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Don't Dismiss Ron Paul or John Edwards
Jan 4th 2008 1:18PM
Filed Under:eJohn Edwards, Ron Paul, Chris Dodd, 2008 President
"The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." - Kevin Spacey as Verbal Kint, The Usual Suspects
In this case, the Devil is the Mainstream media, and they're trying to convince you that Ron Paul and John Edwards don't exist. Coverage of the Iowa Caucuses has been replete with the usual spin, and Rumpelstiltskin couldn't unspin all of it, but to me, the spin on Edwards and Paul rings particularly false.
First, in the case of Edwards, although the final tally shows Barack Obama leading Edwards by almost 8 points, but keeping in mind the caucus rules and the fact that Edwards led in entrance polls, albeit by a slim margin, and it's hard to consider this a death blow for Edwards. How does he beat Hillary Clinton, yet she's considered "viable" by the MSM yet Edwards should pack up and go home?
Ron Paul is a different story. The Mainstream Media isn't even telling him to pack up and go home, because that would require them to say his name. Maybe they think they're protecting us, but that isn't their job. Perhaps their feeling, to paraphrase Mr. Kint once more:
Keaton always said, "I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of him." Well, I believe in God -- and the only thing that scares me... is Ron Paul."
The spin in this case bothers me because all of the pundits and media types know that the Iowa Caucus results are less an expression of popular will and more of a reaching of consensus. The fact that Ron Paul pulled 10% in Iowa was amazing to me, since he barely campaigned there and he more than doubled Giuliani's result. Once again, the MSM discounts this by saying that Rudy didn't campaign in Iowa. So, they just didn't know who Rudy was?
I know, I sound like a Paul-ite. I'm not, but I also don't like the media shaping the campaign narrative to suit it's own whims. Taking nothing away from Obama, who I think is a great candidate, I thought Edwards and Paul were big surprises. Coupled with Huckabee's runaway victory over Mitt Romney, I think the narrative, or a narrative, should be that populism is playing a big part in this election, and that we ought to keep an eye on Ron Paul and John Edwards.
Luckily for Ron Paul, his support seems to be immune to media spin. I would look for him to do much better in New Hampshire. It is a either a failure of imagination or a deliberate manipulation for the media to count him out. The Republican field is a mess, and a relatively unknown quantity like Paul, with a rabid support base, could easily gain momentum as the sunshine of frontrunner status shrinks Huckabee.
For John Edwards, fighting the mainstream narrative could be tougher, but if he's going to succeed anywhere, independent-minded New Hampshire is a good place to do it. I saw Edwards' speech last night, and there was a lot to like about it. If Huckabee's campaign has proven anything, it's that funding isn't the factor it once was.
My predictions for New Hampshire? I think John Edwards will finish second to Barack Obama, and I think Ron Paul will be a surprise in third place. Now, I know, you're thinking, "Isn't this the guy who endorsed Chris Dodd?" Yes, I am that guy, but I also knew that he had little chance. This is different.
Both Ron Paul and John Edwards have continued to enjoy relatively strong support, despite the media's insistence that they've got no chance. I think New Hampshire is where they put the media on notice.
Tommy's Mom's Blog, The Lady of Light
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Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 4)joemama2:01PMJan 4th 2008
Ron Paul will do much better in states where 60% of the GOP voters are NOT mindless evangelical drones who vote for someone who believes in Jesus, not someone who is qualified to be President. Didn't these evangelicals learn anything from electing GW twice?
David S.2:03PMJan 4th 2008
I agree. Edwards and Paul are still viable. Hey, at least Democrats are still embracing Edwards, and Obama, wonderful as he is, has not been anointed yet. Obama is a great speaker, but Edwards is no slouch on that score either. I consider Edwards far more viable than Hillary Clinton. I personally think she is history.
It is, unfortunately, the mainstream Republican party that is obvioulsy trying to push Ron Paul out. FOX should be ashamed of themselves for excluding him from the upcoming debate. It makes them look like they have an agenda (I don't know if they do, I am not a paranoid anti-Fox guy) How can a guy that got 10% of the vote in Iowa be irrelevant?
1-4-Romney2:25PMJan 4th 2008
Tommy,
I agree with you on Edwards. I think he really surprised the pundits and media by pulling off a second place finish. He was in the shadows to Obamas victory and the history that made. I know I was surprised I thought it would be a war with a slim victory for Hill and a lagging third for Edwards. So, he should have received more media back pats for his finish. It is funny how they discounted the second place finishers on both sides of the race! One thing is for sure on the left. …. this can not stay a trio. They are splitting the votes too evenly. When the trio ends ….which of the top two will pick up the thirds constituents is going give us a clearer picture of where the Dems stand.
On Ron Paul I have to say he is still not elect-able. The appeal of his message is limited to a small slice of voters. However, that 5-15% of voters are HARD CORE and every single one of them will be at every single poll, vote, etc… If nothing else they are completely devoted but I wouldn’t expect him to get higher than 15% in any state and in most to hover around 5%. Huckabee and McCain would hand the victory to the left BUT Ron Paul would pitch it to em’ 90 MPH.
Davidg2:26PMJan 4th 2008
You gotta be kidding.
Edwards v. Paul?
Real candidates, real issues, real debate, real differences settled like gentlemen?
No mudslinging, no drama, no backbiting, no scandal?
Two good men with different ideas running for the good of the country?
This is the USA, the media will never stand for that!
Mikew2:27PMJan 4th 2008
Ron Paul is apparently the only candidate running that recognizes the importance that this country is a Republic that was setup to protect everyone from abuses of a Federal government. Hes the only one that would return the unconstitutional president of powers that Bush has trumped for his tenure.
Any other candidate will be find with keeping things as they are and thanking Bush on the way out. Agree or disagree with candidates now you will ultimately be on the loosing end of that arrangement.
Cecil Jones2:28PMJan 4th 2008
Funny that you touched on the natural relationship that exists between Ron Paul and John Edwards supporters. These are the Defenders of the Constitution willing to pick up pitchforks on both sides of the isle. As Obama reached across the isle for Mushy Moderates, Progressives, or Independents who rejected the political process; these true patriot took action to begin movements against the selfish status quo to fight for America. Whereas Obama found support on the other side willing to cross-over to determine the Democratic nominee, the Paul and Edwards supporters played by the rules. Joe Lieberman politics are the reason the status quo is failing. If Bill Clinton had resigned, we would have avoided all this pain. Edwards stopped the "Inevitable" march by Clinton back to power. Ron Paul's Patriots were busy trying to reform the Republican Party. What would happen if these forces united! That's real "Power to the People!" It would be a "Revolution not Televised."
Mikew2:32PMJan 4th 2008
Ron Paul is apparently the only candidate running that recognizes the importance that this country is a Republic that was setup to protect everyone from abuses of a Federal government. Hes the only one that
would return the unconstitutional precedent of powers that Bush has trumped for his tenure.
Any other candidate will be find with keeping things as they are and thanking Bush on the way out. Agree or disagree with candidates now you will ultimately be on the loosing end of that arrangement. Ron Paul inst about pushing an agenda or leaving people out on the streets. Its about protection from tyranny that has become the status quo. Its unshakable.
If he is the Republican Nominee it will win him the election easier than any other possible candidate and the Democrats can't fight that.
paul2:42PMJan 4th 2008
One of the candidates refuses to recite the pledge of allegiance to the flag, turns his back on the flag when National Antrhem is played--- attended Jihad extremist school in Jakarta, refuses to be sworn in on the Bible, and only promise is "CHANGE". His name is Obama... the democrat.
Mehul2:52PMJan 4th 2008
I think the other Rep candidates should boycott the Fox forum on the grounds that Fox is being unfair. Especially considering the Julie got his arse handed to him by Ron Paul...and still they'll interview Julie but not Ron Paul. They won't even mention Paul's name on their forum.
If the other candidates had any integrity they'd refure to attend the forum. But that's giving them too much credit. They're all sore losers.
When President Ron Paul will host the white house press conferences he should only allow REAL reporters in and exclude all Fox "reporters".
Ciao!
Michael3:24PMJan 4th 2008
Ron Paul will be included in the ABC debate, thats a small victory.
Wish Belkin5:57PMJan 4th 2008
Ron Paul for President !!
Terri6:12PMJan 4th 2008
I personally would NEVER vote for a person that does not believe in the Bible,but instead believes in the Koran. All the unbelievable death and violence that I have seen from people that live by the Koran, frightens me, I do not believe that it is a Religion of peace !!
Mr. Clark6:18PMJan 4th 2008
Tommy Christopher,
Ron Paul has been surprising, that's for sure. I think the reason why it is so easy to discount John Edwards is the national polls. Perhaps that will change soon, but Elizabeth is back on the trail...which could send his campaign back into a daily negative war with his opponents.
You know, I should have read more about the Iowa Caucus before last night. I was surprised to see that Obama got 16 delegates, Clinton 15 (even though in third) and Edwards 14. The part that really confused me was that 57 delegates were available to Democrats and only 45 were given out.
But, here is the delegate count for the Democrats after the Iowa Caucus (this includes super delegates):
"Obama's victory was much narrower in the race for delegates. The AP analysis estimated Obama would win 16 delegates, compared to 15 for Clinton and 14 for Edwards. Clinton will win more delegates than Edwards, despite getting fewer votes, because of Iowa's complicated caucus system.
In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton leads with 175 delegates, including superdelegates, followed by Obama with 75 and Edwards with 46."
So, I wouldn't count out Sen. Clinton just yet either.
Sincerely and respectfully,
Mr. Clark
maken6:32PMJan 4th 2008
I don't know how this will turn out, but here is facebook's list of candidate support vs abc news' early december poll. If you are a facebook user you can find it under their US Politics application. FB is also part of ABC's Debate tomorrow night.
ABC News | Facebook Election Pulse (Presidential Supporters)See More
Facebook Supporters* ABC News Poll**
Democrats:
Barack Obama 57.93% 23%
Hillary Clinton 17.97% 53%
John Edwards 9.13% 10%
Dennis Kucinich 6.48% 2%
Joe Biden 2.88% 3%
Bill Richardson 2.49% 3%
Mike Gravel 2.36% NA
Chris Dodd 0.77% NA
Republicans:
Ron Paul 37.74% 3%
Mike Huckabee 16.46% 19%
Mitt Romney 14.49% 17%
Fred Thompson 10.85% 14%
John McCain 10.42% 12%
Rudy Giuliani 9.12% 25%
Duncan Hunter 0.91% 2%
* Based on number of supporters each candidate has on Facebook
** ABC News/Washington Post National GOP and Democratic Primary polls respectively among likely Republican primary voters (+/- 5.5% margin of error) and likely Democratic primary voters (+/- 4.5% margin of error). Reported Dec. 6-9, 2007. More info here.
maken6:57PMJan 4th 2008
Also, I do find it amusing how most news sources (like fox) and polls (like http://www.strawpoll08.com/ ) Refuse to even mention Ron Paul. It is amazing that he has so much support dispite getting so little coverage and not even being included in polls.
It just goes to show though the power of the internet. You can reach such a large number of people cheaply and practicaly free online. In many cases it is better than being frequently featured on TV and in the papers. Though debates like the ABC one still hold more power as you will have a non-internet impowered group watching along with internet users and will get to see each candidate in action.
Jeff Winchell7:21PMJan 4th 2008
I've donated to both Edwards and Paul. I'd love to see a matchup of those two. In many ways, they have completely different approaches to solve very important problems they passionately believe in. That's fine with me.
I expect the MainStream Media to continue to ignore them. At least Edwards keeps attracting 25-30% of voters and at least Paul keeps attracting huge numbers of donors. I will keep my hopes up that they can continue to maintain their campaigns for the long run.
christ7jon7:29PMJan 4th 2008
I hope to hell that McCain doesn't run away with the nomination--he's a clone of GWB.
ruthe8:17PMJan 4th 2008
kudos to you i think john edwards will be the spoiler...hillary is tosst the republicans will chew her up and spit her out..as for oboma i think the man is brilliant an excellent orator but much too philisophical he has no down to earth theories merely dreams edwards has both vote edwards he's the only one that can beat any republican
Dan8:40PMJan 4th 2008
Boycott News Corp. in all its despicable forms!! Fox announced before the Iowa caucuses, that they would only take the top 5 of 10 Republican candidates, yet Ron Paul is still excluded from attending and he took fifth!!
They have a right to censor who they please, only not when they are operating as a public service and calling it news. It is NOT news. It's manipulation of reality to suit their political agenda. And when you own TV stations all over the world, and conspire to filter only news that is in the interest of your advertisers....well then, they have the power to shape our beliefs and a whole. Its time to wake up and smell the fascism. WE are all being lied to.
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AAmerican1:57PMJan 4th 2008
Tommy Christopher is right on the target, in fact a bullseye. It is such a true and honest shot that we should all take serious note. Paul and Edwards are in the fray, and I hope there to stay. The "divisive" media, would have them back home sitting in front of a warming fire. It takes more than millions of U.S. dollars to run for president. Is it fox news and cnn who decides? This is a major danger to our Republic.