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Economists on McCain

By Caleb Howe
May 9th 2008 3:32PM

Filed Under:eRepublicans, John McCain, 2008 President

Candidates Rated by EconomistsThe Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog reports today on economists who responded to the question: "Which of the three remaining presidential candidates offers the most responsible fiscal policy proposals in your view?"


The question was part of the Journal's latest economic forecasting survey. About half of the survey participants elected not to answer with a candidate preference. Of those who answered, 75% selected John McCain. The depressing reasoning? "His [policies] are the least horrible," according to James F. Smith of Western Carolina University.


Senator McCain has had mixed results on the economy throughout his campaign. He has long been haunted by his statement to the Boston Globe that "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should." The DNC tried to capitalize on a perceived weakness with an ad that was recently dismissed by FactCheck.org as "factually untrue", determining that, with regard to jobs, "McCain is correct and the ad is wrong."


Within his own party, he suffered for his vote against the Bush tax cuts. Senator McCain now says that, since the tax cuts are already in place, they should remain in place. This stance is seen by Democrats as further evidence of weakness on the economy, although it has strengthened his fiscal credentials among conservatives.


Senator McCain has long been regarded as a spending hawk, and has a particular reputation as opposing pork. He also has a long history of favoring tax cuts and opposing tax increases. That reputation can have mixed results when it comes to voters, and tends to muddy his reputation on the economy at large. As the survey shows, it is no guarantee that he'll be viewed as fiscally strong.


The Wall Street Journal survey showed Senator Clinton in last place, with only one vote versus Senator Obama's six and McCain's twenty-one.


Although economists seem unenthused about our candidates, and though the economy is consistently rated among the top issues or as the top issue in this election, a recent AP Poll indicates that the relative importance of the economy issue to a voter does not seem to have a bearing on their preferred candidate. In fact, among those for whom the economy is the number one issue, the AP Poll showed an increase in their willingness to vote for John McCain over their preference for a Republican candidate in a November poll. Considering that the polled economists for the Wall Street Journal widely rejected the gas tax holiday proposed by Senators McCain and Clinton and yet still broke largely for McCain, the AP poll result seems to bear out.


It's hard to say how economy voters will look at the candidates this fall. If the Wall Street Journal's survey of economists is any indicator, it seems many will find Senator McCain to be the least horrible after all.


H/T to Redstate.

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