Good evening, fellow debate junkies, and welcome to the Republican Presidential Candidate's Debate, or as I like to call it, "The Race for Runner-Up!" With a scattered field and a party identity that's all akimbo, I thought, what better way to kick things off than with another cut from South Carolina victor John McCain's muse, Abba?

Update: Not only did Ron Paul place 2nd in MSNBC's viewer poll, 1 point off the lead, but he won AOL News' post-debate poll by a wide margin.

9:02 The Rules: The first rule of GOP debate is...you don't talk about GOP debate.
The second rule of GOP debate is...you don't talk about GOP debate.

9:03 Mitt, how do you like Bush's plan? Mitt: Mine was Bushier.

9:05 John McCain wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. I agree, I don't want the Hiltons to have to stop giving me piles of cash. Anti-pork stance is a good thing.

9:07 Dead Man Walkin'! Rudy's right, if we tax corporations too much, i.e. at all, they'll just go sell their stuff to all those obese Bangladeshis with heaps of disposable income.

9:09 McCain: Hail Reagan, full of grace...

9:11 No Rudy? Huckabee making some sense, an infrastructure project. He correctly points out that Bush's "stimulus package" will stimulate the economy of China as much as ours.

9:13 Mitt plays to his strength, the economy in Mass. Ooo, now he calls McCain out for opposing the Bush tax cuts before he supported them.

9:14 Russert hands McCain a brick to throw at Romney, are "fees" the same as "taxes"? McCain blows it to hear himself talk.

9:16 Ron Paul! Should government stimulate the economy? Yes, but not by setting interest rates, but by cutting taxes, getting rid of regulations (Chinese toys, anyone?), do away with the Federal Reserve.

9:18 Rudy, should banks beg Arabs for money? 9/11! And, yes. Now he's comparing Saudi Arabia to Japan. Sure, dead ringers.

9:21 The Democrats lead by 18 points on the economy. Bush is a disaster. Why elect a Republican? McCain: Because the "Democrat Party" will do things differently than we will. He accuses the Dems of overspending, but gives Ted Stevens' bridge as an example. (He's a Republican)

9:23 Huckabee: He's right about the problem with the economy.

9:25 Romney just accused the Republicans off acting like Democrats. He's hitting that "change" drum, but he, like all of them, says we can fix it by cutting spending. That's like me saying I'll save up for a Mercedes by canceling my Cinemax.

OK, I'm on a 3 minute delay now, I had to pause.

9:30 Ron Paul is the taxpayer's best friend.

9:32 McCain: Iraq is gong great, we must never leave.He thinks eventually, Iraqis will stop killing Americans. He's proud of the troops.

9:35 Mitt wants to add 100,000 active duty troops. Mitt wants to shore up the GI bill. Mitt says the Democrats want to get out of Iraq, no matter the consequences. I don't remember that part. Mitt gets a laugh calling Hillary, "General Hillary Clinton."

9:40 Russert says the war wasn't worth the price in blood and treasure, and the crowd applauds! McCain says the war was worth it, using a dialed-back assessment of Saddam.

9:43 Rudy says it was worth it.

9:44 Ron Paul gets the applause! No, it wasn't. Al Quaida wasn't there, they are now, we shouldn't have started it. Go Ron Paul!

9:45 Huckabee says our troops were worth sacrificing in an "Easter Egg Hunt." ?!?

9:46 Mitt tries to thread the needle, saying it was a good idea, poorly executed.

Break time, Brian Williams warns the audience to stop applauding Ron Paul.

Awesome! The candidates ask each other questions. Mitt just name-checked all of the poisonous Chinese toys, and wants to know how we stay competitive, not how we stop getting poisoned. WTF?

Rudy: Makes weird, lame joke. Rudy says we should be able to sue in China, more regulation, and stop the poison. So, we should send the Democrats to China.

McCain to Huckabee: Fair Tax - Doesn't it hit lower class Americans?

Huck: No more IRS. He quotes Dr Phil. He gets a laugh saying "Prostitutes, Pimps, drug dealers. Non-Republicans." He answers the inequity question by saying that the removal of "embedded" taxes would balance that out.

9:54 Ron Paul asks McCain if he would retain the president's working group on finance, and would there be more sunshine?

McCain: Um, no.

Huckabee to Mitt: Assault weapons ban?

Mitt supports the assault weapons ban, points out that it was a bipartisan compromise. He says enforce existing laws. People have the right to bear arms, for varmint-hunting and sech.

9:58 Rudy to Mitt: Rudy asks and answers and asks a long question about a national catastrophic fund?

Mitt: Well, we'll get them insurance. Mitt tries to filibuster about Healthcare, but Rudy dissolves the comparison.

McCain jumps in to explain how we should trust insurance companies more than the government that they want to run.

10:03 Rudy on Global warming question from Russert: We should do it all without any laws, only incentives. Coal!

McCain favors cap 'n trade. Opposes Cap'n Crunch. Actually, he sounds pretty reasonable on this stuff. He doesn't have a chance.

10:05 Rudy, your numbers are in the toilet, and Ron Paul is beating your ass. What up?

Rudy: We're gonna come back, like the Giants! (Who he'll root for until the Super Bowl, when he'll switch to New England)

10:08 McCain: Why would Republicans support you when you have some reasonable positions?

McCain: Boo! Terrorism! That, and I've saved them from Republicans time and again.

10:10 Mitt smacks Clinton! "The thought of Bill Clinton in the White House with nothing to do..." Russert asks him to explain, and he wimps out.
"Sending the same peopls back to the White House and expecting a different result..." Actually, they got pretty good results, Mitt.

Mitt won't say how much of his own dough he's spending on his campaign.

The Mormon question. 44% of idiots have a problem with it. Mitt thinks better of them. He should have told them to cram it. Sideways. With mustard.

Ron Paul: Abolish social security? Yes, but replace it with something else. He's right that inflation is outstripping benefits.

Huckabee: Throws a one-liner at Mitt about electing Huck and giving his money to his sons. Fair tax will fix everything, including Social Security.

10:21 Mitt, why do you hate Ronald Reagan? Compromise on personal accounts, retirement age, and using CPI to calculate benefits.

10:22 Rudy, why are you airing bilingual ads, when you want to require english for immigration? Rudy: Hey, they vote!

10:24 Russert tries to jam Rudy up with Cubans, wet foot/dry foot. Rudy: Because.

10:25 Huck, do you agree with Chuck Norris that McCain is too old? Huck cracks wise, then says no. McCain snorts when he laughs.

10:27 McCain is going to sic Sly Stallone on Norris.

The New York Times is endorsing McCain. Ooof! Williams reads the smackdown. Rudy: Times bad!

Mitt flips: Look at my record.

10:30 McCain, is your temper a problem? (snaps Williams' neck) McCain says 9/11 for Rudy.

10:34 Ron Paul, people worry that you won't stick with the party. Paul: I worry that they aren't sticking with the party, they don't act like Republicans. Why should people who support the Constitution be excluded?

The end. Major snoozefest. It's hard for me to judge the winner, beyond Ron Paul, who started several prohibited cheering jags. Scarborough calls it for Mitt Romney, I thought he handled himself well, I'd give him second. I think McCain made a better case for general election voters than primary.

Rudy Giuliani came off pretty moderate, which may play well in Florida, but all of the candidates were mellowed out compared to the Youtube debate.

Mitt Romney won the sound-bite debate with his crack about Bill Clinton, that will get huge play tomorrow. In a tight race in Florida, that could be the difference.

Thanks for joining me, let me know your thoughts on the debate, and Wish Belkin, a hearty "Ron Paul for President" to you.

Y'know what? Stay tuned. I wanna see the post-mortem. Huck is spinning fairy tales about Iraq.

Russert wonders how everyone but Ron Paul can back away from saying that Iraq was a good idea.

I want to see if the interview Ron Paul. It's true, they largely ignored him, even though he clearly was most in tune with that audience. Still, at least MSNBC had him on the stage.

Matthews is really giving Rudy the business on the 2nd amendment! It's like he thinks he's talking to Hillary! Did Rudy wear the wig? I actually think Rudy's pretty reasonable on this. Why are Republicans always about "Honoring our heroes" until they disagree with them, e.g. the cops on the assault weapons ban?

LOL, behind Scarborough, I see a "Colbert '08" and an "I heart Britney Spears" sign.

Oh, crap, Matthews is on to Hillary now. Let's see if he sticks up for her. Huh, Matthews makes a good observation, that Mitt Romney is talking like a Republican Barack Obama.

Still no Ron Paul, which would be fine if they also snubbed his whipping boy, Rudy Giuliani.

Bob, it's not laziness, it's not wanting you to wing one of my kids when you get scared by street toughs.

They're talking about Romney's crack again, this could end up buttressing Edwards' argument about her negatives. I do think the country is tired of the same old anti-Clinton noise, but that doesn't mean they'll turn it off.

Ron Paul? No, Andrea Mitchell. They're asking what's the story tonight. Um, did Ron Paul not mop the floor on every question? Not by a little, either.

Text 4 for Ron Paul to 622639 if you think he won. OK, I will. Quick, call all your friends. See if they'll report it.

Here are the RCP averages as of now, let's see who gets a bump from this debate. I say Romney and Paul.

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
Poll	Date	McCain	Romney	Giuliani	Huckabee	Paul	Thompson	Spread
RCP Average	01/20 to 01/23	24.5	23.5	18.8	15.5	4.3	5.7	McCain +1.0

Still waiting...Tucker thinks Huckabee won. Huck was charming and funny, and good on the economy, but his message is poison to the Republican faithful. Huck might win if the audience were all Democrats.

Y'know, John McCain seemed to be the new anointed, and he suffers with independents when compared to Ron Paul. But then again, they seem to be pushing Romney as the winner of this debate.

Romney is gonna get a lot of mileage out of that Clinton quote. Maddow and Buchanan are calling it for Mitt. I wonder if Rachel will bring up Ron Paul. Are you texting?

OK, I hate to sound like a broken record. I am by no means a Ron Paul booster, but I really don't get the Voldemort treatment. As a writer, this is undeniably a good story, no matter how you look at it. He's a revolutionary leader, a prophet, a kook, whatever, it. is.a. story! The guy beats the national frontrunner like a dirty rug in every primary, the debate crowds go wild whenever he opens his mouth, and he out-raises all of his opponents. How is that not a f__king story?

Thanks, Mike. Thanks for reading.

They're picking McCain apart now, still no Ron Paul.

Yeah! Romney 41% Ron Paul 40% in viewer poll! Huck 8% McCain 7% Giuliani 4%. Ha, and the A-holes didn't even interview him. You can only vote once in that poll, too. Wow. And the sample size was over 15,000, as opposed to the typical 900 or so from polling organizations.

Here's an earlier video on some late poll results showing Romney leading in Florida.

I'm going to keep this live for a few more minutes so you and I can talk a little. It's easier than leaving comments. What do you all think?

I have a question for the Paul and Romney supporters. Do you have any sort of kinship, given the raw deal your guys have gotten in the media? I know it's not the same thing, Ron Paul is ignored while Romney is dogged by smears about his religion, but is there a feeling of shared persecution there?

RomneyGirl, thanks for the input. Actually, you were the main reason I asked that question. I do wonder if that accounts for the 1-2 finish in that viewer poll. Congrats on your guy taking the lead in Florida. I think this sets him up well for Super Tuesday. Any chance he'll pick Ron Paul as a running mate?

OK, I'm going to go watch "A Daily Show." I will check back on the comments, so keep posting them, and nice work on that telephone poll!

Sy, the answer is yes. I did.

RG, I think the composition of Paul's support offers a partial explanation, but I don't think it accounts for a huge number like 40%, especially when you factor in how Paul obviously resonated with that audience.

9:40 am 1/25/08 Good morning, everyone. A couple of quick responses to comments, if I may. First of all, the MSNBC poll that I cited was not the online poll, but rather a telephone text messaging poll that only asked one question, "Who do you think won the debate?"

Secondly, there was this gem from David G.:

Of course it was too much to expect the blog on Ron Paul to actually be about Ron Paul. So happy another little aol blogging kid got a chance to vent and try to be clever. Now here's my vent.

I resent the hell out of somebody telling me I am an idiot because I have questions about the Mormon church (along with 44% of other Americans and probably more when they actually know what the Mormons believe). Somebody needs to ask "MoreMan" Romney if he believes that Joseph Smith sat behind a curtain and decypherd golden tablets that the wrestled from an angel named...this is good...MORONI. Then you need to ask yourself if you really want a president who actually believes that it happened.

I'm sure this same blogger will be wetting himself in 10 years when it's also rich and handsome John Travolta running for president and we are idiots to question Scientology.

For the record, I also have issues with Barak Obama's "AllaboutAfricaallthetime" Church. I would rather he was a moderate Muslim or an athiest like his Mother than a member of a separist church like Trinity. I have more of a problem with Huckabee "TheAmender" than any of the others...maybe he can pick up Fred Phelps as VP as soon as Phelps is through picketing Heath Ledger's funeral.

The fact is religion does matter. This new idea about how it's just wrong to question it is ridiculous. What is it going to take? A Scientologist running against a Hare Krishna for us to wake up?

AOL needs to find some grown up bloggers.

Now, David, you make at least one fair point, which is that nobody likes to be called an idiot. If you read my quote carefully, I'm not calling people who care about religion idiots. I'm calling the entire sample idiots, which is hyperbolic and slightly exaggerated for effect. Keep in mind, this is a liveblog and I'm a sh*tty typer. I can't hang a lantern on every statement I make, you gotta keep up a little, or at least give a guy the benefit of the doubt. What I was saying is that the vast majority of our country has contradictory views about religion and government, and that a huge percentage, something like 90%, say they would not elect an atheist, which only means that the atheists answered yes.

On the substance of that question, we kind of agree, and kind of disagree. I agree, Huckabee's statements about changing the Constitution for God are ridiculous, and much worse than the fact that Romney is a Mormon. The question isn't "What religion are you?", it's "Is God (or Vishnu, or Jeffrey the Giraffe, or whatever you believe in) in control of our government or are we?"

You want to question people because you question their "crazy doctrines", like the Mormons, or Scientologists, or Hare Krishnas, but unless you're an atheist, I guarantee you believe (e.g. your church subscribes to some doctrine) something that millions of people find ridiculous. Furthermore, you're pulling out bits of Mormon "doctrine" as an outsider, with no knowledge of the context or emphasis or literalness with which they believe it. Plus, what's your point about the angel? "Moroni" is a silly name for an angel, but "Gabriel" is right on? My son named his stuffed puppy "Mark." Now, that's funny.

If someone is truly an adherent of some wacky cult, that fact should cause him to act in ways that disqualify him independent of the religion question. For example, if I went around killing doctors, well, don't elect me president. If I go to church on Easter to make my mom happy, don't say, "Is Tommy under the sway of some cult?"

Then you get on Obama's church, ironically the subject of the same kind of misinformation that your candidate is a victim of. Here is the truth, go check it out and stop getting your news via emails.

As for your opening sentence, the blog couldn't be any more clearly labeled. It's not a Ron Paul blog, it is a blog about the debate. I subtitled it "The Ron Paul Show" to satirize the way he has been left out of this entire process. I'm not sure what else you expect from a liveblog other than some one-liners and a little bit of analysis. I'm a lousy typist, so I'm pretty impressed that I did it at all.

David, thanks for your comments. I hope you read some of my other stuff. You have every right not to like my writing, but it's not fair to judge me on the basis of a liveblog for a party that I do not support.

Bobby Conch, thanks for coming out of your shell. (ba-dum-bum) I'm watching that NH story, but there's not much there yet.

Something else that I find remarkable about Ron Paul is that he's not a very forceful or charismatic orator. He's just a guy talking. His appeal is almost 100% in his message, at least that's how I see it. I find that amazing. In that way, he reminds me of John Edwards a little, although Edwards is obviously shooting for a more polished persona than Paul is. Edwards also wins every debate, and the more people hear his message, the more they like it. This country questions candidates' religions, but it is the voter who worships in the Cult of Personality.

Hi, again. Here are links to my other Ron Paul stories.

Shh! Ron Paul Places 2nd in Nevada

Ron Paul Annihilates Fred Thompson

Don't Dismiss Ron Paul or John Edwards

Ron Paul For President...of What?

David, be nice to RomneyGirl, keep it on the substance. You attacked her religion, dude, so give her some latitude. Don't get personal.

Vet 85, I could not have said it better myself. Kudos to you.

Update: Check out Eric Schultzke's unbelievable story about media dishonesty and the debate.

Update:8:23pm 1/25/08 David G, no problem, man, I get that a lot. Ron Paul supporters are a touchy bunch, understandably. I think the distinction you are missing on religion is that, unless a candidate's actions make it obvious that he is guided against our constitution by some outside influence, be it religion, campaign cash, or Star Trek fandom, then his or her religion is his or her own business.

I don't think you've been taking the time to read the responses to you. There are crazy doctrines in every religion, but people believe them to different degrees. It's not fair to say "Romney/Mormons believe this" just because it's in the religious text. I don't think that most Catholics actually believe that the communion wafer becomes flesh on the way down, either, or that all Christians believe that the Earth is 6000 years old.

One more thing, Paul-ites. I've made inquiries to the Paul campaign about scoring an interview with Dr. Paul, I will keep you posted on that. If you want to email them and tell them to do it, be my guest.

David, dude, we get it. You think Mormons are stupid. Let me ask you this, though. And be honest. Would you rather have Mitt Romney, a guy who has never, as RG points out, given any indication that he is governing for Moroni or whatever, as your president, or the current, non-mormon occupant of the oval office?