It appears the announcement bounce is over for Fred Thompson. As you all know, I expected Fred to get about a ten-point bump and have that fall back five points to a comfortable range in the front. Well, as it turns out the bounce wasn't that high, but the falling back part was right, via Rasmussen's Daily Tracking:

Date	Thompson	Giuliani	Romney	McCain
09/21/07	24%	24%	13%	15%
09/20/07	23%	22%	13%	15%
09/19/07	26%	21%	13%	14%
09/18/07	28%	19%	12%	14%
09/17/07	28%	19%	12%	14%
09/16/07	28%	18%	11%	15%
09/15/07	26%	19%	9%	14%

Date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Date
09/21/07	36%	25%	13%	09/21/07
09/20/07	38%	22%	14%	09/20/07
09/19/07	39%	22%	14%	09/19/07
09/18/07	40%	23%	14%	09/18/07
09/17/07	40%	23%	13%	09/17/07
09/16/07	40%	22%	14%	09/16/07
09/15/07	39%	23%	15%	09/15/07

After hitting 28%, Fred dropped 4-5 points which clearly went right back to Rudy Giuliani. This is clearly a two-man race, at least at this point. The next big movement will be based on how well Fred does in his first debate scheduled on Oct. 9.

Over on the Democratic side, clearly Hillary Clinton has slid a little. Could that be attributable to worries over Norman Hsu? The corruption angle definitely should be cause for concern, but with John Edwards and Barack Obama implicated in Hsu as well, the Democrats won't have anyone to turn to. Still a fairly static race at this point.

The latest Harris poll shows Fred Thompson leading Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama:

... One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

... Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.

The only really surprising thing in this poll is that young Democrats will vote for Obama while the older (61 and over) favor Hillary overwhelmingly. A return to the Al Gore, Sr. Dixiecrat roots perhaps?

The Thompson lead is to be expected as he is the "new" candidate. His performance in the debates will be extremely important, should he falter, Rudy will grab this race and run with it setting up the election we were robbed of back in 2000 when Rudy had to bow out because of cancer and Hillary ran against lightweight Rick Lazio.

These are good, strong numbers for Thompson and he should take heart, however they could change dramatically should he not make a good showing. I suspect he'll do fine but also that Giuliani will get a small bump be his brouhaha with MoveOn.org so things should even out. Mitt Romney and John McCain are toast at this point and only can be saved by a complete upset in the early primary states.

On the donk side, John Edwards just hasn't found his stride and is hovering at 12-16% based on polling. He stands no chance of advancing if he hasn't grabbed the electorate by now.

Despite the best efforts of the Bush administration, assorted pundits bloggers and the traditional media (including the NY Times and Washington Post), Americans have had it with this war and think the Dems in Congress have not done enough to end the war. According to a new Pew Research Center poll:

Check out the independent numbers. They are not moving President Bush's way. The only ones who feel good about the song and dance in Washington recently were Republicans (their numbers feeling the war was getting better went up a little).

President Bush and General Petraeus convinced no one else. The American people are speaking but are the leaders really listening. What a sad state that not even a few Republicans would support a Dem troop rotation that would give them as much time at home as in Iraq. It's not enough the war goes on, the elected Republicans are fine with the suffering on top of it.

Enough is enough.

Public approval ratings: President Bush: 29%. Congress: 11%.

That is the result of a recent Zogby Poll.

So what can you say about a situation that words can not aptly describe? In essence, you have two competing forces -- the Bush administration and the Democratic Congress -- in control of the Executive Branch and the Legislature whom the public absolutely despises? How about "You need to get your act together. Both of you."

It is difficult to pinpoint any one particular issue that has led to this drop because most of the problems are so voluminous that it's getting to the point where the public is longing for the good old days when King George ran the show. You have the emergence of a mortgage crisis that no one seems to know how to address; the current attempt to pass a piece meal amnesty program, the DREAM Act, in bold defiance of the public's will; the Democratic leadership getting lumped in with the far, far left due to the now legendarily disastrous "Betray Us" ad; the President planning on vetoing the bill that will de-fund the incredibly anti-union/anti-middle class Mexican truck program; refusal to deal with the importation of unsafe goods from China; and on and on and on.

While few assumed that President Bush's approval ratings could get worse, they have and the Pelosi/Reid Congress has been an absolute, unmitigated failure. 11% is the lowest approval rating in the history of the United States.

Let's put that into perspective: Bush is right up (down) there with Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and this Congress is less popular than the Congress that served during the time when half the country seceded from the union and a war broke out that saw 600,000 casualties.

Will things get better? Can they get any worse?

Karma will get you. When you violate the principles of a political ideology to the degree that the current Republican leadership has and to the degree that it has, it is only a matter of time that the voters will simply start abandoning the party.

According to the Politico, the polling organization Public Opinion Strategies has noticed a huge trend of voters no longer identifying/affiliating with the Republican Party. While the article mentions that the most significant drops in affiliation would be Independents who formerly favored conservative ideals, it also ignores the fact that many former registered Republicans are moving more towards the Independent ticket disenfranchised with the party. While these voters won't cast a pro-Democrat vote, they will simply opt not to vote at all preferring to stay at home in protest with the hopes that in the long run letting the current Republican leadership lose office and somewhere down the road be replaced by a legitimate conservative.

Yes, the Iraq war is a major part of the Republicans losing popularity, but there is more to it.

One of the huge fallacies about political groups in the United States is that all Republicans are conservative and all Democrats are liberals. This is not really an accurate sentiment as there are conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans and moderates in both parties. (And, yes, there are also fringe element radical and reactionary groups within both parties as well.)

What is utterly perplexing about the Republican Party is that it has moved more and more towards a hybrid of the classical Rockefeller Republican (often derided as country club Republicans) and emerging Neo-Conservatives (There are variants to the origin of what a neo-con is, but it is usually a combination of former conservative democrats who drifted to the Republican wing and globalists) yet the base of the Republican Party is primarily classical Reagan and Goldwater conservatives and the base isn't happy with this new crop of Republicans who are heavy on government spending, open borders, globalization, et al. In June, rage and anger from the base over President Bush's pro-amnesty stance led to a revolution of sorts which saw a massive drop in grass roots donations combined and this has now manifested to a multitude of the conservative base moving towards independent status.

This should come as no surprise. Why should conservatives affiliate themselves with a party that is not conservative?

Even with the bump that Fred Thompson got last week after his official announcement, and with John McCain's bounce this week (see Gallup here), Scott Rasmussen still believes that this is a three person race on the GOP side, with no clear frontrunner. Each of the three that Rasmussen mentions (Rudy Giuliani, Thompson, and Mitt Romney) have their strengths:

Thompson is currently seen by Republican voters as the most politically conservative candidate, clearly an asset in a party where more than 60% of Primary Voters are politically conservative.

Rudy Giuliani is seen by the GOP voters as the most electable Republican candidate.

Mitt Romney has pursued a different strategy. While struggling in the national polls, he has built a solid organization and is leading in the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary, and other early states.

But I think that the lead that Thompson has developed over Giuliani (28% - 19%) should worry the former mayor of New York. Nationwide, Giuliani is very similar to Hillary Clinton in that he has almost universal name recognition. Thompson does not, at least not as a Republican candidate for President. The more that the base of the GOP get to know Thompson's views, the more they will recognize that his brand of conservatism mimics theirs. At that point, the electability factor with Giuliani begins to even out.

When he was held captive in Vietnam, it probably looked like his time on earth was limited. After he got beat by Bush, it looked like he would be too old to run again. When he showed compassion for the problems of illegal immigrants, it looked like he had killed his political hopes. Yes, most of us believed that the hopes of John McCain being president of the United States had turned to dust.

Dust you say. Was it the phoenix that rose from the ashes. The bird is the symbol of immortality. Isn't Phoenix the capital of Arizona. Isn't McCain the senator from Arizona? Yes he is and like the phoenix, he has risen from the ashes.

In the latest Rasmussen report, McCain has begun to rise. He has pulled ahead of Mitt Romney (no big deal) and his "favorability rating" among Republicans has risen to 63%. This is just behind Fred Thompson (64%) and Rudy Giuliani (68%).

Even if McCain loses, it would be nice to see him in the race until the end. The man has fought for his country and not been afraid to say what he believes.

Senator John McCain has been slowly going up in the polls after having floundered terribly for several weeks. It would seem that by strongly staking out a pro Iraq War stance, McCain has gained a few points in the polls as well as gaining some of his favor with the public back. According to the AP, McCain has made several appearances with veteran's groups and has also campaigned with a banner that states "Never surrender."

This campaign strategy is far removed from the anti-war stances taken by Sen. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and sets him far apart from the Democratic field, but will it help him significantly in the Republican primary?

While the end result remains to be seen, a win would be doubtful Sen. John McCain has suffered a major setback on the presidential campaign trail as his poll numbers have been lagging in every poll in the nation. Most embarrassingly, McCain's numbers in is own home state has been disastrous. In fact, there was speculation at one point that McCain might not even win re-election for his Senate seat. For McCain, being tied directly to the failed Amnesty Bill was unforgivable in the eyes of the public. Will his public support for the war effort reverse the tide of negativity facing his campaign? It would seem that it will, but to what extent remains to be seen.

I read with interest NixGuy's post earlier this morning on Fred Thompson's post-announcement bump, and then took a more careful look at the polls he referenced. As I've explained before, I tend to like Rasmussen the most, since their accuracy over the past few election cycles has been better than any of the others. But the latest Gallup intrigued me, since it was solely a Republican poll -- so I didn't have to worry about weighting. This particular Gallup poll still has Rudy Giuliani up 7 points over Fred Thompson among those who are most likely to vote in the Republican primaries (33%-26%), but the underlying numbers suggest that Thompson has a much greater upside potential than does the former mayor of New York.

In short, the poll shows that Giuliani and John McCain's support levels have remained constant over the last few months. Mitt Romney came back down to his more or less constant level after a slight jump after the Iowa Straw Polls. The new "official" candidate in the mix is Senator Thompson. Since Gallup has included his name in their polling questions since it became apparent that he was serious about entering the race, his polling numbers have remained within a four point range. But the surprising figures from Gallup are those that show there are still an awful lot of voters out there who don't know enough about him for them to decide whether or not to support him.

It looks to be like about 5 points so far, according to a great post at NRO. Team Thompson put together an email saying this:

This week's round of new national polls is extremely encouraging. All are trending up for Fred Thompson. The CBS/NYTimes poll shows a gain of 15 points from a month ago. CNN shows us in a statistical tie for the lead, and the Rasmussen poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Fred Thompson in the lead.

I'll put the tables after the bump. Basically what we are looking at is a quick 5 points after the announcement. I don't think it's finished though.

• Thompson took his support directly from Rudy and is ahead or tied in 2 of the 4 polls.
• McCain seems to have stopped his downward momentum and may have restored it a bit. He's still finished.
• Romney is going nowhere. Fast.

Looks to me like a Rudy Giuliani vs. Fred Thompson race. Team Thompson taking easy shots can't hurt.

Mitt Romney's response? Polls don't matter. Politicians say that when they are losing.

The latest USA Today poll has Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee all gaining while Mitt Romney falls 4%. Fred Thompson only gained 3% in this poll taken over the weekend, the first since he announced he's a candidate. Pretty modest numbers for a new candidate. The numbers also suggest as I noted earlier that McCain is indeed back in the race and must now be repositioned back into the top tier.

However, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Thompson leading Giuliani 26% to 22% meaning Fred took some votes from America's Mayor. The Rasmussen poll has historically had Giuliani closer to the field than others so no great change. That's a four point jump for Thompson, not a significant leap but something he may be able to build on.

With regard to Fred Thompson, I expected to see at least an 8-10 point surge after his announcement, but his long, drawn out pre-campaign nullified any great bump. The numbers I find intriguiging for Thompson is the high percentage who don't know him:

Thompson is significantly less well known than Giuliani or McCain - 28% of Republicans say they've never heard of Thompson, compared with 8% for Giuliani and 9% for McCain.

Among those Republicans who know all four leading contenders, Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied. In a head-to-head race among all GOP voters, Giuliani bests Thompson by 13 points, 53%-40%.

How can 28% not know who Fred is? That says to me that he was not very effective in getting his name out over the summer, a major campaign flaw and unforgiveable for a candidate who has been on a top-rated show for a couple of years. Apparently, those who do know of Thompson like him as he is tied with Rudy in that category.

Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo all posted the usual horrid numbers. It's surprising that Ron Paul hasn't broken 4% in any USA Today poll given his supposed clout in the race and his landslide victories in text and internet polls. I guess it doesn't translate to the real world.

I, and others, had John McCain politically dead not so long ago. It seems that those rumors were premature.

McCain's campaign suffered greatly in the summer by his steadfastness on the "shamnesty" bill. He worked in concert with President Bush, Teddy Kennedy and others to push the bill through that was hated by conservatives and was not accepted by centrists who were wary of the language and intent. Talk radio and the right-wing blogosphere upbraided McCain on a daily basis and his poll numbers dropped quickly. He's taken quite a beating at this site as well.

Here we are with the summer over and the real campaign about to begin and the feeling is that McCain is building up some momentum. His performance during the last debate showed him as a funny guy but also serious when it comes to the war in Iraq and the greater War on Terror. In other words, it was the relaxed, loose John McCain, not the McCain who seems stiff and uncomfortable much of the time. It seems as though he enjoys being in the pack rather than the lead. During the 2000 run, he was looser and ran a decent campaign with the exception of his irritating habit of sticking to his talking points instead of ad libbing.

From the Washington Wire, Fred Thompson's early stats:

Since midnight, some 13,195 people have registered at Thompson's Web site, and he's raked in more than $300,000 in online donations. The site has received 126,000 unique visitors and Thompson's 15-minute announcement video was seen 110,000 times, Thompson aides report.

Thompson's (newest) campaign manager Bill Lacy briefed reporters on the bus and said that he thinks the campaign is off to "a fabulous start."

Of course, considering his job, that's exactly what you would expect him to say. But there's no doubt that Fred is dominating the news cycle, as just a casual glance at the political sites and headlines will tell you. But is Fred just a flash in the pan that will burn brightly but far too quickly? Or does he have real staying power.

I do believe he's here to stay, but the buzz must translate into poll numbers, dollars, and volunteers. We'll know whether thats happened in a month or so. Snapshots of the first day of campaigning tell us that buzz has been achieved, but we already knew that.

It's been fun pointing out the signposts that mark the way to John McCain's withdrawal from the presidential race. Here's another one, a Rasmussen poll for Arizona:

Arizona is the home state for John McCain, but Fred Thompson is the strongest GOP Presidential candidate in the state at this time.

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that Thompson leads Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton by seventeen percentage points, 51% to 34%. Thompson will be formally announcing his candidacy this week.

McCain's edge over Hillary Clinton was 46% to 36%. Which means that John McCain lost 5 points against Fred Thompson in his home state. Clearly John McCain is very much over. I am now intensely interested in the 3rd quarter fundraising numbers for the McCain campaign.

Despite the best efforts of our esteemed Democratic leadership, the American public believes that yes, we can win the war in Iraq:

A majority of Americans - 54% - believe the United States has not lost the war in Iraq, but there is dramatic disagreement on the question between Democrats and Republicans, a new UPI/Zogby Interactive poll shows. While two in three Democrats (66%) said the war effort has already failed, just 9% of Republicans say the same.

The poll comes ahead of a September report to Congress by David Petraeus, commander of the multi-national force in Iraq, on the progress of the so-called surge in quelling attacks by insurgents and creating an atmosphere where the new Iraqi government can develop.

The good news for Senator Reid and Speaker Pelosi is that 86% of the people in their own party believe the surge is not working so their constant refrain of retreat and loss is working on the party which is heavily invested in our losing. At least someone in the country is actually paying attention to them.

The media has been beating the drum of losing so incessantly that it seems people just stopped paying attention to them. Perhaps they're reading alternate coverage that paints a more realistic picture of the actual situation, one in which we are in fact making progress but still have a ways to go.