There's little doubt now that Fred Thompson is seriously considering a run for the presidency. What would be the impact of such a run on the Republican side of the race?
First, Thompson's entry would likely be the a huge blow for candidates like Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback who are attempting to fill the hole left by George Allen's demise. With Rudy Giuliani and John McCain out in front, and other conservative sidelined for various reasons, there's clearly a niche for a traditional conservative candidate. But Romney and Brownback have not yet filled it, which is probably why we see the Thompson boomlet. His candidacy would end Brownback's hopes and make Romney's position quite precarious. It would probably also end speculation about a Newt Gingrich candidacy.
Second, Thompson's entry would probably be a set-back for McCain. Early polls show Thompson taking more support from Giuliani than from McCain, but that probably reflects Giuliani's position as a front-runner with more "soft" support than McCain. Over time, I think Thompson's presence might well erode McCain's position (and he has less support to spare than Rudy does) because Thompson has more similarities to his ex-colleague in the Senate than to the former New York mayor. And reports that McCain seriously considered becoming a Democrat in 2001 might cause some of his support to peel away sooner rather than later.
Thus, though it's far too early to predict this, it requires little strain to imagine a race that comes down to Thompson vs. Giuliani -- in other words a fairly traditional conservative with some centrist tendencies against a centrist with some strong conservative tendencies.
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. Not sure any GOP candidate will be acceptable to GOP base, but this campaign is going to won in the moderate Republican suburbs of California, New York and Illinois where Rudy is strong. If you think McCain has it bad, Obama is getting clobbered in the news at http://www.solidpolitics.com
Bill at 1:22PM on Mar 29th 2007
2. This guy is another self serving blowhard like Bush. He IS NOT LIKE THE CHARACTER OF CHARACTER he portrays on TV.
Anne at 4:28PM on Mar 30th 2007
3. And you know this because??? He did a very creditable job in the Senate and didn't get caught up in dirty politics as too many have done. Mitt is okay, but I'd also like to see former Governor of Arkansas, a truly decent and educated man, Michael Huckabee run. He cleaned up a lot of things in AR and most of us have deep respect for him and his character. We've lived in many, many states, we can tell you he is one of the best of the best.
Rachel at 8:01PM on Mar 30th 2007
4. No, I don't want another actor. And I don't want Mitt Romney. I understand he is wanting Jeb Bush as VP. Here in Florida, we suffered 8 years of Bush and want to retire the name. Voters approved a school class size reduction, and he tried every way he could to sabotage it. Then he tried to make Teri Schievo a ward of the court. Please God, no more Bushs in public office.
Virginia Hoyt at 10:50AM on Mar 31st 2007
5. I have been endorsing a Fred Dalton Thompson candidacy for months now. He is the only true conservative that has the ability to win the presidency, I believe. Rudy Giuliani, on the other hand, has a) never served on a federal level, b) claims to be a fiscal conservative (I'm not so sure he is) and c) is a social liberal. How can the true conservative Republicans possibly vote for him? I like McCain, the centrist, but I believe he may have shot himself in the foot one too many times to get the nomination. As for the other wannabes, none have the stature, experience, gravitas, national recognition and international respect, or the ability to solidify the party to win the nomination and the election. Yes, Republicans, Fred's the man. Fred Thompson for POTUS!
Don Naylor at 10:06PM on Mar 31st 2007