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Is Obama Crashing?
Victor Davis Hanson thinks so. But that opinion is so at odds with my own, that I had to take a closer look. And while I have the greatest respect for professor Hanson, I think his political analysis is wrong here. Here is what Hanson wanted from the Obama speech.
There is nothing to be offered for Rev. Wright except my deepest apologies for not speaking out against his venom far earlier. We in the African-American community know better than anyone the deleterious effects of racist speech, and so it is time for Rev. Wright and myself to part company, since we have profoundly different views of both present- and future-day America.
So Hanson wanted Obama to throw Wright under the bus? That may have been the right thing to do (no pun intended, ha!) but in the context of the Democratic primary it would have been disastrous. The very next move from the Clinton campaign would have been to chide the Obama camp as not sensitive to race relations and those working hardest in the Black community. And Obama would have found himself on the other side of that fight. Great fun, but not a winning move for the primary.
Instead Obama moved to say a lot of pretty things that meant everything to everyone and all were happy because they heard what they wanted to hear. He will have Wright problems in the general, but first you have to win to even be in the general.
Another point:
Even elites will wake up to the fact that they've been had, in a sense, once they deconstruct the speech carefully and fathom that their utopian candidate just may have managed to destroy what was once a near-certain Democratic sweep in the fall. And a number of African-Americans will come to resent that they are being lumped into a majority akin to the Rev. Wright, millions of whom the majestic Sen. Obama has nobly chosen not to "disown," despite their apparently similar embarrassing racialism.
They won't wake up, and since when liberal elites carefully deconstructed anything logically, much less one of their own saviors of the Democratic party? And I have doubts about the prospect of minorities to suddenly become outraged at the usual business of civil rights leaders like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.
But here is the biggest problem:
No, actually he's not. In fact he's plateaued after a long rise, but a plateau is not a crash, and his poll numbers are still above or even with Hillary. Good enough, and it's most likely this speech that stopped the bleeding. Obama did exactly what he needed to from a "win the Democratic primary" perspective. He'll worry about the general election later.(1) Obama is crashing in all the polls, especially against McCain, against whom he doesn't stack up well, given McCain's heroic narrative, the upswing in Iraq, and the past distance between McCain and the Bush administration;
Recent Comments
(Page 4 of 7)Pjayee1:36PMMar 24th 2008
Jeannette
I tried along time ago to get someone to look into Robert Malley, adviser to Obama and ties to Hamas, Seems now all the links have been changed to indicate otherwise
David Garrett1:38PMMar 24th 2008
You obama haters are a brick short of an out-house, a tree short of a forest, not the brightest bulbs on the string and so caught up in your shit-eaten rants and raves that your eyeballs are brown from all the shit you have in you. All the info. you put out is so old and have been disputed by experts long ago. It that is all you have to shit out, you have nothing but shit for brains. You all need to go to church and repent rather than worry about someone else's ministry. Mind your own. Obviously, you have no spirtuality whatsoever or you would not be so utterly and uselessly hypocritical and high and mighty. Check your own linen and then those without sin cast the first stone. How dumb can you be not to see how ugly you appear to others. Ugly is as ugly does.
mk1:42PMMar 24th 2008
If Obama truly represented all Americans equally he would have left his church when he found out their black supremecist agendas! I am shocked that he did not denounce his church when this came out!
TJ1:48PMMar 24th 2008
Denver Camdon1:03PMMar 24th 2008
SUSAN NATION....OBAMA IS NOT SINKING. ALL LATEST MEDIA SPOKESPERSONS AND ALL OTHER POLITICAL DATA ASCPECTS USED AS INDICATORS INDICATE OTHERWISE. THEY ALL AGREE. OBAMA IS UP IN THE POLLS AND IN THE LEAD STILL. I WATCH VERY CAREFULLY, DAILY AND HOURLY, AND KNOW THIS TO BE TRUE. OBAMA IS NOT SINKING. WHAT YOU REFER TO IS A SHORT INTERVAL OF PAST TENSE.
____________________________________
THOSE POLLS WERE BASED ON MARCH 20TH. ALSO CNN/ZOGBY WORK FOR THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN.
THEY HAD OBAMA AND CLINTON TIED 44% EACH A DAY BEFORE OHIO. CLINTON WON BY 56%. THE CNN/ZOGBY POLLS ARE RIGGED. THE SAME THING HAPPENED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE-THEY HAD OBAMA UP BY 20%, CLINTON WON.
THEY ARE SHAMELESS!!!!
THEY MANIPULATE US WITH THEIR GARBAGE POLLS-
OBAMA IS SINKING FAST!!!
peggy kruse1:48PMMar 24th 2008
An old Indian grandfather told his grandson that there was two wolves fighting in his heart, one was cruel, mean, angery and vivious, the other was kind, compassionate, not quick to anger and tender. The grandson asked,"which one will win the fight in your heart grandfather?" And the grandfather replied, "the one I feed."
"WE ARE THE ONES WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR"
Recently, the Hopi elder appeared before his tribe and spoke:
"You have been telling the people that this is
the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this
IS the Hour.
And there are things to be considered:
Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?
Know your garden. It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who
will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel they are being torn apart and will
suffer greatly.
Know the river has its destination. The elders
say we must let go of the
shore, push off into the middle
of the river, keep our eyes open and our heads
above the water.
And I say, see who is in there with you and
celebrate. At this time in
history we are to take nothing personally,
least of all, ourselves.
For the moment we do,
our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.
The time of the lone
wolf is over.
Gather yourselves!!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude
and your vocabulary.
All that we do now must be
done in a sacred manner
and in celebration.
We are the ones we have been
waiting for."
Then he clasped his
hands together, smiled, and said,
"This could be a good time!"
Hopi elder
Hopi Nation
Oraibi, Arizona
a voter1:49PMMar 24th 2008
I am an Obama supporter, but since he took so long to speak out against Rev. Wright and the hate that he was spewing, I have to question myself. I know that I do not want Clinton in the White House. She is a double-talker---she says one thing and then does the exact opposite of what she said she was going to do (hello, Joe Lieberman?). I wouldn't trust her to take out my garbage, let alone be the "leader" of this country. However, too many women have made this campaign about the sex of the person rather than the character and qualifications of the candidates. So, I am staying away from Clinton (besides, if she can't even keep her husband from cheating on her, then what can she do for us?). Obama was set to stand behind Wright, I think, until his campaign managers pointed out how people felt about him. It still took him almost 10 days to come out and say that he wouldn't support Wright anymore. The only one of the three major candidates who hasn't had any "mud" wiped off of him is McCain. I didn't want to vote for a republican this time, but I might have to because the democratic party is so divided along the lines of race and sex. I just hope that nothing comes out over the next few months to make me not want to vote for any of the candidates.
karl1:53PMMar 24th 2008
according to you MR T......the whole world is rigged except you. You are dead wrong. Obama is high on all the charts. Take a lesson in reading. You can spoof all you want, thinkers research and read. You're rigged for bear and have nothing worthwhile or truthfull on your platter.
derek gatlin2:07PMMar 24th 2008
All ye perfect A-holes are Full of condemnation and judgementalism. Pick Pick Pick. What a bunch of rightous A-holes. Scratching in the dirt pile looking for any little scratch, mar or flaw in Obama while praising Hillary to high heaven as if she is another perfect A-hole. You got stupid written all over your foreheads if you think that is cool. Stick with REAL ISSUES that matter to our failing economy and help us get out of the Bushy War so as not to lose any more mothers and father's son's and daughter's lives. The list of young twenty year olds, the Iraq war dead, are staggering and all you care about here is to trash Obama and by doing so you are not part of the solution but part of the problem. There are bigger fish to fry than Obama. Concentrate the energy your are wasting on higher-minded goals for America. Or better yet some much needed therapy and attend a few anger management classes while your at it too.
tzada2:07PMMar 24th 2008
To:tfitz101712:40PMMar 24th 2008
Can't get past the first page of these comments.
Sure is nice though that the klan folk and the From me:
hil-bots are on the same page. Seems like obama is a unifier there.
_______________________________________________________
Hey you....T. F. I like you as a person. I admire you as a writer. Again I know nothing about you.
What I do know is this, there is racial “tension” or hatred on both sides. While it is considered “ok” by blacks to call other races names, designed to low rate us, we are not allowed to do the same. T. where was your outrage when David Knowles called white men “honky dudes”?
How can you, someone with such heart for Tibet, be so disregardful of, the racial hatred from Barack Obama. How is this different from what the Chinese do to Tibet?
Do you not suspect what leadership under Obama would be for the USA?
Will his Secret Service consist of The New Black Panthers? They promise to change America. In their own words, it will become a "Molten America"
Will he have Rev Wright as his "spiritual adviser" ?
Will Bill Ayers and Louis Farrakhan be regular guests or be National Security Advisers, or Ambassadors?
After he is settled in, will Barack then run for President of Kenya? With dual citizenship he may well do so. Some of them chant his name, calling him their "messiah"
Will he advocate for Bill Richardson for head of the United Nations or perhaps Raila Odinga, his cousin the new prime minister of Kenya?
Will he make Tony Rezko Secretary of the Treasury? No…. Silly me, that would be a boneheaded decision.
I would think that a man of your intelligence would at least be asking some questions. I hope a “seat” at Obama’s “table” does not have your name on it.
mrbline2:12PMMar 24th 2008
Susan,
Since we are going to the next level, let's suspend our belief and look at your idea . . .
Three superdelegates who could easily end this are strangely silent: Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, and Howard Dean. Any one of them could end this today for the good of the Democratic Party by making a choice. Here we have nine possibilities for a replacement ticket.
Do you really think that will sit well with all the voters who suffered through watching Clinton and Obama shoot each other in the foot?
This needs to be settled with the choices we have, if we hope to stand a chance at electing either. The candidates need to call a truce, make their apologies to each other, share any remaining "dirt" to help avoid a GOP onslaught, and both need to shut down the their zealots in the media and on the internet. Let the voters decide . . . sure . . . but keep the sense of fair play above all else in this. Save the hardball for McCain.
This is the only way the Dems can salvage what should have been a slam dunk.
margaret miller2:22PMMar 24th 2008
YOU ARE LIVING ON ANOTHER PLANET IF YOU THINK HILLARY CAN WIN THE NOMINEE.
DEAL WITH THE STARK REALITY IN PRESENT TENSE AND GET THE FACTS STRAIGHT.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html
mrbline2:39PMMar 24th 2008
Acer,
Are you a fan of football?
There is a rule violation called "False Start". If an offensive team's player moves before the ball is snapped, the team is penalized 5 yards and the play does not count. Nobody gripes, even if the play results in a touchdown. The guys who did it gets a dirty look.
This is what happened to Michigan and Florida.
The DNC had a schedule of every Primary. The DNC informed each state of the punishment, if it did not adhere to the schedule. All the candidates knew this and signed off on it before any contests began.
Florida and Michigan's legislators decided to change the dates, knowing full well what would happen, hoping they could get away with it. They did not.
False Start. Vote doesn't count. Penalty is no delegates at the convention.
If you want to be mad at someone, go after the ones who changed the dates. Vote them out of office. They are the ones that took your vote away. Tell all your GOP friends to do the same. They had 1/2 their delegates stripped.
sarah munson2:53PMMar 24th 2008
WHO IS HILLARY CLINTON? A Wellesley College Alumna knows the real Hillary Clinton.
http://www.celsias.com/2008/02/19/an-open-letter-to-hillary-clinton-from-a-wellesley-college-alumna/
I am for Hillary2:55PMMar 24th 2008
Obama says he prays to Jesus everynight, this sounds like what a child might say, why won't he go in more detail about what his Bible says.
terry kaiser3:00PMMar 24th 2008
tzada, I would rather sit at a table with Barack Obama and break bread with him any day rather than sit with a batch of racist and hatefull Mother Smucker Jelly Heads.
I am for Hillary3:13PMMar 24th 2008
The Obama campaign has been topsy-turvied by revelations about the eccentric views of his pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Mr Wright has been shown on video urging his congregation to sing “God damn America” rather than the usual version, and referring to America as “the US of KKKA”. This was not a momentary aberration but part of a pattern of incendiary rhetoric.
Mr Wright believes that September 11th 2001 was “chickens coming home to roost”. He accuses the American government of manifold evils, from manufacturing the AIDS virus in order to kill blacks and grinding the faces of the world's poor (“America is still the number-one killer in the world”). Mr Wright is an admirer of both Louis Farrakhan, the leader of the Nation of Islam, and Muammar Qaddafi, the president of Libya.
Mr Obama has spent the past few days on the television responding to endless replays of his pastor's greatest hits. He likened Mr Wright (who has recently retired) to “an old uncle who says things I don't always agree with,” and claimed that he had not been present when any of the incendiary sermons were delivered.
Mr Obama also used the opportunity to dump some more bad news. He told reporters that his relationship with Tony Rezko, a Chicago property developer and former Obama fund-raiser who is on trial in federal court, was closer than he has said, and that his campaign has received more money from him than it had admitted ($250,000 rather than $150,000).
None of this is very convincing. Mr Wright was not an uncle but the man who brought Mr Obama to God. Mr Obama has been a member of his Trinity United Church of Christ for 20 years. Mr Wright presided at his wedding and baptised his children. Mr Obama even borrowed the title of his bestselling autobiography, “The Audacity of Hope”, from one of Mr Wright's sermons.
Mr Obama addressed his “Wright problem” at greater length in a speech in Philadelphia on March 18th. He made no attempt to distance himself from Mr Wright (“I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community”). But he argued that there is more to the reverend than a handful of noxious remarks: his church has been doing good works in Chicago for 30 years. Then he turned his speech into a broad discussion of race—a subject that he has hitherto touched on only lightly in his campaign.
He argued that the original sin of slavery and segregation has left deep scars on black America. Mr Wright's anger is shared by many black Americans who were born in a country that denied them basic rights. But he softened this with a more ecumenical message. He argued that blacks bear some responsibility for their plight. He sympathised with white voters who feel short-changed by affirmative action. And he argued that America is making strides in addressing the racial divide. Mr Wright's mistake was not his anger at America's past sins but his failure to understand that the country is evolving beyond them. Mr Obama's message, in the end, was that his own presidential campaign is the solution to the resentments his pastor expressed.
This was extremely well done, a speech that challenged Americans' intelligence rather than insulting it. Mr Obama went some way towards addressing the criticism that his association with Mr Wright undercuts his message of racial reconciliation. He also demonstrated that he can use his formidable rhetorical powers to address difficult subjects rather than simply to rev up a sympathetic crowd.
But the Wright affair could still cause problems with white voters, particularly the white working-class voters whom Mr Obama has had trouble with in the past, most recently in Ohio. There are two things that annoy these people more than anything else—insulting America and playing the victim card. Mr Wright did not just argue that America's past is imperfect; he blamed it for mass-murder. He did not just complain about slavery; he said that whites are continuing to oppress blacks.
A recent poll suggests the affair could end up costing Mr Obama votes: 56% of all voters and 44% of Democratic voters said that Mr Wright's comments made them less likely to vote for Mr Obama (though 11% of voters said they made them more likely to vote for him). But pundits will have to wait for the Pennsylvania primary, on April 22nd, to see whether this is a blip or a longer-term problem. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Mrs Clinton increasing her lead among white voters in Pennsylvania from 56% to 37% on February 14th to 61% to 33% on February 27th.
Mr Obama's association with the likes of Messrs Wright and Rezko also raises doubts about his judgment, a virtue that he has stressed, particularly over the Iraq war, to trump Mrs Clinton's claim to experience. There is not only the question of why he associated with Mr Wright in the first place (arguing that he represents the “black church” is rather like arguing that Al Sharpton represents the black civil-rights movement). There is also the question of why Mr Obama waited for the recent media firestorm to distance himself from the reverend. Questions about his judgment take on a particular significance at a time when the economy is in trouble, and people are looking for steady leadership.
Mr Obama is not the only candidate with rattling skeletons. Mrs Clinton has refused to release her recent tax returns (as Mr Obama has done) and given everybody the run-around on the question of her White House records. But one thing is clear: the row and the Democratic deadlock are wonderful for John McCain, who is looking like the luckiest man in American politics.
I am for Hillary3:21PMMar 24th 2008
Michelle Obama's inverted views on American progress and bitterness over the "struggles" of her life as a Princeton undergrad, Harvard law, multi-millionaire Senator's wife on the campaign trail to the White House all seem a bit ... much. For all of the New Yorker's gushing about Mrs. Obama's "in-touch" personality, the disgruntled elitist seems, as Podhoretz captures, to have "a chip on her shoulder."
There seems to be an inescapable sense that Michelle Obama doesn't much like America. Her pastor, whom she defends as a grandfatherly figure to whom she must remain loyal, espouses a vile, anti-American, racist vulgarity surpassed only by his mentor - Louis Farrakhan. Despite lobbying from the campaign to soften her vitriolic tone, Michelle Obama has persisted in her unrelenting disparagement of America and American culture (indeed, American citizens).
Such talk smacks of the spoiled, privileged, yet unsatisfied and ever-resentful temperament which white America is loathe to stomach from a prominent politician aiming to draw on moderate support. While Mrs. Obama is undeniably charming and pleasant, her views are not-so-subtly anti-American. While she does not subscribe to the outward appearance and stylistic disquisition of "black power" radicals and racist separationist, I see no substantive difference in the perspective and message emanating from these groups and Mrs. Obama.
Of all those standing on the stage in hopes of gaining the keys to the White House, the most radical might prove to be the one who seemed the least controversial. America might take care to notice the wolf in sheep's clothing.
Is this what we need as first lady?
Palmer3:24PMMar 24th 2008
Just got a email from Slick Willie begging for money. It reads, " It couldn't be any simpler than this: we cannot be competitive politically unless we are competitive financially -- and right now we are at a financial disadvantage."
Like I support his domineering beatch or don;t know where Slick Willie comes from. Like I am going to send money to a campaign that is dead in the water and they both know it. They have no decency, honesty or scruples. What they do have is a lot of lies and false pride. They KNOW Money can not float them the Math and they both recognize that it is over. Still they try to bleed the American public, get every last drop they can out of the gullible mass. Not a money game at this point in the 50-50 split contests left to draw from. Who do they think they are fooling. I guess some people some of the time but not all people all of the time. Give it up;all down hill from here.
McCain 20083:37PMMar 24th 2008
Heh you adolescent hooligans your like a bunch of sick cows chewing your cud over and over and over the same things. I suppose you think the more you chew your cud that it changes something or changes minds. Of all you got is a broken record to play over and over your are locked into a sad state of affairs. Stagnant minds have no growing room. Blind ignorance is not worth listening to. Rational adults are not influenced by listening to sick cows moaning, groaning and chewing their cud over and over. Pick up your blocks children, time to play let's pretend and show and tell that Hillary wins.
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Eleanor Peters1:34PMMar 24th 2008
Tell me in two words what Obama has done for this country ?? Yes he preaches change. WE ALL DO. So he has no great revalation to preach about. Hillary has been a senator for many years and a good one. She has tried to get a good health plan going. She cares about people and situations that HAVE to be changed. The Republicans are all done, unless Obama gets the nomination. Which he does not deserve. Be aware of the pied piper who talks a good talk, but has nothing to back him up to prove it. He did not even sit in on all of the meetings of the senators. He has done NOTHING for this country but talk. He belongs to a raciest church. He backs a raciest church. For 20 years and we are supposed to be gullible enough to belive he is not a raciest ? Let him step down for a woman who HAS tried to help this country. The media has slammed her at everry level, while they play GOD, with a raciest. They do not want Hillary in the Oval office. Do you know why they do not want Hillary as president ? Because she will straighten out this country and get our pride back for us. What will Obama do for us ? He is just a junior senator and should not even be running in this race for the presidency. He has no back ground for it. What will the terrorists say when we vote in one of theirs? They will laugh right in our faces. As even they know Obamas bioliogical father was a Muslim. Try as he may he cannot put himself down as black. Not when his father and step father were both Muslims. It is in his blood. Have you already forgotton ( 9- 11 ? I have not. I am not a raciest. We are all equal in this country and that includes Obama. He is just not ready. But I know right from wrong and to put a Muslim man in as president is a slap in the face to all who lost their lives in 9 -11 , and their families. Vote for Hillary and lets get this country back on it,s feet again. She will do it. GOD BLESS her for all of the abuse the media has given her. She does not deserve that. I am sorry if you do not agree with me. But I have the right to say what I feel as a citizen of this country and my Constitutinal rights.