It's impossible to predict the future with certainty (obviously) and many things can change between now and November. But if things continue as they are, the Republicans are going to get steamrolled in 2008. And there would have to be some real dramatic change on the world scene for there to be a different outcome. All things being equal, they are on their way to a loss like they've never seen before.

Here is why:




Now, new polls are showing voters preferring Democrats by nearly 20 points to Republicans. That's unheard of. Not chastened by any of this, the GOP continues to head in the wrong direction. Instead of finally coming back toward the center, they keep going further and further right. By the time they get their wake up call in 2008, it's going to be too late. It's going to take them decades to recover from this mistake. They have gone so far to the right, they went right off the cliff.

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New York mayor Michael Bloomberg has quit the Republican Party. Normally, I would find this to be great news. I really like Mayor Bloomberg. Even when he was a Republican, while I hated nearly every Republican politician on the national level, Bloomberg was still one of my favorite elected officials in the whole country.

The fact that he is leaving the GOP is another reason to really like the guy. He seems to be taking a principled stand against a party that has spun out of control. It's good for him and good for educating the public about what the Republican Party has become.

Here's the problem. If he runs for president -- and this is a clear indication that he is leaning in that direction (please, there are almost no principled stands in politics, not even from Bloomberg, so this is far more likely a precursor to a Bloomberg run as an independent) -- he could throw a giant monkey-wrench into the works.