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State of the Union Preview

By Mark Impomeni
Jan 28th 2008 8:00AM

Filed Under:ePresident Bush, Senate, House, State of the Union



The State of the Union is one of a political junkie's favorite nights of the year. This annual American political tradition has come to provide real theater. The speech is full of pageantry not seen at any other time: from the way the president is announced into the chamber to thunderous applause, and then re-introduced by the Speaker of the House with that peculiar formulation, "the high privilege and the distinct honor;" to the rise and fall of the legislators outdoing themselves to show their support for the favorite lines in the speech; the guests in the balcony; and the way in which campaign seasoned legislators morph into groupies, fighting and jockeying for a chance to shake the president's hand as he enters and leaves the chamber. There is very little in the world for which a true lover of American politics would miss a State of the Union Speech.

President Bush will deliver his seventh and final State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress tonight in the House chamber. The speech marks the official beginning of the final year of the Bush presidency, and its content is likely to reflect that fact.

The president's speech will hit on some broad themes, among them the economy, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and education. But unlike past Bush State of the Union speeches, this one will not propose any grand programs, choosing instead to ficus on unfinished business and achievable ends in this election year.

On Iraq, the president will have much to say and contrast with from last year at this time. His 2007 address came in the wake of the announcement of the troop surge into Iraq, a make or break strategic shift that was much derided at the time. One year on, Iraq has largely stabilized and the president's troop surge strategy is widely viewed as a success. The Pentagon is looking to duplicate the effort on a smaller scale in Afghanistan, and Gen. David Petraeus, the Army commander in charge of operations in Iraq, is being looked upon as one of America's greatest military minds of any generation. The president will likely heap praise on Petraeus and the troops for a job well done, though not completed, in Iraq. He will thank Congress for providing with no conditions the $189 billion that the Administration requested for Iraq and Afghanistan, and he will ask them to continue to support the mission through this year.

The economy will be a big topic in the speech, and the president will press Congress, and particularly the Senate, to quickly pass the recently agreed upon economic stimulus package. He will prevail upon the leadership in the Senate to resist the temptation to load up the stimulus deal with added items and increased spending. The White House touts the House stimulus deal, which it had a hand in formulating, as based entirely on tax cuts. The president will likely make one final appeal to Congress to make his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, they are set to expire in 2010, as a means of further stimulating the economy.

Unfinished agenda items will also get top billing in the speech. First among these is the Protect America Act, the law passed last summer by Congress that authorizes the Administration's terrorist surveillance program. The law will lapse on February 1, and the Senate is currently debating an extension. The president will push for immunity for telecommunications companies believed to have assisted the government in eavesdropping activities in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks. Another of the president's signature domestic achievements, the No Child Left Behind education reform will also merit a mention. The president wants Congress to expand the law, which requires grade school students to be tested and improvements made in schools that fail to meet state standards, to high schools. Unlike the tax cuts and the Protect America Act, No Child Left Behind is not set to expire, but The White House believes that an extension can be done in the president's final year.

Gone from this year's address will be ambitious talk of new programs or reforms of old ones. Social Security reform, a feature of past State of the Union speeches and a crashing failure on Capitol Hill, will not get a mention. Neither will other entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid. There just isn't the political will in Congress, or the political capital in the White House to tackle these thorny issues this year. The president may mention cut backs in Federal programs that are under performing or duplicative, as he does almost every State of the Union, but this will not be a year for budget cutting.

This speech, more than this president's others, may take a look back on his presidency. President Bush has always said that he is not concerned with a legacy, that he is content to leave that to the historians. But it is doubtful that he will be able to get through this State of the Union, his last, without at least referring to his time in office and steering the historians toward particular interpretations of the man and his Administration. The speech will be a final chance for the president to command the public stage. After tonight, barring any major international or domestic incidents, the public's focus will turn almost exclusively to the men and the woman running to replace him.

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