New York mayor Michael Bloomberg has quit the Republican Party. Normally, I would find this to be great news. I really like Mayor Bloomberg. Even when he was a Republican, while I hated nearly every Republican politician on the national level, Bloomberg was still one of my favorite elected officials in the whole country.

The fact that he is leaving the GOP is another reason to really like the guy. He seems to be taking a principled stand against a party that has spun out of control. It's good for him and good for educating the public about what the Republican Party has become.

Here's the problem. If he runs for president -- and this is a clear indication that he is leaning in that direction (please, there are almost no principled stands in politics, not even from Bloomberg, so this is far more likely a precursor to a Bloomberg run as an independent) -- he could throw a giant monkey-wrench into the works.

I think a Democrat has an overwhelmingly good chance of winning the general election in 2008. Now that the Republicans have cost themselves a huge chunk of the Hispanic vote, on top of everything else, I'm not sure it's mathematically possible for them to win. Unless ... there is a third party candidate.

Bloomberg is fiscally conservative and socially moderate. This means two things. One, he is where a great majority of the country is politically. Two, he could cost Democrats a lot more votes because the crazy Christian right would never vote for the socially moderate/progressive Bloomberg. But Democrats and independents attracted by his sane fiscal policy might get drawn to him.

On the other hand, of course, he might attract the long lost remnants of the Northeast Republicans (what I used to be) and peel away all reasonable people from what is left of the Republican Party.

Overall, I don't want to take that chance. The worst case scenario is that the reasonable Democratic and independent candidates split up the vote and another Republican extremist wins by holding on to their insane and inflexible base. What a disaster that would be for the country.

If Bloomberg enters the race he might be a centrist candidate so attractive that I might be tempted to vote for him. And that's exactly why I don't want him in the race. The last time independents and Democrats split votes between Nader and Gore, we got George W. Bush. Need I say more?

The Young Turks