29): Giuliani hit the prescription drug question out of the park. He also dealt well with the Iraq question.

Sam Brownback said twice he'd introduce legislation tomorrow to break Iraq into three "states." An interesting concept I'll cover tomorrow.

Update (8:37): Ron Paul actually just said that Iran is not a threat in response to Duncan Hunter's earlier assertion that he would preemptively nuke Iran to keep them from obtaining nukes. He also said (and I paraphrase) that they've never done anything to us. I'm sure there are people who were hostages for 444 days who would beg to differ, congressman.

Paul is not a libertarian or Republican, he is an anti-war liberal.

The two toughest questions were asked of Rudy Giuliani and Tommy Thompson. The question to Giuliani was something to this effect: "What is the difference between Sunnis and Shiites?" Giuliani stuttered but answered the question factually. I guess you can't expect a Catholic to know about Islam. I'm Episcopalian, ask me about confession and I wouldn't know anything about it (yet I kind of dig that whole confession, say a few Hail Mary's/Rosaries and you're forgiven aspect).

Tommy Thompson was asked about the amount of troops killed in Iraq. Now this question is a set up, yet Thompson should have known. He was right on those killed, but dreadfully wrong on those wounded. He replied that over 3,000 are dead and several thousand wounded. Again, without a transcript, I'm going from memory. The exact dead and wounded are 3,357 dead and 24,314 according to ICasualty. Those numbers are generally very close to the DoD's numbers. Thompson should have said something innocuous such as "too many have been wounded" if he didn't know the answer. Instead he showed that he has not been paying attention to a number I'd imagine eats President Bush up on a daily basis.

Overall, the candidates made no major faux pas, short of Thompson, and I wouldn't expect the polls to change significantly unless Fred Thompson gets in right quick.

A week after the Democrats "debated" in South Carolina, their GOP counterparts do the same. The MSNBC/Politico-sponsored event took place in the impressive space at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California. And Nancy Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger were both on hand to lend further star power.

Chris Matthews took over moderator duties, though on several occasions the candidates didn't exactly answer the question he asked. Iraq was, not surprisingly, the first subject of the day, but conservative touchstones like abortion and stem-cell research were on the docket. Of course, there were a few softballs: which tax would you repeal? And should Bill Clinton be back in the White House (Give you one guess on the answers to that one.)

As for the contenders, the roll call included all 10 current candidates. For those of you keeping score at home they are (in reverse alphabetical order, just to change things up a bit): former Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin; Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado; former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts; Rep. Ron Paul of Texas; Sen. John McCain of Arizona; Rep. Duncan Hunter of California; former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York City; former Gov. Jim Gilmore of Virginia; and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas

So were there any clear winners or losers? Memorable moments? Did it help you decide who to vote for? Leave your comments below.

Previously on 'The Stump':
· Latest GOP Presidential Straw Poll
· It's April 2007 and They're Already Debating
· Coalition Wants Access to Debate Video

The GOP candidates are getting ready for tonight's MSNBC debate in California. Apparently no less than ten Republicans are fighting for the party's presidential nomination, and they will all show up.

Rudy Giuliani: Has the problem of high expectations as he is widely perceived as the best and quickest speaker. on his feet He needs to explain his awkward stance on guns, abortion and his third marriage. May succeed by steering the conversation toward crime, experience and solving tough problems.

John McCain: Needs a home run, badly, used to be viewed as a front runner and is clinging on to about 25% of the GOP voters despite great name recognition. Will he go on the offense against Giuliani or play it safe? Vulnerable to attacks on the judges and campaign finance front.

Mitt Romney: Just needs to get noticed and get a few sound bites in. He is also hoping for a Giuliani-McCain mudfest so he can look presidential in comparison. He should also explain why Battlefield Earth is a really good book.

As for the rest, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Thompson(Tommy), Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore. The best they can hope for is a few soundbites so that someone will remember that they too are running for president. Of these I have the highest hopes for Hunter. He has no chance, but he is well liked by movement conservatives.

I expect lots of references to Reagan, picking good judges and a rush to see who will be toughest on terrorists and the best friend of the military. The excitement will come from those who have little to lose; the second- and third-tier candidates.

Previously on 'The Stump':
· Republicans Will Wrangle at Reagan Library
· Latest GOP Presidential Straw Poll

It's almost as if there's a competition among the Republican candidates for president to see who can offend their speaking engagement audiences the most. First there came Mitt Romney's flop before a gathering of the Cuban community in South Florida. Then Newt Gingrich wowed a crowd by declaring Spanish a "ghetto language." And now we have Tommy Thompson's turn at the mic. Thompson, who bills himself as the only "reliable conservative" in the Republican field, recently addressed the Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism, and let fly with what he must have thought was a compliment:

"I'm in the private sector and for the first time in my life I'm earning money. You know that's sort of part of the Jewish tradition and I do not find anything wrong with that."

Imagine his surprise when the audience recoiled. Sensing the discomfort, Thompson hazarded an explanation:

"I just want to clarify something because I didn't by any means want to infer or imply anything about Jews and finances and things," he said. "What I was referring to, ladies and gentlemen, is the accomplishments of the Jewish religion. You've been outstanding business people and I compliment you on that."

Good on you, Jews. You really know how to sock that money away! But by day's end there was yet another apology, this time delivered by a Thompson spokesman:

"He is sorry he misspoke in complimenting the success that Jewish people have had in the United States. It is something that he admires financially and otherwise."

Related Posts on 'The Stump':
- Tommy Thompson: Earning His Living?
- Did McCain Nearly Leave the GOP?
- How to Say 'Oops' in Spanish
- Romney, a 'Lifelong' Flip-Flopper

Describing himself as a "reliable conservative," Tommy Thompson confirms that he is indeed running for president. AP reports:

Asked Sunday whether he was running for president, Thompson said, "That is correct."

Thompson, 65, has focused his strategy on Iowa, which holds the nation's first caucuses for presidential nominees. He has made weekly visits to the state and sought to make the case that it will take a candidate who can carry the Midwest to win the nomination.

Thompson is considered a dark-horse candidates in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, only polling in the single digits.

Yet he brings great experience to the race: He served as President Bush's Health and Human Services secretary during the first term, and spent 14 years as the governor of Wisconsin.

Do you think Thompson can gain momentum in the race? And is his Iowa strategy his best chance? Leave your comments below.

But the big news tonight is that another Thompson appears to be actually entering the race. Tommy Thompson has done some bits in Iowa and is now making a New Hampshire move:

Thompson has hired Meridian Communications, a New Hampshire-based political consulting firm, to set up an organization in the state.

Last year Meridian managed the ill-fated campaign of Jim Coburn, who lost to Governor John Lynch by the widest margin ever in a gubernatorial race in New Hampshire.

Which tells us a couple of things. One is that Thompson is seriously thinking about running, and two is that all the good media firms are already taken. Losers get the scraps. Of course it may not be Meridian's fault either, it just isn't the sort of thing I'd have on my letterhead.

I'm much more excited about Tommy Thompson entering than Fred. Thompson has the right kind of experience for a successful presidential bid, as it's much easier to run from a governor position than from the senate. As governor Thompson has led the way in welfare and education reform and won re-election three times with impressive majorities.

Fred Thompson is from Tennessee which is already a Republican lock. Tommy Thompson would take Wisconsin away from the Democrats and threaten Iowa and Minnesota. He doesn't quite have the gravitas of Fred Thompson But I believe makes up for it in experience.

But the biggest problem is that he starts way behind in an already crowded field.

OK, maybe.

This is a suprise to me.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson said Wednesday he intends to form a committee to explore a possible run for the White House in 2008.

"I intend to do so after the first of the year," Thompson said in reference to creating an exploratory committee.

Thompson served as Health and Human Services Secretary during President Bush's first term. The Republican was in Iowa, where he met with about 100 members of a group called Iowans for Wellness and Prevention.

But it makes sense. Despite all the publicity around Giuliani and McCain, the reality is that the presidential race is completely open and there is widespread dissatisfaction around those two. This dissatisfaction mainly stems from a reaction of "that's it?".