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Obama to Declare Victory on May 21
In a move that will rock the Democratic foundations, Barack Obama will reportedly announce his victory as the Democratic nominee following the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. The bold (perhaps reckless) declaration will excite party loyalists and spark an aggressive response from the Clinton campaign.
Both sides will cite variously tortured numbers in support of their interpretations of the Democratic party's torturous nominating process. Obama's campaign will peg the threshold at 2,025 pledged and super-delegates (a tally excluding Florida and Michigan). Clinton will include those states and demand a total count of 2,209. Yet, Obama will not have met either of those markers following the May 20 primaries. Instead, Obama will have won the majority of pledged delegates (1,627) - excluding, of course, those from Florida and Michigan, which would raise the bar to 1,784 (which Obama will not likely reach on May 20). Clinton will also retort that pledged delegates alone do not win the contest, but only those Illuminati-esque super-delegate can finally award victory. And then there is the whole issue of the popular vote, which might not be in accord with the delegate count (with or without the two states in limbo).
Regardless of the dizzying math and rivaling perspectives, the inescapable result of an Obama declaration of victory will be that Clinton will cry foul. Both campaigns will then inundate the public with interpretations, constructions, statistics and a load of other perplexing formulations which will all boil down to calling the other candidate a cheat. The wedge between Obama and Clinton supporters will widen, and Clinton voters will engender animosities toward Obama which will make their conversion to his camp (following his inevitable nomination) all the more difficult. A Clinton vice-presidency will become less palatable as she resorts to personal dispersions against her too-presumptive challenger.
Obama's early declaration will be premature, and its effect will be to harden Clinton supporters and engulf the Democratic party in a bickering tainted with charges of fraud. Perhaps McCain could be so lucky that one of the campaigns would threaten a lawsuit. Obama's gamble will win him (unneeded) media attention, but it will not secure his nomination any sooner than would otherwise have occurred.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 15)Sue5:47AMMay 9th 2008
My family has always been Democratics my grandparents and parents and I have been all my life and I'm 56 years old.
I've been reading these blogs and doing research and everything to do with the election on line and watching every news channel about the elections. I've been watching Howard Dean closely maybe too closely because now I find that he is the one behind an ideal to defraud the Democrate party with turning everyone against the Clintons because they will not let him have any control. So he decides to put his puppet in the
running someone he can control someone who could steal votes from Hillary and then he can get the voters to follow his puppet because he will use it as way to keep the party together, So he says she is the one destroying the party, then all of her supporter will jump Hillary ship. It all has to do with Howard Dean and his hunger for power!
Howard Dean, you make me sick! Because of you my family and I are jumping ship alright we are leaving the democrate party! I will not be a part of your game plan to destroy the Clintons!
I stand with Hillary Clinton until the end! she loves this country and the people. What she does is for the people! When she leaves this election so will I. I will give my support to John McCain.
Dee6:40AMMay 9th 2008
Please know...that all of us out here...are not buying the "Obama Kool Aid." He is crouched within a giant Trojan Horse that the looney left of the Demo Party is slowly and quietly wheeling toward the gates of the White House. We are all not taken in by this Changeling's slick rhetoric, his constant explanations (is it 4 or 5 different ones now on Rev. Wright, his 60's terrorists buddies and his close association with Tony Rezko?) nor did we miss his snobbish snipping at the middle class who cling to their guns and God when all else fails them. Nor did we miss his wife's dismay at "mean America" his aversion to the flag or his off-guard remarks about his "typical white woman" grandmother. Any journalist that gives this "ticking time bomb" a pass to the White House should be held accountable (at some future date) for this nation's total demise.
JOHN6:41AMMay 9th 2008
I AM A LIFELONG DEMOCRAT,BUT IF OBAMA GETS THE NOMINATION I WILL BE VOTING FOR MCCAIN, AND I WILL VOTE DEMOCRAT FOR THE HOUSE AND SENATE.I FEEL THAT HAVING A REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT AND A DEMOCRAT HOUSE AND SENATE WOULD BE GOOD FOR OUR COUNTRY.
JBRACALE6:52AMMay 9th 2008
YEP HOWARD DEAN IS PUSHING FOR OBAMA, BUT HOWARD DEAN BETTER WATCH OUT, HE MADE A FEW BIG MISTAKES ALREADY WITH FLORIDA & MICHIGAN, AND THAT CAN BE EASYLY REMEDED, SUE THE BASTARD FOR THE SPLIT IN THE PARTY! HE WOULD NEVER EVER BE HEAD OF DNC AGAIN!!! HE IS A SHRUDE CHARACTOR, SOME THINGS WILL BE COMING OUT ABOUT HIM TOO! AS FAR AS HILLARY STOPPING NOW SHE WOULD BE FOOLISH TOO, HEARD SOME STUFF ABOUT AXLERAOD TO OBAMAS ADVISER! HE BETTER START COVERING HIS TRACKS, YOU CAN'T HIDE THOSE FOOTPRINTS TO THE BIG CASH AX!! OBAMA HAS "HAMAS" IN HIS FAVOR ALSO, WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU PEOPLE!!! WAKE UP! AND AS FAR AS HILLARY BEING #2 SHE IS MORE EXPERIENCED THEN OBAMA. SO THAT WOULD NOT WORK! MICHELLE HAS SOME SECRETS ALSO OH WHAT A WEB THEY WEAVE!!!!
JAMBUTLER7:36AMMay 9th 2008
Let the whiner and his loud mouth obnoxious wife have the nomination.......he'll never get the White House. Another Hillary supporter for Mc Cain.
Bambi Slayer7:45AMMay 9th 2008
Life long Democrat will vote for McCant get it done instead of RACIST Obama.
Leslie7:51AMMay 9th 2008
another Super Delegate leaves Hillary for Barack!
Tiny8:03AMMay 9th 2008
Hillary should just become an independent and walk away from the democratic party. They have treated her unfairly now its time for her to get back at them.
sblum8:08AMMay 9th 2008
i will never ever vote for obama, hillary supporter who votes for mccain if obama gets nod here
Davidg8:11AMMay 9th 2008
4 years of McCain is better than 1 minute of Barack Obama.
Does anyone really want to have to listen to him drone on and on and on for 4 years?
I can't even stand to look at Barack Obama. I get that creepy vibe from him. Something is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Find out now or find out later.
Fabman598:18AMMay 9th 2008
Dean ripped the Democratic party in half. He set up Obama to beat Hillary.Obama is nothing but a puppet who will be strung along and it shows that anything can be done to the American people and they will take it like true followers we are. Remember the Kennedy assassination and who they said did it? Gore's lose? Now , anobody, Obama, beating the Clinton political machine? What next?, black woman president? This country never ceases to amaze me. How can Obama be elected to the highest office in this land? I am ashamed
Memphis8:21AMMay 9th 2008
I will revolt from Obama and the Democratic Party if they do not allow the Convention to take place by right. That is why this system is in place and whoever wins needs to be able to run hard, play hard and be inclusive. With the race so close, declaring victory - real or imagined - is inappropriate.
Memphis8:22AMMay 9th 2008
Brilliant comment by American. Insightful. I'm not a conspiracy buff but it's getting hard not to see this as a rigged deal: an unknown, who writes a book and suddenly is up on NYTimes best seller list (those of us writers know how challenging that is for more established people) then all these far left Democratics who will not compromise or work with principles that deviate from their own. Hard to imagine that we've resorted to Republican tactics. I am joining a new party: Socially Progressive Capitalists.
Diann8:22AMMay 9th 2008
Obama is the biggest Marketing/media Hoax there ever has been. . Unfortunately that places our Country in severe Danger. I guess with enough money you can elect a cheese sandwich. Never in our history have we had such an unaccomplished inexperienced, unvetted candidate. By his own admission he is unorganized, he needs people to tell him where to go and what to do. He thinks he is a big picture guy with superior judgement (well I guess that has been proven to be untrue) Whats left? He has never accomplished a thing, and his background is a complete muddle of associations with unsavory charactors. He has completely established himself as the Black /racist candidate with 90+% of the Black vote. Albiet he has used a lot of lies and coercion to get it. In my opinion he is completely unqualified to become president of our country and has come to the position he is in today through Chicago politic chicanery and complete political manipulation. Also he will certainly surround himself with his major supporters who have the same lack of qualifications and experience. We probably will end up having an Administration far worse than the one we currently have and our country will be in dire straights by the end of 2009.
Davidg8:25AMMay 9th 2008
Remember Diann, he "deigns" to do this for us.
The sight of Obama literally makes me physically ill.
dani8:40AMMay 9th 2008
Does anyone here who are for Hillary..think it would do any good to flood the superdelegates with letters urging them to support her?
Davidg8:41AMMay 9th 2008
http://www.correntewire.com/michelle_obama_barack_will_deign_to_enter_politics
Oh lucky us. He deigns.
Susan Nation8:41AMMay 9th 2008
American, right on. Couldn't have said it better.
Frankly, Americans should begin the process of calling for the Hepburn Act, the break up of conglomerate media, or a new act prohibiting media from marketing within the political process. Currently media has used the political process in order to make ... get this ... billions. I recently read that the US political process is no longer a process of the people, that it has become an industry totally some $30 billion dollars a year, equal to the war cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. When it comes to that - we Americans know we are loosing our democracy to BIG DOLLAR.
I know of several groups who are going to petition the US Supreme Court to prohibit media from influencing politics via marketing trends or making a profit on the political system. they are not censoring the political opinion, just the profit that media is making. I think the argument that indirectly politicians and the political process is subsidizing media is a conclusive statement.
Actually, I think its about time to resurrect the Hepburn Act for a number of industries.
“Look at the tyranny of party--at what is called party allegiance, party loyalty--a snare invented by designing men for selfish purposes--and which turns voters into chattles, slaves, rabbits, and all the while their masters, and they themselves are shouting rubbish about liberty, independence, freedom of opinion, freedom of speech, honestly unconscious of the fantastic contradiction” Autobiography of Mark Twain
Cindy8:49AMMay 9th 2008
This is coming from a Caucasian no college education middle class voter. First of all the Clinton supporters that say they will vote for McCain are basing it on emotions right now, the sense of pride. I know I am a Clinton supporter. However I will vote for whoever the candidate is, and I'm telling you so will the others. People ultimately will vote for what is going to benefit them financially. They know that John McCain is supporting a lot of Bush's failed policies. Right now emotions are high, and there is the sense of pride, but they will come back to the party. I have already dealt with the fact that I know it will not be Hillary, as to most of Clinton's top aides know this as well. We might care about our candidates but ultimately they are politicians, we care mostly about our lives and our children. This current economy is hurting us.
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American5:39AMMay 9th 2008
Howard Dean and the Far-Left, Wealthy, Elite of the Democratic Party fear that a second Clinton presidency would also focus on political expediency, reaching out across the isle when necessary, and failing to implement their radical agenda and failing to focus on their attempt to seize total political control.
As a result, the elite of the Democratic Party decided that their best interests would be served by supporting a candidate that would drive forward their agenda and would not depart from the elite party line. The DNC leadership along with the powerful and wealthy far-left elite decided to turn their back on Clinton, just as they previously had turned their back on Joe Lieberman.
So here is the question… How do you overcome the Clinton Political Machine and install your own elitist candidate and take political control of your party? Last fall, Clinton was the quintessential Democratic front-runner. She garnished popular support from nearly every segment of the Democratic Coalition: Low Income and Middle Income Democrats, Democratic Senior Citizens with high voting consistency and turnout, Unionized Democrats, the African-American Community and Hispanic Community.
The Answer… You create your own candidate from a blank slate and opportunistically disenfranchise large segments of the Clinton voter coalition.
The far-left elite of the Democratic Party had found the ideal candidate: A well spoken, inexperienced junior senator from Illinois. Barack Obama was a blank slate: inexperienced (no political skeletons in the closet), a powerful speaker, African-American, and had never crossed party lines or the Democrat Elitist Agenda on any major issue. The wealthy and elite now had their candidate.
Step One: Paint your ideal candidate as a great unifier, able to end the divisiveness in Washington and change the political polarization that Hillary Clinton represented. Although Barack Obama had little experience, he also did not bear the scars of previous political fights or have the political skeletons in his closet. Although Obama has essentially voted directly down party lines and has shown no ability to work with the Republican Party, the DNC, unchallenged, was able to paint the highly liberal Obama as a moderate politician able to transcend party lines.
Step Two: Overcome Obama’s inexperience by utilizing his great speaking skills. Because Obama is a great speaker, he is able to talk about change and focus the election, not on his experience, but on his Judgment of opposing the “evil” Bush Administration. By pushing a highly populist agenda that a large government can solve our individual problems, and deflecting all of our nation’s problems onto the unpopular Bush Administration, American Voters have been hypnotized into overlooking Obama’s policy positions and elitist views. For instance, Obama's calling for an increase in taxes on people making over $200,000 per year, so that the middle class does not suffer higher taxes. But at the same time, calling for the raising or removal of the tax cap on social security; a policy that would automatically increase taxes by over 6% on every middle class American making $80,000 - $200,000 per year.
Step Three: Break up the Clinton voter Coalition. By choosing Obama, as the elite-left’s choice, Dean and his cohorts automatically removed a major segment of the Clinton Coalition: The African American Vote. As any politically attuned person knows, Democrats traditionally carry 80%-90% of the African-American Vote. In a general election the black vote makes up 15%-20% of the electorate, with an even higher ratio of 20%-40% in the democratic primaries. By removing this block of Clinton Supporters, the DNC was able to drastically change the outlook of this primary.
Next, the elite-left leadership put together a strategy for Obama to campaign directly to the middle-upper class of the Democratic Party and take advantage of Obama’s youth and idealistic inexperience to attract the youth vote from the University systems. Although a relative non-factor in past elections, a motivated youth vote could offset the Clinton stronghold on the senior votes.
Step Four: Use A Rove Strategy. During the primary season, candidates have typically relied upon only a handful of key states that vote early in determining the outcome of their candidacy. Most candidates dump a majority of the resources into these key states. Using a Karl Rove type strategy, the elite-left leadership encouraged the Obama Campaign to focus not on states such as New York, California and Massachusetts, where Clinton would likely pick up large numbers of delegates; but rather focus resources on smaller Midwestern caucus states in which voter turnout was typically low (meaning that an influx of younger voters and African-American voters could easily swing the outcome), and Obama could piecemeal enough small victories to offset the delegate counts from the larger states.
The strategy would give Obama an opportunity to make this race tight, but it would also require that he win early and build a lead. Here is where the DNC took full advantage of voters. With 20 states, such as Illinois, moving up there primaries to have a greater influence; states such as Florida and Michigan, which have traditionally been key states in general elections looked to maintain their importance by assuring that their primaries played a more influential role. The problem for the elite-left was that these states were Clinton strongholds, and they knew that the traditionally the candidate who became the front-runner after the early primaries, would also become the benefactor of momentum and massive endorsements as the party unified behind them. In order for the elite-left to maintain any opportunity to seize total control of the party, they made the decision not to penalize Florida and Michigan, but rather to completely strip these states of their delegates; disenfranchising millions over Democratic voters residing in key general election states. Prior to the DNC delegate stripping plan, most pendants expected the DNC to penalize candidates who campaigned in these states with up to half of the delegates from the states. Thereby, allowing Florida and Michigan voters to have a strong influence in the election, but also penalize the states by removing the campaign attention they received. The stripping of Florida and Michigan’s delegates is not only important because these were well-known Clinton strongholds, but more importantly, the early momentum Clinton would have gained from these contests would have carried over into Super Tuesday.
Dean and the rest of the far-left elite knew first hand the importance of the earliest primaries. Dean’s ailing campaign experienced a boom of momentum and funds after his early victory in the 2004 primaries, quickly becoming a front-runner who self-destructed as quickly as he had risen. With Florida and Michigan’s 350+ delegates removed (roughly 8%-9% of the total available delegates) the elite focused on the Iowa caucuses. Knowing that Clinton & Edwards would split the working class vote, Obama’s campaign was able to take the state. With Iowa came momentum, a wholesale shift in African-American Support, and a steady flow of elite democratic endorsements.
The wealthy and elite far-left of the party however still had to overcome the other large states where Clinton garnished support. They needed to take advantage of the ways delegates were awarded in order to suppress a potential comeback by Clinton. On Super Tuesday and afterwards, the Obama campaign and far left have focused on caucus states with lower turnout and more easily manipulated by the influx of first time African-American and youth vote turnout. Building a small lead on Super Tuesday, the elite left began rolling out endorsement after endorsement for Obama, and worked diligently to create the façade that Obama’s delegate lead could not be overcome. In previous primaries, these endorsements and calls to unity worked, and Dean and the Elite-Left assumed that the unprepared Clinton campaign would fade quietly into the night, therefore solidifying their power-grab.
The Clinton’s fight-on not only to preserve their families’ political influence, but I believe that because both Clinton’s genuinely care about the United States and are proud of this nation. Although Hillary Clinton continues to campaign on a populist platform, which I believe is not what has made this country great, she does maintain a genuine concern and appreciation of the public. Unlike Obama, Clinton does not view this nation as a second-class society that needs to have their hands held by those few enlightened individuals who look down upon America and speak to Americans as if we are misguided children.
STEP FIVE: DO NOT TREAT ALL VOTES EQUALLY. Our forefathers had the insight to abandon a pure democratic society and implement policies that would equalize & protect American voters from politicians that would pander on focus on only densely populated areas, unequally distributing rights and wealth into these areas, in an attempt to secure and maintain political power. They understood that the lifeblood of our vast and diverse nation existed in every American, not just in the big cities. It is ironic that today, the very fear of our founding fathers is coming to fruition before our very eyes. The elite-left understood that with their proportional delegation system, that if Obama could piecemeal together enough delegates through the caucus states, and states with a large African-American turnout, then his home state of Illinois would give him enough delegates to prevent Clinton from overcoming his narrow lead. The Elite-Left focused on imbalanced delagatory policies that existed within Clinton Strongholds.
Texas: Clinton wins a majority vote with a 4 point lead. Clinton also wins in over 80% of all counties in Texas and 18 of the 31 congressional districts. Yet, after the Texas caucuses in which less than 10% of Texas democrats participated, Obama walks away 99 Delegates to Clinton’s 93, essentially disenfranchising the 1.45 million Texans that gave Clinton a Primary Victory.
Ohio: Clinton Wins Ohio by 10 points (54%-44%), a landslide by political standards. Obama only wins in 5 of the over 70 counties in the state, and Clinton also achieves victories in 14 of the 18 congressional districts. Yet, because of delegates being disproportionately awarded to districts in densely populated areas, Obama walks away with nearly 47% of the delegates.
Pennsylvania: Clinton wins by 9 points, again a landslide by political standards.
Clinton wins in over 90% of counties and 14 of 19 congressional districts. Yet, like Ohio, Obama walks away with nearly 47% of the delegates.
In reality, as of May 2nd, Obama only led Clinton by 159 pledged delegates, less than 5% of the total available Democratic Delegates. Obama also leads the popular vote, not including the disenfranchised Florida and Michigan by around 500,000 votes. In Illinois, Obama won by more than 600,000 votes. Yet these numbers don’t include the millions of votes disenfranchised in Florida and Michigan; and the inconsistent and imbalanced method of awarding delegates in states such as Pennsylvania, who clearly demonstrate that a vote in Pittsburgh doesn’t quite equal a vote in Pennsylvania.
Howard Dean and his far-left, wealthy, and elitist backers, expected the Clinton Campaign to fold after Super Tuesday. Supported by elitist endorsements, media friendly coverage of Obama, and the disenfranchisement of millions of Democratic voters nationwide, the elitist far-left has clearly shown that this election is not about working class America but rather about power.
I commend the Clinton campaign for continuing to fight for what they believe is best for this nation. Democratic Elite have blamed the Clintons for causing chaos in the Democratic Primaries and possibly damaging the party in November. However, let’s remember that until January, Clinton was the front-runner and presumably would be anointed the Democratic nominee. Most political analysts agreed that unless she stumbled and fell, or self-destructed, she could not lose the nomination. The fact is that Hillary Clinton did not stumble or fall, her campaign did not self-destruct. So I ask: What Changed????
Many political pundits want to compare this primary season to the political civil wars that happened in 1912 and 1968. However, unlike those previous party breakups whereas moderates battled for control against the far-right or far-left; the civil war occurring now in the Democratic party is being fought by the far-left elitist faction and the left-of-center Clinton machine, with moderate Democrats dumbfounded sitting on the sidelines. Now is the time for moderate Democrats to stand up to the rich, elitist, far-left leadership of their party and end the polarization caused by these elitists who will suppress any voice of opposition and end the madness.
Sidenote: How is it that John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, and the Governor of Massachusetts, all super delegates, support a candidate that lost by 15 points among their constituents? Perhaps, just perhaps, power is more important than the voters.
J Brown
05/05/2008