It's impossible to predict the future with certainty (obviously) and many things can change between now and November. But if things continue as they are, the Republicans are going to get steamrolled in 2008. And there would have to be some real dramatic change on the world scene for there to be a different outcome. All things being equal, they are on their way to a loss like they've never seen before.

Here is why:




Now, new polls are showing voters preferring Democrats by nearly 20 points to Republicans. That's unheard of. Not chastened by any of this, the GOP continues to head in the wrong direction. Instead of finally coming back toward the center, they keep going further and further right. By the time they get their wake up call in 2008, it's going to be too late. It's going to take them decades to recover from this mistake. They have gone so far to the right, they went right off the cliff.

Young Turks on You Tube and Watch the Live Show Here

I am usually not one to pay much attention to the news media manufactured controversies over a remark made by a politician and exploited by opponents. But I feel compelled to comment on the latest episode because the issue at the center of the controversial remarks can be construed, in some ways, as the most important issue in the entire campaign (as unbelievable as that sounds.)

I believe the Democratic candidate is likely to thrash John McCain, no matter who it is. Hillary Clinton would beat Senator McCain handily, mainly because of Senator McCain. He has tied himself to this Iraq War and is telling anyone who'll listen that he plans to stay in Iraq for another hundred years. It's hard to imagine a more unpopular position to base your campaign on in the general election.

Though Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would score easy points against McCain on this count, Obama has an advantage here. Sen. McCain can turn around and accuse Sen. Clinton of being just as complicit in the drive to war because she also voted for the resolution that authorized the Iraq War. Whereas, Obama can say McCain showed poor judgment in going into Iraq in the first place and McCain has no defense to that. He could argue that the Iraq War has gone great, and I hope he does. Good luck with that strategy.

Why would Democrats want to neutralize this obvious advantage they have by picking a candidate that also voted for the war?

Secondly, the right-wing base is very displeased with John McCain. Conservative talk show hosts, pundits and bloggers have spent the last couple of months pummeling McCain. The only thing that can re-energize them to back his candidacy is -- Hillary Clinton.

Now, this is a little unfair to Sen. Clinton because I don't think she has done anything to earn that animus. She's polarizing only because they have spent the better part of two decades attacking her and her husband, and trying to turn the American people against them. Barack Obama might seem polarizing after eight straight years of right-wing attacks, too.

However, fair or unfair, the right-wing can't wait to go to war against Hillary. On the other hand, if it's Obama versus McCain, I think they might dislike McCain more. This has got to be a major liability when you are trying to rally your own side in a general election.

Finally, according to the polls, voters are overwhelmingly in favor of change this election cycle. If Obama is running, he is clearly the candidate of change. If Clinton is running, McCain could almost make an argument that you would get more change from his presidency than you would under another Clinton administration. I think that argument would be wrong, but why open the door?

Overall, Democrats can make it easier or harder on themselves this year by picking one of the two remaining candidates. I'm confident they'll win either way, but why take the risk? Obama is the better candidate to run against McCain, who looks like he is going to be the Republican candidate in the fall. By picking Obama the Democrats can make a strong and persuasive case that there is only one candidate who can bring real change to Washington -- Barack Obama.

Watch The Young Turks Here

There are two critical things that will happen within the next year that will decide the fate of this country. One is the 2008 election. I believe the current Republicans have slipped over the edge. They are authoritarians with serious fascist tendencies.

I was a Republican my whole life until the Bush administration and I was called fascist countless times, so I don't use the word lightly. Even Sandra Day O'Connor, the former Supreme Court Justice that put Bush into office warned about the beginnings of dictatorship in this country.

Republican nominees like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are constantly justifying and excusing torture, spying on innocent Americans, bombing countries that are absolutely no threat to us and running roughshod over the United States constitution. None of these are conservative principles. The Republican Party has become radicalized.

Chris Dodd put a "hold" on the latest FISA bill in the Senate this week. This bill was yet another sell out to the administration in a long line of sell-outs and cave-ins by the Democrats. I was ecstatic to see someone stepped up to fight it and stop this capitulation in its tracks. And that someone was Senator Chris Dodd.

So, today I have a little more hope in America. We explain exactly what happened below:



Watch More Young Turks Here

Here's the Thomas Edsall piece at Huffington Post we were referring to in the video above.

The Young Turks Channel

I'll tell you what we want, what we really, really want. The dream team. Gore-Obama 2008. GOROBAMA!

Deep in our hearts, that's what we all want. Obama sounds so good. His speech on foreign policy yesterday hit so many good notes. But we're all a little worried about two things. Does he have enough experience to win? In other words, is he quite there yet? And does he have the courage to do what is right even if it might not be popular at the time?

Continue reading an article explaining why it has to be Gorobama!

Watch The Young Turks

New York mayor Michael Bloomberg has quit the Republican Party. Normally, I would find this to be great news. I really like Mayor Bloomberg. Even when he was a Republican, while I hated nearly every Republican politician on the national level, Bloomberg was still one of my favorite elected officials in the whole country.

The fact that he is leaving the GOP is another reason to really like the guy. He seems to be taking a principled stand against a party that has spun out of control. It's good for him and good for educating the public about what the Republican Party has become.

Here's the problem. If he runs for president -- and this is a clear indication that he is leaning in that direction (please, there are almost no principled stands in politics, not even from Bloomberg, so this is far more likely a precursor to a Bloomberg run as an independent) -- he could throw a giant monkey-wrench into the works.

It's not Al Gore that needs redemption. It's America. There isn't a sane person alive that doesn't think we would have been better off if we elected Al Gore instead of George Bush in 2000 (and of course we did -- more Americans voted for him even back then). Now America might get a second chance. It's time for redemption. It's time to get it right now.

Watch Al Gore in the speech below and see what a man of strength and principle looks like. Watch what this country might have been -- and might still be.

>

You can watch the whole speech here.

The Young Turks