Hillary Support Crashing

By Dave
May 9th 2008 7:44AM

Filed Under:eHillary Clinton, 2008 President, Fundraising

As expected following her blowout in NC and squeaker in IN:

The campaign is clearly running low on cash, although advisers would not say how much money - or how little - Mrs. Clinton currently has. The campaign had started April with over $10 million in unpaid debts, and Mrs. Clinton was vastly outspent by Senator Barack Obama in North Carolina and Indiana.

...

Mrs. Clinton had been increasingly relying on Internet donations this spring from new and small-amount contributors; the day after she won the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, the campaign brought in a record $10 million online. But Hassan Nemazee, one of Mrs. Clinton's national finance chairmen, put the amount she collected online in the 24 hours after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries at only "$1 million-plus."

...

Still, other top fund-raisers working for Mrs. Clinton said that enthusiasm among donors had fallen sharply and that they had little confidence there would be a financial turnaround. They said that some donors had questioned why they should give more money when another set of numbers - the calculus to win enough delegates for the nomination - seemed so against Mrs. Clinton at this point.

The one bright spot for Hillary is that the next two primaries are in extremely friendly Clinton territory. Check the map.

Blue is for higher Clinton margin of victory which shows that both Kentucky and WV are smack in the middle of the demographical area that has been swinging for Clinton by large 40 point margins.

Although the Ohio and PA elections she was more viable, but still, if she is able to maintain these blowout conditions, at the very least, her bargaining power will increase over the next couple of weeks, not decrease. She's in it through May, for sure.

Thanks to Jay Cost for the map and he also aptly handles the Puerto Rico question.

There are good reasons not to take Puerto Rico lightly, even though the press has continued to do exactly that. I would note: (a) Puerto Ricans vote in large numbers (2 million in the last gubernatorial election); (b) Puerto Ricans have never had this important a role in United States presidential politics; (c) Puerto Rico's politics is focused at least partially on how (if at all) to adjust its relationship with the United States; (d) Puerto Rico's is an open primary, and the residents of the Commonwealth, who are United States citizens, do not see themselves as Republicans or Democrats.

The inference I draw is that Puerto Ricans could turn out in huge numbers. If they do, and they swing for Clinton in a sizeable way, the popular vote lead could swing, too. Add 290,000 votes from West Virginia and Kentucky to 250,000 votes from Puerto Rico, account for expected losses in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, and you get Clinton leading in many popular vote counts, some of which are really quite valid. If she has one of those leads when the final votes are counted on June 3rd, the race will go on to the convention.

Realistically, she still has only a small shot at the election, but she won't hurt herself by staying in through WV, KY, Oregon, and Puerto Rico.

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