Is Obama Crashing?

By Dave
Mar 24th 2008 11:06AM

Filed Under:eBarack Obama, 2008 President, Race

Victor Davis Hanson thinks so. But that opinion is so at odds with my own, that I had to take a closer look. And while I have the greatest respect for professor Hanson, I think his political analysis is wrong here. Here is what Hanson wanted from the Obama speech.

There is nothing to be offered for Rev. Wright except my deepest apologies for not speaking out against his venom far earlier. We in the African-American community know better than anyone the deleterious effects of racist speech, and so it is time for Rev. Wright and myself to part company, since we have profoundly different views of both present- and future-day America.

So Hanson wanted Obama to throw Wright under the bus? That may have been the right thing to do (no pun intended, ha!) but in the context of the Democratic primary it would have been disastrous. The very next move from the Clinton campaign would have been to chide the Obama camp as not sensitive to race relations and those working hardest in the Black community. And Obama would have found himself on the other side of that fight. Great fun, but not a winning move for the primary.

Instead Obama moved to say a lot of pretty things that meant everything to everyone and all were happy because they heard what they wanted to hear. He will have Wright problems in the general, but first you have to win to even be in the general.

Another point:

Even elites will wake up to the fact that they've been had, in a sense, once they deconstruct the speech carefully and fathom that their utopian candidate just may have managed to destroy what was once a near-certain Democratic sweep in the fall. And a number of African-Americans will come to resent that they are being lumped into a majority akin to the Rev. Wright, millions of whom the majestic Sen. Obama has nobly chosen not to "disown," despite their apparently similar embarrassing racialism.

They won't wake up, and since when liberal elites carefully deconstructed anything logically, much less one of their own saviors of the Democratic party? And I have doubts about the prospect of minorities to suddenly become outraged at the usual business of civil rights leaders like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.

But here is the biggest problem:

(1) Obama is crashing in all the polls, especially against McCain, against whom he doesn't stack up well, given McCain's heroic narrative, the upswing in Iraq, and the past distance between McCain and the Bush administration;

No, actually he's not. In fact he's plateaued after a long rise, but a plateau is not a crash, and his poll numbers are still above or even with Hillary. Good enough, and it's most likely this speech that stopped the bleeding. Obama did exactly what he needed to from a "win the Democratic primary" perspective. He'll worry about the general election later.

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