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Is Obama Crashing?
Victor Davis Hanson thinks so. But that opinion is so at odds with my own, that I had to take a closer look. And while I have the greatest respect for professor Hanson, I think his political analysis is wrong here. Here is what Hanson wanted from the Obama speech.
There is nothing to be offered for Rev. Wright except my deepest apologies for not speaking out against his venom far earlier. We in the African-American community know better than anyone the deleterious effects of racist speech, and so it is time for Rev. Wright and myself to part company, since we have profoundly different views of both present- and future-day America.
So Hanson wanted Obama to throw Wright under the bus? That may have been the right thing to do (no pun intended, ha!) but in the context of the Democratic primary it would have been disastrous. The very next move from the Clinton campaign would have been to chide the Obama camp as not sensitive to race relations and those working hardest in the Black community. And Obama would have found himself on the other side of that fight. Great fun, but not a winning move for the primary.
Instead Obama moved to say a lot of pretty things that meant everything to everyone and all were happy because they heard what they wanted to hear. He will have Wright problems in the general, but first you have to win to even be in the general.
Another point:
Even elites will wake up to the fact that they've been had, in a sense, once they deconstruct the speech carefully and fathom that their utopian candidate just may have managed to destroy what was once a near-certain Democratic sweep in the fall. And a number of African-Americans will come to resent that they are being lumped into a majority akin to the Rev. Wright, millions of whom the majestic Sen. Obama has nobly chosen not to "disown," despite their apparently similar embarrassing racialism.
They won't wake up, and since when liberal elites carefully deconstructed anything logically, much less one of their own saviors of the Democratic party? And I have doubts about the prospect of minorities to suddenly become outraged at the usual business of civil rights leaders like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.
But here is the biggest problem:
No, actually he's not. In fact he's plateaued after a long rise, but a plateau is not a crash, and his poll numbers are still above or even with Hillary. Good enough, and it's most likely this speech that stopped the bleeding. Obama did exactly what he needed to from a "win the Democratic primary" perspective. He'll worry about the general election later.(1) Obama is crashing in all the polls, especially against McCain, against whom he doesn't stack up well, given McCain's heroic narrative, the upswing in Iraq, and the past distance between McCain and the Bush administration;
Recent Comments
(Page 2 of 7)mrbline10:17AMMar 24th 2008
Patti. You proved my point quite nicely. Thank you.
keene wendall10:23AMMar 24th 2008
In the small corner of the world you all appear to live in it appears you know very little and do not understand politics or the election process in general. If you can at the very least count, you would know who is favored over who. Does not matter one iota what is fabricated by the disgruntled minority, it does not and will not change the fabric of the majority. Like it or not Obama is the favored and the more digs he gets the more the majority go to his side. Guess you do not understand the underdog syndrome either or you would not be playing into it. Underdog always comes out the winner when the heat is turned up by the real underdogs. I LOVE IT! SIGNED, SEALED & DELIVERED.
Jebinb10:29AMMar 24th 2008
IF YOU TAKE THE BEARD AND MUSTACHE OFF
OSAMA BIN
WHAT DO YOU GET
OBAMA HUSSIEN
Jebinb10:29AMMar 24th 2008
OBAMA SAID TONY REZKO GAVE HIM $150.000.00
OBAMA SAID HE GAVE IT TO CHARITY
WHAT CHARITY ?
REV. GOD DAMN AMERICA
WRIGHTS CHURCH ?
WE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW
WHAT CHARITY ?
gordon walker jr.10:31AMMar 24th 2008
Maybe you handfull should run for president being you got everything figured out in advance of it happening. But then again, bottom feeders are not the top of the food chain cause they are scavengers of shit and crap.
Jebinb10:31AMMar 24th 2008
OBAMA CONVIENTLY FORGOT
THAT TONY REZKO
ACTUALLY GAVE OBAMA $ 250,000.00
WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT OTHER $ 100,000.00
OBAMA HASN’T SAID
WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT MONEY ?
Kate10:36AMMar 24th 2008
If there are exceptions to Obama's candidacy, they should be based on his social, economic, or political platforms...not on this ridiculous "Wright issue." The media and commentary fervor over this issue smacks of opportunism and disingenuousness.
Obama HAS been setting up meetings and giving speeches addressing corrective economic measures and approaches to the Iraq War...these were given after his speech on race. WHY are we still talking about Wright and race?
If he is elected, it will be a result of his political platforms, not his race. So if you want to debate, pick the right topic.
JanetP10:39AMMar 24th 2008
Folks, we are on some dangerous turf here. There is really no way to unzip Obama's brain and determine where his true loyalty lies. We, therefore, must rely on traditional measures, and there is enough to plant a healthy seed of doubt about where an Obama presidency would take this nation.
It certainly appears that he has some leanings that are not consistent with American patriotism. When coupled with the provocative comments made by his wife and his pastor, it is just too risky to support him for president.
My sainted mother had a saying that 'love lingers.' Obama is a young man. If he is the real deal he will be around for the next election. The time is not right to elect him.
Katherine10:39AMMar 24th 2008
Also, contribute money to HillaryClinton.com. Volunteer for Hillary, make phone calls, and volunteer on foot if you are close to or within the upcoming voting states. Hillary needs to win.
Also, pay attention to and enjoy these sites:
****Rezko Watch (daily update, plus nobama/ pro-Hillary blogs on left, and so much more--my fellow googlers will love this website)
http://rezkowatch.blogspot.com/
HillaryClinton.com (make contribution--even $5.00), check out fact hub, and always see daily press releases)
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/
Hillary Speaks For Me
http://www.hillaryspeaksforme.com/
Rene Gatson10:43AMMar 24th 2008
One has yet to prove that Obama has done or said anything that proves him to be other than what he has professed to be, a person with good morals, and good intentions.
Wright on the other hand should be consentrating on the words of the very person he is suppose to be representing, Jesus.
Having said that,let's assume Obama actually heard this kind of racially inflamed message for 20 years as the media proclaims. What a testimony to have emerged from this kind of influence, still focused on bringing all of us together as one nation under GOD. He has proven once again that he can rise above the prejudice of our great country. Yes our country is prejudice which is why people see him as black even though he is both black and white. America considers a person black if he has 1% of black blood and 99% "other". What kind of math is this? I rest my case for now.
I am multicultured and claim all of them.
Pete Caldwell.10:44AMMar 24th 2008
Gordon....right on man. Talk about being duped, these dudes and dudesess havn't a clue about the real picture or the real world outside the box they live ing. They think all the voters are wrong, all the poltical pundits are wrong, all the polls are wrong and the media is wrong too. BUT, they are right on all acounts. Those silly narrow-minded types are called know-it-alls. Too bad they can not see how ridiculous that kind of thinking is but who ever said they were smart...except them who live in the same bubble. Like begets like but they are not bamboozling educated thinkers who know better. Like, talk to the hand!!!! The winner of this election is ------------.
Ann10:48AMMar 24th 2008
Obama is still bragging that he was against invading Iraq. Don't people realize that he was not a U.S. senator at the time the vote was taken?!
mrbline10:48AMMar 24th 2008
Katherine did as well. Let me guess kathy, you support Hillary Clinton. Or is your's the first reason?
Come on people, let's get real. We are not ignorant masses, despite what many posters here suggest.
Obama is green but is fairly clean where it really counts. Anyone who thinks the media has not scrutinized this guy is seriously delusional. The Wright stuff has been there for years, but any journalist would tell you it has "National Enquirer" written all over it. It was held out in the event something more substantive would emerge, and Fox had to be the one to break it, which says volumes. He is a gamble, and we as a nation may be desperate enough to take the risk. More of the same doesn't sound all that good, when "same" means people lose everything they worked hard to build.
Clinton mismanaged her campaign from the git go and fell behind. At any point she could have pulled it out by simply playing her game. No matter how hard she may come on in the end, if it is not enough to overtake Obama, she loses, and that is a big "if" right now. Any move to change the rules now would be the smoking gun the GOP needs to seat McCain in the general election. The party will not come together, if rules are compromised.
Either one could have gotten a lions share of the general population.
McCain is old, out of touch, and really not strong enough to lead through the next four years, but he stands the best chance to get the nod, because supporters of the other two will cancel each other out.
How about this scenerio: Nader wins because the "typical white guy" (the sleeper in this race) protests what both parties are showing us?
And a once great nation falls.
Let's be a great nation, stop the sillyness, show the world a "by the book election", and rise as one to take care of our own. Let's all say "good game" to the winner of the primary (good game to the loser as well), make our vote be for someone, not against someone else, and stand by our new leader has his/her closest and most critical advisor . . . one nation of the people, by the people, and for the people.
Not a good reason to elect a leader, don't you think?
Peggy Olsen10:52AMMar 24th 2008
JanetP, you do not decide if the time is right to elect someone. The voters have spoken and the leader of state wins and delegates exist in spite of your prophetic stupid assumption. If you knew how the wind blows down the line, you would know where this election was going and that Hillary is going down. She is not the favored fair-haired gal with the group that will decide this election; those will not throw a hat in the ring for any Clinton, they know them well..all tooooo well. Trust that much. You talk like your head is full of straw. This election will bbe decided very quickly, the Demos DO NOT want it decided in the convention. Keep abreast of what is REALLY going on outside this blog. HELLO---EARTH CALLING JANETP.
neil benson10:55AMMar 24th 2008
KATHERINE:
GET OUT THE GUTTER! STALE, STALE & MORE STALE.
neil benson11:03AMMar 24th 2008
MRBLINE.....................FINALLY AN INTELLIGENT POSTER. THE MASS AMOUNT OF DIRTY ROTTEN IGNORANT REDUNDANT GARBAGE AND STATEMENTS SHOWN HERE SHOWS ME IGNORANCE IS MORE THAN A LACK OF INTELLIGENCE, IT IS ALSO A LACK OF BEING TAUGHT RESPECT. PATHETIC AT BEST.
Marty Adams11:06AMMar 24th 2008
The distortions and outright lies in response to this blog continue. One poster claimed that Hillary won Florida and Michigan. NO SHE DID NOT BECAUSE IN BOTH STATES, SHE RAN ESSENTIALLY UNOPPOSED AFTER ALL CANDIDATES PLEDGED NOT TO CAMPAIN THERE.
There's also alot of "assuming" going on. For example, it is assumed that for the past 20 years, Rev. Wright has been giving his "hate the US" sermons. Does anyone out there have direct evidence of this or are we to believe that his RECENT dvd's are a reflection of 20 years' of his history?
Next, a number of people had, before Obama's speech, made up their minds as to what they thought he ABSOLUTELY had to say. What arrogance!!! Only Obama knew best what he had to say and that did not include throwing his spiritual mentor under the bus. And, it is worth keeping in mind that a spiritual mentor is very different from a political one.
Finally, Obama's comment about his grandmother being a "typical White" has been widely misinterpreted. What Obama was referring to was a generational matter; i.e. members of his grandmother's generation do INDEED harbor racial discomfort if not an outright bias. I saw it in my parents, see it now in my in-laws. The generation(s) that followed Obama's grandmother are burdened by far less of this. Indeed, the current young adult generation is the freest of all, feeling quite comfortable with such things as inter-racial dating and marriage; certainly taboos as recently as two generations ago.
I haven't the slightest objection to people criticizing Obama on matters of policy. But there are too many posters whose distortions and lies put them in the company of Fox News and the most virulent members of the right-wing "smear machine".
FW11:18AMMar 24th 2008
Let's see what happens.
If the momentum shifts to Senator Clinton, then, it's for the superdelegates to reassess their decision.
JOSEPH BURTON11:34AMMar 24th 2008
Marty Adams, now there is some common sense wrapped up well and backed by TRUTH. It is high time that people who call themselves Americans start acting like Americans instead of critizing Obama for not being an American and or acting like an American. Bill Clinton DID attempt to make OBAMA look UNPATRIOTIC, Hillary and Bill weasel out of their failed dirty attemps by lying, useing the old misunderstood. I call the CLINTON'S BULLSHIT what it is, MORE BULLSHIT. Those who have an ounce of common sense they should realize CLINTONS and CLINTON BLOGGERS are the ones acting UNAMERICAN. But no, they are swept up in ATTACK OBAMA for no other reason than because he is WINNING. Must be nice to have nothing else to do but dig up dirt and feel PROUD of doing so. Never ceases to amaze me how far people will go to do damage control when their favored candidate is losing and can in no way make up the math needed. Hillary AGREED to go by the DEMOCARTIC COMMITTEE'S RULES. SHE LIED. NOW when she NEEDS the makeup VOTES wants to overturn the RULES. That is UNFAIR PRACTICE & HER LIE is worse. WE DO NOT NEED A LIAR OR UNFAIR PERSON NOT THE PERSON RUNNING OUR COUNTRY OR BEING IN THE WHITEHOUSE. BILL IS NO BETTER AS HER BEDSIDE ADVISOR, BILL LIED, NEARLY IMPEACHED. WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF LIES AND UNFAIR PRACTICES DURING THE LAST TWO TENURES. NOT LOOKING TO REPEAT HISTORY. NEW BLOOD IS WHAT THIS COUNTRY NEEDS AND NOT MORE OF CLINTON'S LIES AND UNFAIR PRACTICES. WOULD THE CLINTONS RUN A DIRTY UNDERHANDED CAMPAIGN? READ MY LIPS! OR DO YOUR HOMEWORK.
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mrbline10:17AMMar 24th 2008
A lot of people have a lot of "things" against Obama, yet the only thing that has come close to sticking to him is his "typical white person." People think he has lulled the media; he has not, and the fact that the closest scandal that can be attached to him is straw man at best. This says much. Other reasons we don't want to face, and we all know makes us look bad, is behind it.
1) The country sum totum is not ready for a black president. In truth it will never be ready, just like in every other part of our existence blacks joining the mainstream has encountered resistence.
2) Two messiahs exist on the democratic side. Picking one messiah means the other one's followers have to wait.
Maybe if the nation sum totum fesses up and faces the real reason, this would get a whole lot cleaner in the long run, and after the dust settles we can work to solve both problems.