Since his election as Montana's Governor in 2004, Brian Schweitzer has been a poster boy for the Western Democratic movement -- supposedly a new breed of Democrats, more comfortable in Wranglers and Carhartt jackets than three piece suits. For a while, it looked like Schweitzer's popularity in his home state, combined with his significant fundraising prowess, had scared away all would-be challengers. But these past weeks have seen the emergence of a potentially strong candidate: State Senator Roy Brown of Billings.Election observers in Montana know that Brown has a few assets: a tenacious work ethic, a semi-retired status that will allow him to campaign full-time, a strong fundraising base, an ability to self-fund if he needs to, and a base in the major swing county of Yellowstone, where he represents the heart of Billings, Montana's largest city.

And there's no doubt that he's already working hard. As Montana Headlines, a conservative Montana blog, has been tracking, Brown is stumping hard.

Still, Brian Schweitzer has big approval ratings, a ton of cash on hand, and the ability to take advantage of a big Get Out The Vote effort for Democrats headed by Senator Max Baucus, who will raise and spend millions.

My early prediction is this: Without any good reason to fire Brian Schweitzer, Roy Brown is best off using this race to build a statewide profile, stay positive, and develop a likeable profile among the electorate. He could also go negative hard and try to win -- but this doesn't have to be his last race. And getting nasty could help guarantee that it would be.