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Poll Shows Ray of Light for McCain
By Tommy ChristopherFeb 27th 2008 11:00AM
Filed Under:eRepublicans, John McCain, 2008 President, Polls
"leadership", handling Iraq, and the economy. Some choice cuts from the story: The findings underscore the difficulties ahead for Democrats as they hope to retake the White House during a time of war, with voters giving McCain far higher marks when it comes to experience, fighting terrorism and dealing with the situation in Iraq.
In head-to-head contests, the poll found, McCain leads Clinton by 6 percentage points (46% to 40%) and Obama by 2 points (44% to 42%). Neither lead is commanding given that the survey, conducted Feb. 21-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being best able to handle the economy. However, Clinton led McCain on that issue, 43% to 34%.
The story also has McCain winning the Fear vote. Literally. Bob Fear is going to vote for him:
"I just think he's older, he's more experienced, and he's got the betterment of the country in mind," said Robert Fear, 79, a registered Democrat from Newton, Ill., who said he planned to support McCain in November.How good is this news for McCain, and conversely, how bad for the Democrats? Brief analysis to follow.
There's a lot of cognitive dissonance in this poll, and McCain needs to figure out how to innoculate his advantages against that. On Iraq, for instance, he polls ahead of the Democrats, despite overwhelming public opposition to the war. Within the poll, he has a sizeable margin over the Dems on the "strongest leader" question, yet trails badly when it comes to having the ability to make changes in Washington. On the economy, as the story states, McCain will be campaigning against himself. His head-to-head margin against Obama is very slim, within the margin of error. With the Democrats still settling on a nominee, they haven't begun to campaign against McCain in earnest, so now is the time to address these issues.
The war in Iraq is a key vulnerability for McCain, but a shift to a more flexible outlook by McCain would help him a lot. He needs to figure out a way to step back from the "100 years" statement, while maintaining message integrity. He needs to show a light at the end of the tunnel.
On the economy, his best strategy is to surround himself with credible, preferably bipartisan, advisers. McCain will be battling for independent and conservative Democratic votes, and a lot of his appeal with them has to do with the perception, real or not, that he puts principles over party.
Maintaining his lead over Obama will be difficult, as negative campaigning hasn't seemed to work on him. His biggest advantage is in the "strongest leader" category, so he needs to buttress that, while avoiding the temptation to trash Obama on that count. The two are in a near-total deadlock in favorability, at 61% each, with bipartisan support about equal. The same is true of "honesty and integrity." With these two candidates going after the same voters, who like both of them, a negative campaign seems like a really bad idea.
A great way around this is the "apolattack", showcased in yesterday's denunciation by McCain of comments by a radio host at a McCain event. Whether deliberate or not, McCain gets a powerful double-dip here. In apologizing, he gets to repeat the charge, or get the media to, and he looks like a good guy for "taking responsibility", a phrase that used to mean you would accept some sort of consequence. Hillary Clinton has used this to lesser effect, but McCain is more believable. He can only go to this well a few times, though, so he should use this judiciously.
What he should not do is take Mark Halperin's advice: (sorry, analysis):
Things McCain can do when running against Obama that Clinton has been unable to do well or at all:
1. Play the national security card without hesitation.
2. Talk about the Iraq War without apologies or perceived contradiction.
3. Go at Obama unambiguously from the right.
4. Encourage interest groups, bloggers, and right-leaning media to explore Obama's past.
5. Make an issue of Obama's acknowledged drug use.
6. Allow some supporters to risk being accused of using the race card when criticizing Obama.
7. Exploit Michelle Obama's mistakes and address her controversial remarks with unrestricted censure.
8. Play dirty without alienating his party.
9. Dismiss Obama's brief national tenure from his own lofty platform of decades in the Senate – there will be no ambiguity about who has more experience as conventionally defined.
10. Use his sterling war record to reinforce his image of patriotism and valor – and contrast it with his opponent's.
11. Emphasize Barack Hussein Obama's unusual name and exotic background through a Manchurian Candidate prism.
12. Employ third party groups like the NRA to hit Obama on issues that might turn off general election voters. Perhaps an ad such as this will run in Ohio: "So, what do you really know about Barack Obama? Did you know he supports meeting with the head of terrorist states? Do you know he wants to get rid of your right to own a handgun? Do you know he is calling for the repeal of the law preventing gay marriage? Do you know he is for a trillion-dollar tax increase? What do you really know about Barack Obama?"
13. Face an electorate less consumed with "change change change" (the main priority for Democratic voters) and keenly interested in "ready from day one" as an equally important ideal.
14. Link biography (experience/courage) and leadership (straight talk) to a vision animated by detail – accentuating Obama's relative lack of specificity.
15. Give Obama his first real race against a credible Republican. (Clinton has always asserted that Obama would wilt before a fierce Republican assault.) 16. Confront Obama with a united, focused campaign absent of second-guessing, which hits the same themes and message every day.
Note: This is analysis, not advice.
One final thought: Obama needs to think seriously about choosing Hillary as his running mate. While gender has not proven to be a positive in making up voters' minds, a perception of "history denied", coupled with McCain's high approval with women, could be a strong negative for Obama. Anything less than the so-called "Dream Ticket" could end up being a nightmare for the Democrats.
Update: Response to comments- Steve S, I don't know if you read the piece correctly. The list above is from Time magazine's Mark Halperin, not me, and I introduced it as what not to do.
As for the "Apolattack", I personally find the tactic repugnant, but it is effective, although highlighting the tactic might diminish that.
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Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 3)tfitz101712:00PMFeb 27th 2008
Hillary comes with baggage, and I'm not just referring to Bill. Could you imagine Bill Clinton as the husband of the Vice President? Man, could he have some fun on those goodwill junkets!
pam040212:00PMFeb 27th 2008
John McCain is scary.
He's on the edge and I for one choose to NOT have a live-wire like him on the "Hot Button".
If he wants to play soldier, let him take his sneaky a$$ over to IRAQ.
He is totally out of his depth re: economy and frankly, I could give two sh*ts about Homeland Security.
The risks are quite low and we are being snowed by war profiteers.
My concerns are for my family, my dwindling finances, my growing living costs, my air, my water, MY COUNTRY.
That fear mongering they do is meant to rouse people's patriotism and keep them fired up for War.
Guess what people, there is no war. There was an Invasion, Murder and Occupation of an innocent country.
For what, you may ask?
For control of an Oil rich region.
The economy is good for the jackass in power.
His Exxon stocks have made him a vewwy, vewwy wich twit.
Go away you demented destroyers.
It's time, once again, for the Democrats to clean up your ghastly MESS!
tfitz101712:16PMFeb 27th 2008
This has begun already.
"When you examine that statement, it's pretty remarkable," McCain told a crowd in Tyler, Texas.
"I have some news. Al-Qaida is in Iraq. It's called `al-Qaida in Iraq,"' McCain said, drawing laughter at Obama's expense.
"And my friends, if we left, they (al-Qaida) wouldn't be establishing a base," McCain said Wednesday. "They'd be taking a country, and I'm not going to allow that to happen, my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to al-Qaida."
He said that withdrawing troops would be "waving the white flag."
This is the poison that McCain has drunk. It's tough to counter, but it is nonsense. The Iraqi factions want power desperately. The al qaida in Iraq thing was totally due to the US being there and when they tried their Islamist line on the rather secular Iragis, they chopped them into little pieces. It ain't about Jihad in Iraq; it is about power and money, in that order.
john12:30PMFeb 27th 2008
Democrates have or will blow this election. They have made the same mistake as in the past. On making a finale decision on who to vote for "EXPERIENCE COUNTS"
The facts are truly simple;
McCain has it, Hillary has it, Obama dosen't.
Without "GOD" Moses was nothing, he needed somene to show him the way.
Cecil Jones12:39PMFeb 27th 2008
Isn't it interesting that people are offering their "analysis" before the nominations are complete? McCain is old, angry, tortured, and eager to continue endless war. If Bob Dole and Dick Cheney had a baby, it would be Sen. McCain. My analysis is this race is for the Democrats to lose. Right now, Democrats are doing a great job of losing the momentum and the natural advantage giving birth to "Twins." Neither candidate has true experience, they won't build the damn fence, they are weak on the economy, they haven't run anything in their life, one inhaled, the other's husband dropped trow in the White House, and she sold her soul for power. Democrats are doing a great job "Blowing it" again. Time for Plan B? Al Gore and Obama would be a landslide. It's Gore's Turn. Heal the Party and that will Heal America. Hillary should be on the Supreme Court. That's my analysis and I'm the Democratic Karl Rove.
artmanjeff12:42PMFeb 27th 2008
If you elect Hillary, you get a Predident and a former President. Two for one, sounds good to me.
TJ12:45PMFeb 27th 2008
OBAMA HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO DAMAGE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOREVER-
a)HIS CHURCH
b)HIS MILLION-MAN MARCH AND SECRET ADORATION FOR FARAKHAN
c)THE IRAQI MILLIONAIRE WHO GAVE HIM A LOAN WHICH IS THE REAL REASON HE OPPOSED THE WAR-HE IS INTERNALLY PART MUSLIM. WATCH TIMESONLINE.COM FOR THat story-
d)OBAMA-REZKO CONNECTION -THE TRIAL WILL YIELD A LOT OF NEGATIVE PRESS FOR OBAMA.
e)most hillary supporters feel he denied them a moment in history and will vote mccain--
obama will defintely lead to a mccain win
With Hillary, we know all her faults and her history-hillary is vented.. nothing else to discover-
Obama is a big gamble for democrats at this moment in history.
Republicans would have been at the white house for 16 yrs if obama wins. McCain will surely beat OBAMA.
Pjayee12:47PMFeb 27th 2008
If Obama gets the nod their are thousands of Democrats voting McCain, We feel is he the lesser of two evils at least he is more to the liberal side and he has experience something that scares us about Obama is that he lacks this experience ,Obama has made some naive comments in the past and with the good ole boys handling him, well McCain it is.
TJ12:48PMFeb 27th 2008
OBAMA IRAQI MILLIONAIRE CONNECTION-
THE REAL REASOON HE OPPOSED THE WAR
http://www.propeller.com/viewstory/2008/02/26/mansion-mistake-piles-the-pressure-on-barack-obama/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesonline.co.uk%2Ftol%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fus_and_americas%2Fus_elections%2Farticle3433485.ece&frame=true
Seattle631:00PMFeb 27th 2008
I'm completely perplexed as to how anyone could vote for this man. Aside from having been one of the "Keating 5", and surrounding himself with a lobbiest laden campaign staff, the man is a complete racist. Not only does he refer to Asians as "gooks"(I'm sorry people, there's no defending him here), he's associated himself with people like Bill Cunningham, a well known racist talk show host, who recently spoke at his campaign rally. I'm sorry, there's absolutely no way his campaign advisors couln't have known that Mr. Cunningham was going to make a statement like he made. IT'S WHAT HE'S KNOWN FOR PEOPLE!!! And this is the best candidate that the Republicans could come up with??? They'd have been better off with Charleton Heston as their candidate!
beverly1:28PMFeb 27th 2008
say what you want no more clinton ,peoples they gave china all the jobs, cant you see that,
beverly1:29PMFeb 27th 2008
why ,vote another clinton,rememberpeople clinton is the reason we dont have no jobs now, the nafatchina
who want hillary her husband will be coaching her ,he almost sold the united states to china,that why we dont have any jobs now ,they went overseas,hello wake up peoples,i know this is his wife running but believe me he is coaching her.
Kitty1:35PMFeb 27th 2008
McCain has to stop using his favorite statements like "waving a white flag" and "surrender" if he is ever to win the broad support he needs to win.
Those hatemongering, warmongering and fearmongering statements drive Americans away from his campaign in droves after the Bush-Cheney disaster.
Barbara2:38PMFeb 27th 2008
Sorry no war monger for me. McCain is likeable but old - too old. Obama is really our only hope to restore this country. He has the right vision, the organizational skills to lead, and yes he does have experience. Check out his record, he is being modest by not pusing it more. He has a better passing bill rate than either Hillary or McCain - do yourself justice and check it out. Futhermore, for this so called inexperienced man to run the successful campaign he has run, and mobolize millions, he has something and we need it- VOTE OBAMA 08.
Barbara2:40PMFeb 27th 2008
Sorry no war monger for me. McCain is likeable but old - too old. Obama is really our only hope to restore this country. He has the right vision, the organizational skills to lead, and yes he does have experience. Check out his record, he is being modest by not pusing it more. He has a better passing bill rate than either Hillary or McCain - do yourself justice and check it out. Futhermore, for this so called inexperienced man to run the successful campaign he has run, and mobolize millions, he has something and we need it- VOTE OBAMA 08.
Lori2:49PMFeb 27th 2008
Uh, Charlotte - "marriage is a basic civil right to all Americans..." you can't be serious!! Marriage is an institution created to exist between a MAN and a WOMAN - marriage was intended for procreation; that, my dear, could never be attainable through same-gender marriage - it goes against all nature, not to mention morality.. you liberals make me laugh -- but that's okay, The dems, especially the ones in this particular race -- have no chance agains the good ole GOP -- Go McCain!!!! (45 yr. old Republican from PA)
Hako3:15PMFeb 27th 2008
Hillary has baggage? That's a laugh, when you consider what has been coming out about Obama just in the last month or so. At least everyone knows about her baggage, it's nothing new. The same cannot be said for Obama.....we're hearing more all the time, and it's a long way to November. Hillary will beat McCain if she is the nominee, regardless of any poll, and Obama will lose to him.
holtdavidr3:15PMFeb 27th 2008
OF COURSE HILLIARY DIDN'T SERVE IN THE MILITARY. THINK ABOUT THIS. NEITHER DID HER HUSBAND ! THEY ARE SO QUICK TO CRITICIZE BUSH FOR SERVING IN THE HONORABLE NATIONAL GUARD WHEN BILL CLINTON SPENT THE ENTIRE VIETNAM ERA HIDING OUT IN ENGLAND. HE DIDN'T SERVE AT ALL IN ANY BRANCH. HE WAS A DRAFT DODGER PLAIN AND SIMPLE AND IMPEACHED AS PRESIDENT. SO WHEN THAT LYING HILLIARY GOES IN DON'T THINK THAT HE WON'T BE A DUAL PRESIDENT. HERE WE GO AGAIN! DESPITE WHAT SHE KEEPS SHOVELING OVER TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, SHE HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERINCE IN ANYTHING EXCEPT BEING A HICK ARKANSAS LAWYER WHO ALMOST WENT TO PRISON ONCE FOR A MAJOR REAL ESTATE SCAM. YOU WANT THIS COUPLE BACK IN OFFICE? HE IS A WOMANIZING COWARD AND SHE IS A RUTHLESS LIAR. GREAT TEAM!
holtdavidr3:17PMFeb 27th 2008
OF COURSE HILLIARY DIDN'T SERVE IN THE MILITARY. THINK ABOUT THIS. NEITHER DID HER HUSBAND ! THEY ARE SO QUICK TO CRITICIZE BUSH FOR SERVING IN THE HONORABLE NATIONAL GUARD WHEN BILL CLINTON SPENT THE ENTIRE VIETNAM ERA HIDING OUT IN ENGLAND. HE DIDN'T SERVE AT ALL IN ANY BRANCH. HE WAS A DRAFT DODGER PLAIN AND SIMPLE AND IMPEACHED AS PRESIDENT. SO WHEN THAT LYING HILLIARY GOES IN DON'T THINK THAT HE WON'T BE A DUAL PRESIDENT. HERE WE GO AGAIN! DESPITE WHAT SHE KEEPS SHOVELING OVER TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, SHE HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERINCE IN ANYTHING EXCEPT BEING A HICK ARKANSAS LAWYER WHO ALMOST WENT TO PRISON ONCE FOR A MAJOR REAL ESTATE SCAM. YOU WANT THIS COUPLE BACK IN OFFICE? HE IS A WOMANIZING COWARD AND SHE IS A RUTHLESS LIAR. GREAT TEAM!
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Vera11:22AMFeb 27th 2008
John McCain is a wonderful person – a great American Hero – and a honorable Senator.
When why is this Republican not supporting him?
Because in the past eight years he has changed to a clone of George Bush.
I would never vote for a Clinton because of their eight years of shaming the American Nation with scandal upon scandal.
So that leaves Senator Barack Obama – unproven yes, but I would rather take a chance on a NATIONAL CHEER LEADER then any of the above.
After all it is the senate and congress that makes the laws, what this nation needs is a president that will uplift the nation after 16 years of pessimism!